Today I closed the remaining 25% position at around $87, marking the end of my third short position in WTI. The overall profit is around 70%, which is acceptable. I originally thought that with Trump making such a big stir today, oil prices would spike up a bit. So before heading out, I adjusted my purchase price from $90.5 to $91. When I just got home, I saw that the highest today was $90.53, which is a bit frustrating.
If I had bought in, this position would also be fine, I missed out on a small profit due to being greedy, but if the conflict really escalates, a bottom position at $91 would still be okay. However, I'm not sure how high this peak can reach. At least from the current trends of WTI and Brent, the market does not believe there will be a significant impact on oil prices.
In general, my stance on WTI or Brent is to short at highs, and I have already gained profits three times. The current price trend aligns closely with my expectations; this time I anticipated around $85, so when it reached $85, I exited most of my position. I really think it's hard to fully recover in the short term, but that's precisely what gives us the opportunity to short at high levels.
Looking back at Bitcoin's data, today the price of bitcoin:native is notably stronger than US stocks. The Nasdaq and S&P both fell by about 2% today, while Bitcoin still had a slight increase. This suggests that the new attraction around $60,000 is indeed quite high, as at this level more investors are willing to buy.
Currently, the turnover rate does not show signs of panic, and of course, this is also related to the fact that Bitcoin had already dropped significantly beforehand. The major test ahead should be the Fed's policy meeting, and this time there’s also a dot plot.
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