Author: BruceBlue, former Bing Ventures GP

How did the mysterious researcher Serenity earn over 225% returns in just 2 years?

Identify the irreplaceable physical switches in the AI era using supply chain bottleneck theory (Checkpoint Theory).

Use bottom-up supply chain reverse engineering thinking to find choke points.

Before making any investment assumptions, engage in intense debates with various AI models to identify potential vulnerabilities and limitations, comparable to a top-tier investment IC.

Preface

In the past few months, if you have been following the secondary market of AI infrastructure, it is hard to avoid one name: Serenity@aleabitoreddit

A former trader permanently banned from Reddit's WallStreetBets (WSB), switched platforms, and with an anime female avatar, gathered over 300,000 followers in less than a year. One of his tweets can cause FTSE 250 component stocks to soar nearly 90% in two days, his research has been quoted by Bloomberg and Reuters, and even hedge funds are copying his trades.

The market is amazed by his astonishing 22,561.99% return over the past two years, or questions his unverifiable background: “former AI research scientist,” “Nature paper author,” “member of the RISC-V foundation,” even claiming he rejected an offer to join NVIDIA’s AI team when their stock was around $6 in 2018.

Serenity's AI holding list

But what truly matters is not his dazzling numbers, nor whether he actually published papers in Nature.

What truly matters is: he provided a paradigm for reverse engineering observations in the AI era and completed violent informational arbitrage in Wall Street's institutional blind spots.

The core of this paradigm, he calls Chokepoint Theory (Supply Chain Bottleneck Theory).

From WSB Gambler to Supply Chain Detective: A Shift in Identity

Let’s provide some background. His story began in early 2022 on Reddit's famous retail investor forum r/wallstreetbets (WSB).

At that time, the account was called AleaBito, characterized by a distinct WSB retail flavor, enthusiastic about high-leverage, high-risk, and highly entertaining options and IPO trades. He once executed a one-way options “YOLO” trade of up to $175,000 during the eToro ($ETOR) IPO due to a meme logic that bizarrely resembled “Bluefin Tuna Belly (Toro)” on technical charts. In trading Hims & Hers Health ($HIMS), he allocated $100,000 based on the “Gym Bro Formation.” Additionally, when the stock price of Super Micro Computer ($SMCI) was at a low, he accurately predicted that the price would break through $120 based on the development of liquid cooling technology.

┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐

│ @aleabitoreddit / The path of Serenity's evolution

├────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤

│ Reddit Phase (Before 2022): AleaBito

│ Style: Combining hardcore financial analysis with highly entertaining “WSB retail” narrative, preferring high-risk “YOLO”

│ Track Record: $ETOR (Bluefin Tuna Belly), $HIMS (Gym Bro), $SMCI (predicted breakthrough at low point of $120)

│

│ X Platform Phase (2022 to present): Serenity

│ Style: Focused on AI data center hardware, silicon photonics, advanced packaging with “bottom-up” supply chain reverse engineering

│ Track Record: $RPI, $SIVE, Soitec, $VLN, $NBIS

└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

The turning point occurred in early 2022 when he published a deep fundamental research report on the US compound semiconductor substrate manufacturer Axcelis Technologies ($AXTI) on WSB. At that time, $AXTI had a market capitalization of only $200 million, and the stock price was around $12. Due to the professionalism of the report contrasting sharply with the speculative atmosphere of the forum, the moderators permanently banned the account for “deliberately guiding public opinion” and “pump and dump.”

Afterwards, $AXTI surged to $70 driven by a skyrocketing demand for compound semiconductors and photonic substrates, achieving over 1000% floating profits and becoming the “battle of fame” in this researcher's investment career. This banning incident directly led to his migration to X Platform, and after renaming himself “Serenity,” he completely focused his investment on the “choke point” segments of semiconductor core hardware and precision supply chains.

