When I woke up, it was already 82 dollars. Normally, at 82 dollars, I would plan to exit more than half to take profits, but since I bought so little multiple times, there’s no point in exiting half, so I’ll just hold on. If the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran intensifies at any time, I will close my position.

Currently, I see the oil price hitting 78 dollars in this wave, as 78 dollars is the price where the market spiked during the first complete ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. I’m not very certain, but shorting WTI is definitely not a wrong move. If everything goes smoothly and the Strait of Hormuz opens up, I can see it going to 65 dollars.

Signing does not mean opening. When the Strait of Hormuz officially opens, I will continue to add to my position. Because after opening, it will certainly take some time for the oil price to stabilize, probably around three months.

So even though the long-term target is 65 dollars, it’s likely to reach that position slowly.

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