At 20:30 tonight (Singapore time), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is the last key inflation report before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on June 16-17, and it represents a critical window for the market to assess a potential shift in Fed policy.
In the past week, the non-farm employment data has been unexpectedly strong, coupled with the geopolitical situation in the Middle East driving up energy prices, which has made the risk of inflation rebounding the focus of the market. If the data meets expectations, the Federal Reserve will most likely keep interest rates unchanged; if it exceeds expectations, the dual signals of a hot job market and warming inflation will quickly reshape market pricing, potentially cooling expectations for rate cuts this year, or even opening space for future rate hikes.
Current estimates predict that the overall CPI for May will rise to 4.2% year-on-year (previous value 3.8%), and the core CPI will rise to 2.9% year-on-year (previous value 2.8%). Energy prices (especially gasoline) are the main driving force. Institutions like MUFG Research have pointed out that if this reading materializes, it will confirm that inflation remains "sticky," making it difficult for the Fed to easily pivot towards easing.
Investment banks like Goldman Sachs have recently adjusted their expectations: following strong non-farm data, they have postponed their forecast for the first rate cut to mid-2027. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of maintaining interest rates at the June FOMC meeting is still over 96%, but the probability of at least one rate hike by the end of the year has risen to 60%-70%.
Bitcoin tests key support
Bitcoin and gold are highly sensitive to CPI data. Currently, Bitcoin hovers around $61,000-$63,000, while gold has fallen back to approximately $4,200-$4,300 per ounce. If tonight's CPI meets consensus, there will still be short-term downward pressure; if it exceeds expectations, BTC may directly test support at $58,000-$59,000, or even drop to $55,000.
（AiCoin K-line chart, price alerts can be set）
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Will a gold-like bull market reappear?
Beyond short-term fluctuations, if inflation continues to rise, the U.S. economy may fall into a "high inflation + low growth" stagflation predicament. In the 1970s, under similar conditions, gold experienced a super bull market lasting ten years, and its value as a classic anti-inflation asset will be repriced. Although Bitcoin is under short-term pressure, if inflation persists long-term, institutions may shift some allocation to "digital gold" as a hedge.
This CPI report is not only a numeric game but also a magnifying glass for policy signals. In recent months, inflation has risen from 2.4% to 3.8%, with energy transmission becoming the mainline. If the May data confirms this trend, the Federal Reserve's "easing window" will narrow further, with the number of rate cuts this year potentially reduced from 2 to 0-1.
Market sentiment and risk warning
Real-time opinions from social media and institutions show that investor sentiment has shifted from "optimistic about rate cuts" to "cautiously waiting." U.S. stocks, after a significant drop during Tuesday's trading, narrowed their losses, with funds flowing towards defensive sectors. Regardless of tonight's data, the June FOMC dot plot will become the next focus. In this increasing uncertainty, asset allocation must balance "defense" and "hedging": controlling positions in the short term and paying attention to support levels; for the medium to long term, strategically allocate anti-inflation assets.
At 20:30 tonight, the answer will emerge. Will inflation softly land, or will it rebound sharply? Where will Bitcoin and gold go in the macro wave?
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