Core Framework: Finding the “Strait of Hormuz” in the AI Era

Most sell-side institutions on Wall Street perceive AI from a top-down perspective. They focus on Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, calculating trillion-dollar Capex guidance, engaging in intense mathematical modeling games around next quarter's revenue.

Serenity's perspective is bottom-up. He employs a supply chain reverse engineering model.

Using Nvidia's H100, B200, and other GPU supercomputer clusters as the physical origin, he deconstructs layer by layer until he uncovers ultra-small components or raw materials that cannot be replaced at the physical level and are monopolized by a single or very few enterprises. These extremely niche areas operate quietly outside the spotlight of trillion-dollar market caps; however, once a supply disruption occurs, the entire downstream AI industry clusters face physical paralysis.

He refers to these nodes as “choke points” and likens them to the Strait of Hormuz controlling global oil channels or the perilla leaves in high-end kaiseki cuisine that are indispensable yet unnoticed.

• Integration of physical and geographic coordinates map

Serenity has constructed a precise global semiconductor “choke point” physical and geopolitical map. This map encompasses US stocks, Taiwanese stocks, European stocks, and Japanese stocks, and integrates the geographic coordinates of every segmented giant in the supply chain, technology patent barriers, geopolitical risks, and various countries' export control policies in a multi-dimensional way. When new geopolitical conflicts, export bans, or earnings reports occur, he can quickly locate specific physical nodes on the supply chain map and make highly certain directional bets using his concentrated stock positions.

• Adversarial AI Proof Testing

Before formally publishing any investment assumptions, Serenity has a unique “red-blue adversarial” proof process. He inputs research drafts to various large language models, commanding AI to act as an extremely rigorous “devil's advocate,” specifically identifying vulnerabilities in his investment logic, technical physical limitations, alternative threat scenarios, and potential valuation biases. Only after passing several rounds of technical and logical interrogation by AI does he release the report.

Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) Physical Barriers

In Serenity's supply chain map, the physical evolution of data center AI computing infrastructure is its core investment theme.

With the exponential growth of parameter sizes in large language models, the interconnection of GPU clusters with tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands, or even millions has become a physical bottleneck for computing expansion. Under extremely high data throughput, traditional copper cable interconnections face insurmountable physical limits: high-frequency electrical signals cause extreme attenuation, uncontrollable electromagnetic interference, as well as high costs of power consumption and heat dissipation.

To break this “copper wall,” the process of converting electrical signals into optical signals for high bandwidth, low latency transmission, referred to as “light in and copper out,” has become an essential path for building AI infrastructure. The frontier of this physical layer transformation is the “Co-Packaged Optics” (CPO) architecture, led by giants like TSMC and NVIDIA.

The core idea of CPO is to directly integrate the optoelectronic conversion chip with the core computing chip on the same multi-chip packaging substrate, shortening the transmission distance of electrical signals within the package to millimeters. This revolutionary architecture has five major physical barriers “choke points” that Serenity focuses on:

Serenity's CPO reverse engineering roadmap:

Nvidia H100/B200 cluster (tens of thousands interconnection requirements)

│

▼

Light in and copper out (breaking the physical limits of copper cables: attenuation, power consumption, heat dissipation)

│

▼

┌────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐

│ Five Physical Barriers of Silicon Photonics and CPO (Choke Points)

│

│ 1. High-precision physical alignment: fiber array unit (FAU) and micro lenses

│ → $FOCI (Formosa, Taiwan): Indispensable physical choke point position

│

│ 2. External light sources (ELS) and high-power continuous wave (CW) DFB lasers

│ → $SIVE (Sivers, Sweden): Extremely scarce physical assets in 1.6T LRO/CPO

│

│ 3. Molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) equipment barriers

│ → $ALRIB (Riber, France): Global monopolist, choke point for epitaxy manufacturers' “capacity”

│

│ 4. High-purity red phosphorus raw materials (purity needs to reach 6N-7N, above 99.9999%)

│ → NCI (Nippon Chemical Industry, Japan): Monopolized by a few specialty chemical giants

│

│ 5. Substrate: silicon on insulator (SOI) substrate materials

│ → Soitec (France): Absolute monopolist in global technology and production capacity with Smart-Cut patent

└────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

• High-precision physical alignment barrier

Due to the waveguide sizes inside silicon photonic chips typically being at the sub-micron level, this requires nanometer-level physical alignment between the optical fibers introduced from the outside and the waveguides. Any slight displacement can cause significant “optical coupling loss.” Serenity was the first to systematically anchor the locally revered Formosa (FOCI, 3363.TW) to the global CPO technology evolution in the English-speaking world.

