I will briefly talk about my thoughts on participating in Space X -

First of all, the issue price is indeed quite expensive, the actual cost is 140u, but aiming for the narrative of "the first stock of human destiny," I want to participate.

I mentioned a couple of days ago:

SpaceX is financing with new shares, old shareholders cannot sell directly at the time of the IPO.

The Nasdaq has already modified its rules, and after 15 trading days of Space X on the market, it can be included in the Nasdaq 100, while the inclusion waiting period for FTSE Russell is only 5 trading days.

This means that a large number of ETFs and index funds will passively buy to seize shares; just for the Nasdaq, it is estimated that it might bring in 8 billion in mechanical buying pressure.

But the problem is: the market will trade this forced buying in advance; frankly speaking, if you want to sell to the ETF, others also want to sell to the ETF.

From a stock price perspective, SpaceX’s biggest peculiarity is that the circulation is too small, which means that its early stock price could be very distorted:

If the buying pressure is slightly concentrated, it could easily skyrocket; if the selling pressure is slightly concentrated, it could easily cause a stampede.

This means that, during the first 15 trading days, the probability of Space X becoming a speculative stock is approximately 80%.

I am observing these points:

1⃣ If it soars on the first day, the index buying pressure is likely already priced in;

2⃣ Watch the trading feedback after the FTSE Russell inclusion on the 5th trading day, there may be a peak and pullback in the 5-10 days;

3⃣ Days 10-15 will be the climax of short-term event trading, akin to a party on a grave.

Therefore, in any case, within 15 trading days, I will sell 80% of my position, or exit entirely.

This is somewhat transparent, but not necessarily correct, and does not represent any investment advice!

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