Original | Odaily Star Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web 3_golem)

As an investor focusing on AI and semiconductors in the U.S. stock market, if you haven't heard of Serenity, then your investment research is probably still on the outside.

Why do I say that? Because he is currently the most famous stock picker in the U.S. markets, with reports being viewed and copied by almost everyone from retail investors to Wall Street, and some have even packaged his publicly available insights into courses for sale in the community.

On May 24, Serenity announced on the X platformhis investment performance this year: a return rate of 3840.39%; just the day before, he had also shared his investment return rate over the past two years, which was as high as 2256.99%.

“Far Ahead” Serenity

Serenity joined X in July 2025, and by May of this year, his number of fans had increased to 358,000, surpassing 32,000 subscriptions, with only a difference of less than 15,000 from Musk's subscription count. Yet to this day, no one knows Serenity's true identity, and people's understanding of his background comes only from his personal self-description:

• A famous trader from the former Reddit WSB (Note from Odaily: Wall Street Bets is the largest retail trading community in the U.S., Serenity was banned after recommending a stock codenamed AXTI in 2022, which has since increased over 700% this year);
• AI and semiconductor supply chain analyst, former RISC-V Foundation member, former AI research scientist;
• Currently mainly trades "bottlenecks that have not received attention".

From the introduction, it can be seen that Serenity has built his persona as an expert in the AI field. He has even claimed that he turned down an offer from Nvidia's AI team in 2018. Serenity mentioned in a post that his investment decisions are based on a thorough understanding and research of the AI and semiconductor industries, with his usual research process being: first conduct initial research on papers, then translate these ideas into practical plans and trades, followed by subsequent due diligence on Alpha, and finally, all that's left is to celebrate when the stock rises.

As shown in the image below, this is the current main stock holdings of Serenity organized by community user@kaikaibtc, primarily concentrated in sectors such as optical modules, silicon photonics, storage, CPO, substrates, etc. None of these 21 stocks has a profit margin lower than 100%, with Serenity's most frequently mentioned stock, AXTI, delivering a profit exceeding 10,000%, and he has publicly stated that AXTI is his most legendary trade.

However, what is even more impressive than this exaggerated profit is that Serenity discovered these targets before they were noticed not only by retail investors but even by institutions.

When Serenity previously posted trades for a particular stock, he was most often questioned, and it was only months or even a year later that investors realized he was right after witnessing the stock's extraordinary performance, with RPI, AXTI, SIVE, etc., being vivid examples. As such cases repeatedly occur, the Serenity account has naturally become a daily must-read for retail investors, Wall Street, and even Silicon Valley investors.

Why does Serenity always manage to stay ahead of the market and discover those undervalued stocks? His secret is a supply chain bottleneck (Chokepoint) investment theory he constructed himself.

Bottleneck (Chokepoint) Investment Method

Chokepoint is the most frequently appearing term in Serenity's posts and represents his core investment logic.

AI is undoubtedly the mainstream narrative in today's world, but the AI industry is experiencing a clear supply-demand imbalance. On one hand, internet giants are frantically pouring money into AI infrastructure for an "arms race," while on the other hand, the supply side is clearly insufficient, with Nvidia’s orders even entering a "rationing system." Therefore, capital has also responded, realizing that the current development of AI is entirely dependent on upstream supply chains rather than downstream. Whoever can occupy a significant position in the AI supply chain, who can achieve irreplaceability, is who should be repriced.

Consequently, in recent months, the market's hype in the AI industry has gradually shifted from initial GPU computing power to breaking down the industry chain layer by layer, with the second layer comprising storage, data centers, optical modules, and further down to power, materials, network equipment, etc. This layered disassembly of the AI supply chain and finding key "chokepoint" enterprises at each stage is essentially Serenity's Chokepoint investment method, except he has acted ahead of most retail investors and institutions.

On March 31, when Serenity was promoting AXTI, he made an analogy that vividly illustrated what a chokepoint is. He compared it to the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20% of the global oil supply must pass; it is a critical chokepoint in global energy trade, and AXTI is to AI optical module companies what the Strait of Hormuz is to global energy trade.

The essence of Serenity obtaining excess returns still stems from the asymmetric information in the market, using sharp thinking and forward-looking vision to seek those inadequately priced "hidden champions" in the AI industry chain. These companies may not be as glamorous as large enterprises like Nvidia, Micron, or SK Hynix, but they are small monopolistic firms that would cause seismic impacts on the trillion-dollar AI industry if they run out of stock or halt production.

For example, when Serenity promoted IQE in February-March of this year, he repeatedly stated that both IQE and Landmark are major photon chip epitaxial wafer foundries, but IQE has a significantly greater comprehensive production capacity than Landmark; at that time, Landmark's market value was about 3.8 billion USD, while IQE's market value was only 135 million USD.

It is worth noting that Serenity is not superhuman; he does not have complete knowledge of every link in the AI industry chain. He frequently mentions that he conducts AI supply chain research with the assistance of AI, including dismantling the industry chain, uncovering suppliers, and debating viewpoints with AI.

True Legend or “Photo Master”?

In the investment field, overly deifying anyone is extremely dangerous; Serenity's success rate is not 100%. The stocks he recommended earlier this year, such as CPSH and INFQ, also experienced significant pullbacks in February and March. Rather than blindly copying his holdings list, retail investors and traders should learn his research framework and mindset to develop their own system, ultimately finding their own Alpha.

Serenity is also a person with a strong idealistic and mysterious aura. None of his personal public information has been verified by third parties, and no one even knows if he is male or female. The only personal detail he has disclosed is that he lives an international digital nomad lifestyle and is currently learning Japanese in Japan; he has also lived briefly in mainland China, so he knows some Chinese and often travels to countries like South Korea, the UK, Singapore, and Canada, claiming to have visited at least 28 countries.

Because Serenity only shares returns and has not revealed real trading accounts, some have questioned whether his returns could be fabricated. In response, Serenity stated, “The reason I don't disclose specific amounts is that the amount isn't important,” explaining that he simply wants to prove that users can find genuinely valuable information from free posts, and that returns expressed in percentages are the most suitable for validating an argument. He also mentioned that he dislikes traditional KOLs who boast about money, luxury watches, sports cars, and private jets.

Opposing paywalls or paid communities is also a distinct feature of Serenity. Most of Serenity's core research is published on X for free, accessible to anyone without barriers or a paywall, and his account subscription is only 1 USD/month, consisting solely of an Excel spreadsheet; even without subscribing, it does not affect one's understanding of his core views.

In this world where “everyone is for profit,” Serenity's seemingly selfless sharing of his views with the market, without a pursuit of fame or wealth, is somewhat abnormal. Therefore, some speculate that Serenity is simply using his influence to manipulate the prices of these low-market-cap stocks, building positions at low prices and selling high, ultimately leaving an "ant position" in his account to confuse fans, as he has always only reported returns without disclosing actual profits.

This reeks of “assuming a villainous intent for a noble character,” of course, Serenity has his own explanation of noble intent.

He believes the stock market is a zero-sum game process, and he aims to share critical information before institutions "Buy-in," enabling retail investors to also find the right path and reap profits. Particularly when he sees that they can glean wealth secrets without spending over 2000 USD to join any paid community, he feels proud, claiming he is changing the old model. For example, he stated that if he hadn't shared the story of IQE, institutions like AVGO would have silently taken IQE, and retail investors would receive no returns at all.

What the truth is remains unknown. Whether Serenity is truly a person who sees through the AI supply chain or a top player reaping traders using "bottleneck narratives" is something we can only leave to time to answer. Serenity will ultimately become a legend or a bubble; we can only wait and see.

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