• External light source (ELS) and high-power continuous wave DFB laser barrier

Silicon, being an indirect bandgap semiconductor, cannot achieve high-efficiency light emission under electrical injection. The CPO architecture must rely on independent external light sources to provide high-power continuous wave lasers. This laser must maintain single longitudinal mode operation in a high-temperature high-pressure data center environment, requiring extremely high process specifications. Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE), listed in Stockholm, possesses the relevant technology and has become an extremely scarce physical asset in the CPO external light source supply chain.

• Molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) equipment barrier

In the growth of compound semiconductor epitaxial wafers like high-power lasers, the core physical process is molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), which allows the growth of ultra-thin crystalline films with atomic-level precision. Serenity has locked in the absolute monopolist of global MBE equipment: Riber ($ALRIB), a French public company.

• High-purity red phosphorus raw material barrier

Manufacturing compound semiconductors (such as indium phosphide substrates) requires extremely stringent raw material purity. Serenity traced the reverse engineering down to the most fundamental chemical element: high-purity red phosphorus (purity above 99.9999%). Production capacity is nearly entirely monopolized by a few Japanese giants like Nippon Chemical Industry (NCI). Once the supply is interrupted, the downstream will come to a complete standstill.

• Silicon on Insulator (SOI) substrate material barrier

The underlying wafers of silicon photonic chips require the use of SOI wafers. France's Soitec has an absolute global technological and production monopolistic position in the silicon photonic SOI wafer market due to its proprietary Smart-Cut technology, as even Japan's Shin-Etsu Chemical must pay royalty fees for its patents.

Geopolitical Game of “Physical Switches” in Humanoid Robots and Rare Earth Resources

In 2026, Serenity will further expand his “choke point” map to the geopolitical game involving humanoid robots and rare earth resources.

• The supply chain rift between the software “brain” and hardware “body”

The market's discussion about Tesla Optimus mostly focuses on AI algorithms and large models, overlooking a fatal physical fact: the United States is losing the hardware and materials manufacturing race for humanoid robots.

The “brain” of humanoid robots is retained in the United States, but the components responsible for movement (“body” components such as joints, actuators, reducers, etc.) are almost entirely controlled by Asian manufacturers:

• Harmonic Reducers: Harmonic Drive (Japan), Greentec (China)
• RV Reducers: Nabtesco (Japan), Duosida (China)
• Linear Actuators: SMI (China)
• Servo Systems and Ball Screw: Inovance (China)

To lower costs, American robotics companies have signed long-term contracts with these component giants from China and Japan. This high level of dependency means that if geopolitical friction arises, the hardware supply chain will face physical stalling.

• Rare Earth “Demand Tsunami” and Morgan Stanley Model

Serenity quotes Morgan Stanley's demand forecasting model for quantitative deduction: if the global stock of humanoid robots reaches 1 billion by 2050, their consumption of core rare earth resources will generate a disastrous “demand tsunami”:

• Neodymium (Nd): cumulative consumption of about 400,000 tons (15% of the known global reserves)
• Dysprosium (Dy): cumulative consumption of about 80,000 tons (25% of the known global reserves)
• Terbium (Tb): cumulative consumption of about 16,000 tons (30% of the known global reserves)

These are the physical necessities for maintaining permanent magnet motors under high temperatures without demagnetizing. Serenity emphasizes that if Western capital wants to ensure supply chain safety, it must direct billions of dollars towards rebuilding a domestic rare earth refining ecosystem.

