1. Market Overview: Low-level Consolidation, Light Trading

Today is May 26, 2026, Tuesday. Bitcoin is now between $76,500 and $77,000, down about 0.6% in the last 24 hours. Ethereum has fallen below $2,100, around $2,090, also weakening. The total market capitalization is about $2.66 trillion, with volatility narrowing, presenting a typical consolidation pattern.

The spot trading volume is approximately $2.97 billion, and the futures trading volume is about $43.5 billion, both at recent lows.

2. Macroeconomics and News: Bulls and Bears Intertwined

1. Geopolitical Risks Significantly Eased

The U.S. and Iran have reached a draft agreement, and commercial navigation in the Strait of Hormuz will resume, with the U.S. planning to unfreeze about $25 billion of Iranian assets. Trump stated that the two sides have "basically agreed," and the ceasefire has been extended by 60 days. The expectation of falling oil prices suppresses inflation and is macro favorable for risk assets.

2. Federal Reserve Policy Remains a Tight Leash

CME data shows a 99.9% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in June and a 90.3% probability in July, with a 9.6% probability of a rate hike. The high interest rate environment continues to suppress valuations of risk assets, with high U.S. Treasury yields diverting institutional funds.

3. South Korea Tightens Cross-Border Regulations

South Korea has amended the Foreign Exchange Transactions Act, requiring cryptocurrency platforms to register and report cross-border transaction data to monitor money laundering and capital flight. Regulatory tightening in the Asia-Pacific continues, but the overall impact on the market is limited.

3. Liquidity and On-Chain Data: Weak Buying Pressure

1. ETF Funds Continually Flowing Out

Since May, U.S. spot ETFs have seen a cumulative net outflow of over $1.5 billion, with a net outflow for six consecutive days. BlackRock sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin in a single week last week. However, it should be noted that this is a rotation of funds rather than a full retreat – XRP, SOL, and the newly listed HYPE ETF recorded slight inflows during the same period.

2. On-Chain Demand Hits Yearly Low

The apparent demand over the last 30 days is about 147k BTC, the lowest since 2026, comparable to levels when prices ranged between $60k and $66k at the end of 2025. Although the spot CVD (cumulative volume difference) has rebounded somewhat, overall buying momentum remains weak.

3. Derivatives Leverage is Manageable

Perpetual contract funding rates remain at a low of 0.001-0.01%, showing no signs of crowded long positions. Open interest has decreased by 3.5%, and speculative sentiment has cooled.

4. Institutional and Government Movements

Government of Bhutan: Since June 2025, it has sold a total of 9,180 BTC at an average price of $98,100, realizing a profit of approximately $900 million, and currently still holds about 3,021 BTC.

SpaceX: Disclosed holdings of about 18,000 BTC.

Vitalik: Stated that the Ethereum Foundation will reduce ETH sales and shift to a more streamlined operation.

Chu Yuechen: May 26 Bitcoin and ETH Market Analysis and Trading Reference

Technical Analysis: Bearish Structure Unchanged. Daily risk remains, and the only structure that can reverse the downtrend is if a head and shoulders bottom forms above $76,400 on the 4-hour chart; otherwise, a second bottom near $74,000 is highly probable.

In yesterday’s article, we provided short positions above $77,000 and also indicated increasing short positions near $78,000. As of now, the situation is basically following the script, and last night we also advised those without positions to take a short position at $77,500; the price is now fluctuating around $76,500. Friends who entered short positions have achieved good gains.

Today, we still maintain a bearish outlook. For a trend change, it needs to stabilize above $78,500; otherwise, the main theme trend remains dominated by bears. The reasons were discussed in yesterday’s article, and interested friends can take a look back at that.

Intraday Trading Reference: Short positions between $77,500 and $78,000, stop loss at $78,600, target at $76,000. If it breaks below $76,000, then follow up with short positions, looking down at the $74,000-$73,000 range.

ETH is the same as yesterday’s idea, suggesting to enter short positions in the range of $2,130-$2,150, with a stop loss at $2,200, and still targeting $2,000. ETH is relatively weaker, and its volatility is not as pronounced as Bitcoin's; therefore, in terms of contract operations, it is recommended to prioritize Bitcoin.

Friends who wish to discuss operations can message me in real-time, and I will provide timely reminders for market prices.

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