1. Key observations on the Middle East situation
- Iran launched 10 missiles to attack Israeli northern air force bases on the night of 6/7, the Israeli military claimed all were intercepted
- Trump clearly stated "advising Israel not to retaliate," while Iran said "just a warning, if Israel counterattacks, we will expand the strike range"
- Focus on 6/9: results of the Israeli security cabinet meeting, progress in U.S.-Iran diplomatic communication
2. Market sentiment and liquidity
- Fear and greed index at 8 (extreme fear), at a historical low range
- Over the night, 24-hour total liquidation across the network amounted to $667 million, including $541 million in short positions (81%), with the largest single liquidation at $12.2796 million
- Last week, BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $172 million (the largest single-week redemption since June 2025), institutional sentiment remains cautious
3. On-chain and sector events
- Zcash privacy vulnerability incident escalates: Anthropic AI discovers a method to crack Zcash anonymity, ZEC first dropped 40% and then rebounded nearly 20%, triggering a trust crisis in established privacy public chains
- Ethereum Layer2 sector leads the rebound, ARB and OP both up over 10%, with evident signs of capital flowing back

II. Market impact analysis

- Short term (6/9-6/10): Oversold rebound + temporary easing of geopolitical risks, likely a bullish consolidation, but with insufficient volume and fragile confidence, may reverse due to news at any moment
- Medium term (1-2 weeks): Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on June 18, the market will maintain high volatility and range-bound patterns, ETF capital flows remain a core indicator
- Sector strength ranking: ETH>L2 sector>BTC>AI concepts>privacy coins, low market cap altcoins have the most volatility and highest risk

III. Market analysis (key price levels)

BTC (Current: $63,400)

- Support levels:
- First support: $62,000 (previous rebound starting point + short-term moving average support)
- Strong support: $60,000 (psychological level + near weekend low)
- Extreme level: $59,000 (breaking this would end the rebound trend)
- Resistance levels:
- First resistance: $65,000 (previous dense trading area)
- Strong resistance: $68,000 (previous platform level before this downturn)
- Technical analysis: 4-hour chart MACD golden cross, RSI rebounding from the oversold area to 45, but volume not effectively expanded, the rebound is not a reversal, still part of a corrective trend after the decline

ETH (Current: $1,680)

- Support levels:
- First support: $1,650 (yesterday's breakout level)
- Strong support: $1,600 (short-term bull-bear divide)
- Resistance levels:
- First resistance: $1,750 (previous downturn gap)
- Strong resistance: $1,850 (previous platform level before this downturn)
- Technical analysis: Clearly stronger relative to BTC, significant capital inflow, the 4-hour chart breaking the downward trend line, if can hold above $1,700, may initiate a new round of rebound first

Contracts (aggressive type, leverage ≤ 5 times)

- Long positions:
- BTC: Long lightly at $62,800-63,200, stop loss at $62,000; target $64,500-65,000
- ETH: Long lightly at $1,660-1,680, stop loss at $1,630; target $1,730-1,750
- Short positions:
- BTC: If obstructed at $65,000-65,500, can go short, stop loss at $66,200; target $63,500-63,000
- ETH: If obstructed at $1,750-1,770, can go short, stop loss at $1,800; target $1,680-1,670

Risk warning and operational discipline
Attention to news front: Middle East situation may change at any time, if Israel announces retaliation, immediately reduce positions to avoid risks
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