Based on this, he listed three physical sectors that must be closely monitored:

• Magnetic metals: light rare earths (Neodymium, Praseodymium), heavy rare earths (Dysprosium, Terbium), special magnets (Samarium, Cobalt).
• Structural metallurgy: precision gear materials (Titanium, Vanadium, Molybdenum), high-strength steel additives (Niobium, Chromium, Nickel, Manganese), anti-wear elements (Cerium, Lanthanum).
• Computing, perception, and power systems: advanced semiconductors (Gallium, Germanium), batteries and wiring (each consuming 2kg of Lithium, 3kg of Graphite, 6.5kg of Copper).

Core Target Case Studies and Empirical Performance Evaluation

Through keen capture of technological barriers and commercialization inflection points, Serenity has successfully explored and led the value reevaluation of multiple classic mid- and low-market value tech stocks in various global capital markets.

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│ Core investment targets and empirical performance verification of Serenity

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│ $RPI (Raspberry Pi) | LSE United Kingdom

│ Positioning: Physical base for AI intelligence group control

│ Starting Point: stock price below 280 pence (IPO issue price)

│ Verification: Strong profit growth reported in March 2026 annual report, chip sales surged 47%, validating its logic on AI foundations

│ Performance: Stock skyrocketed nearly 40% on the day of the earnings announcement, rebounding over 60% from the bottom

│

│ $SIVE (Sivers) | Stockholm Sweden

│ Positioning: Core supplier of high-power external light sources for silicon photonics CPO DFB lasers

│ Starting Point: Recommended when the market cap was only $130 million

│ Verification: Strategic partnership with Jabil, received $6.6 million support from the US CHIPS Act

│ Performance: The market cap soared nearly 19 times within a year post-recommendation (now exceeds $2.3 billion)

│

│ Soitec | Euronext Paris France

│ Positioning: Global patent and production monopoly of silicon photonic SOI key substrate materials

│ Starting Point: stock price at €43 lower range

│ Verification: Listed as a category exclusive material standard by TSMC and NVIDIA

│ Performance: On the day the viewpoint was published, the European market stock surged 16% instantly

│

│ $VLN (Valens) | NYSE United States

│ Positioning: Automotive A-PHY high-speed transmission chip

│ Starting Point: Bottom of $253 million market cap (recommended when holding cash of $93.5 million, zero debt, and around 60-62% gross margin guidance)

│ Verification: Identified mispricing due to a “code collision” error in scanners

│ Performance: By pointing out the “code collision” bug, guided the market to reassess the asset

│

│ $NBIS (Nebius Group) | NASDAQ United States

│ Positioning: Largest AI GPU/Rubin computing cluster cloud service provider in Europe

│ Starting Point: Around $95 retracement bottom area

│ Verification: Holding $3.7 billion in net cash (by end of 2025), backlog of unfulfilled contracts approaching $50 billion

│ Performance: Returned to a high-growth trajectory, analyst target price raised to $158-$211

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In-depth analysis: Three dimensions of cognitive arbitrage

• Raspberry Pi $RPI: Relative Value Game Model

When the market viewed Raspberry Pi as a declining education component manufacturer, Serenity captured the dramatic change in the AI developer ecosystem: numerous startups were hoarding Raspberry Pi as a physical isolation base for deploying “AI intelligence group control systems.” If buying an Apple Mac Mini causes no waves in Apple’s $3.7 trillion pie; for the Raspberry Pi with a market value of only £500 million, this is a disruptive boost.

• Valens Semiconductor $VLN: Quantitative Code Collision Information Arbitrage

$VLN has $93.5 million in net cash, zero debt, and around 60-62% gross margin guidance, locking in a pre-installation deal with Mercedes, yet the market cap is only $253 million. Serenity discovered a physical bug: the mainstream quantitative stock selection scanners have a “trading code collision error,” mixing up $VLN’s data with the Canadian exchange energy stock $VLO, causing key metrics to be severely distorted. He accurately enumerated the deviations, guiding the funds to a “mine clearance”-style reassessment.

• Nebius Group $NBIS: Deep Bottom Capture in Mechanical Panic

As Europe's leading AI-exclusive cloud service provider, $NBIS suffered a drastic decline in its stock price to $95 due to mechanical arbitrage from early complex convertible bond hedging. Serenity pointed out that this was a case of “mechanical panic from non-fundamental factors.” At the $95 price, the market gave an extremely absurd discount to a company that projected revenue guidance of $3-3.4 billion (nearly 6 times growth) by 2026 and was holding several billion dollars in net cash.

Retail Capital Synergy and Potential Structural Risks

• Expert Retail Investor Synergy Network

In Serenity's framework, retail investors are no longer merely providing liquidity or blindly following as “chives” but are reshaped into a type of “expert retail investor synergy network.” Traditional WSB relies on short-term options gamma squeezes or emotional memes to propel explosive rises. In contrast, Serenity conducted a profound “intellectual filtration” on followers through its completely free, high-threshold hardcore analysis.

This highly specialized capital synergy enables them to quickly coalesce into force in globally numerous extremely illiquid micro-cap markets that Wall Street firms cannot cover, completing the price domination of core assets.

• Institutional Blind Spots and Information Arbitrage

Analysts from large institutions are constrained by internal compliance, minimum market value thresholds (e.g., not covering companies below $1 billion), and regional specialization (US stock analysts do not write research on Sweden or Taiwan). This has created a vast research vacuum in the global supply chain. As a completely anonymous independent researcher, Serenity ignores market value and geographical barriers, directly guiding global bullish capital to violently fill these vacuum zones.

• Structural Risks and Potential Game Dilemmas

However, blind adherence to this strategy comes with unavoidable risks:

• Liquidity depletion and stampede risks (Liquidity Traps): Micro-cap shares have extremely low average trading volumes. When retail investors flood in, trading volume suddenly spikes; if technological implementations fall short of expectations, extremely narrow exit channels will lead to severe stampedes.
• Polarization of opinion and “operator” accusations: Experienced short sellers sharply criticize it as a form of “pump and dump with a high IQ academic facade.” Its characteristics of utilizing massive public opinion volume to attract retail investors puts it under long-term exposure to compliance accusations.
• Deadly minefields of singular physical technology path dependence: All of Serenity's core positions are based on the assumptions that “CPO is the only physical evolution route” and “humanoid robots will see an explosion of 1 billion units.” This is a gamble. If NVIDIA discovers that there are insurmountable engineering bottlenecks in CPO and switches to advanced thin-film copper cables, or if the West fails to rebuild the rare earth separation chain, his entire supply chain empire built on silicon photonics, SOI, MBE equipment, and heavy rare earths will be instantly dismantled at the physical level.

In Conclusion: Deep Dimensional Strikes of Geeks Against the Breadth of Finance

Following Serenity is not about seeking a code for wealth, but about acquiring an analysis framework that breaks consensus.

In this era of information overload, the most common mistake retail investors make is to compete with institutions in the speed of information retrieval, or to trade on macro data that has already been sufficiently priced. Serenity demonstrates another possibility: deconstructing systems through reverse engineering, using AI as the “devil's advocate” to challenge one's logic, looking for those silent gears that truly control the system's operation.

You do not need to become the next Serenity. You do not have to buy any stock he buys.

But you should learn to ask a question like he does:

In this system, who is that silent, irreplaceable physical switch?

If you can answer this question, you have already gained a perspective that is one layer deeper than 99% of market participants. The rest is just waiting for the market to catch up with your understanding.

Disclaimer:

This article does not constitute any investment advice.

All background information on Serenity is self-reported and unverified by third parties.

His historical performance does not guarantee future results.

Please conduct independent research before making any investment decisions.

NFA. DYOR.