Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.58 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60%, which is $1.54 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $322.9 billion, increasing by 0.15% over the past 7 days, with USDT making up 58.71%.
CoinMarketCap reports that among the top 200 projects, a small number have risen while most have fallen, including: BTC with a 7-day decline of 4.32%, ETH with a 7-day decline of 6.1%, SOL with a 7-day decline of 5.1%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 23.75%, and NEAR with a 7-day increase of 42.13%.
This week, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $1.256 billion; the US Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net outflow of $216 million.
Market Forecast (May 25 - May 31):
The RSI index is at 54.2 (neutral, higher than last week), the Fear and Greed Index is at 27 (fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 40 (neutral).
BTC: $73,000-80,000 (broad fluctuations, testing key support)
ETH: $1,900−2,326 (defensive posture, struggling below moving averages)
SOL: $80-92 (lack of liquidity, weak consolidation)
Risk Warning:
Macro "black swan": If geopolitical conflicts (such as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz) escalate, or if oil prices continue to rise, it could trigger a new round of risk-averse selling.
Breaking support levels: If BTC effectively falls below 73,000, it will mean that the short-term bullish structure has failed, potentially triggering technical sell-offs.
Understanding the Present
CLARITY Act Committee Approved: A Major Milestone in Cryptocurrency Regulation in Nearly a Decade
On May 14, the US Senate Banking Committee officially passed the CLARITY Act with a bipartisan vote of 15 in favor and 9 against. This is the first time in US Congressional history that a committee-level vote has been held on comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure legislation, marking the end of nearly a decade in regulatory “gray area” for the crypto industry. The bill aims to clarify the division of regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC and was previously passed by the House in July 2025. The Trump administration has set July 4 as the target date for legislative completion.
CPI and PPI Both Skyrocket: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Completely Reversed, Probability of Rate Hike in December Rises to 28%
A significant turning point has appeared in the macro environment. The year-on-year CPI in April jumped to 3.8% (the highest since fall 2023), and the year-on-year PPI surged to 6.0%, far exceeding all economists' expectations, with core PPI seeing the largest increase in over three years. Inflation exceeding expectations, combined with rising energy costs due to geopolitical conflicts, has fundamentally changed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path — the implied probability of a rate hike in December 2026 from CME has surged from about 2% a month ago to about 28%, with the 30-year Treasury yield returning to the 5% mark.
Historical Selling Pressure on Bitcoin ETF: Nearly $1 Billion Net Outflow in One Week
The strong net inflow trend of Bitcoin spot ETFs over the past six weeks was officially reversed this week. As of May 15, the total net outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs over five trading days was approximately $996 million to $1 billion. Among them, a single-day net outflow on May 13 reached as high as $635 million, marking the largest single-day net outflow since 2026. Ethereum spot ETFs also recorded net outflows for the eighth consecutive day.
Bitcoin Weekly Drop of 5.5% Falls Below $77,000, Ethereum Hits Two-Month Low
Bitcoin has slid from above $82,000 at the beginning of May, breaking below the $77,000 mark on May 19, with a weekly decline of approximately 5.5%, once approaching $76,500. Ethereum also weakened to about $2,100, with a weekly drop of 8.2%, marking the lowest since April 7. The cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 28 on May 22, indicating that the market is in a "state of panic."
Total Market Value of Stablecoins Surpasses $320 Billion, USDC Continues Issuing
The stablecoin market continues to show a modest expansion trend, with the total global market value of stablecoins officially surpassing $320 billion. Among them, USDT has a market value of approximately $189.6 billion (about 60%), while USDC has a market value of approximately $77-78 billion (about 24-25%). On May 19, the USDC Treasury issued an additional 250 million new USDC tokens on the Ethereum network. Yield-bearing stablecoins are becoming the fastest-growing sub-sector.
HYPE Becomes a Favorite of Institutions: Grayscale, a16z, Galaxy Intensively Accumulate
Against the backdrop of continuous outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum, Hyperliquid (HYPE) has become the standout narrative this week. Grayscale-affiliated wallets accumulated and staked 510,387 HYPE (approximately $24.95 million) over the past week; a16z withdrew 259,700 HYPE (approximately $13.29 million) from exchanges within 24 hours; and Galaxy Digital-affiliated wallets purchased 158,100 HYPE (approximately $8.8 million) in two hours. HYPE spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $25.46 million in one day.
Binance Experiences $2.2 Billion Coordinated Selling Pressure, Clear Institutional-Level De-risking Characteristics
On May 15, the taker sell volume on Binance surged to $1.5 billion, with an additional $1.1 billion in sell volume after Bitcoin broke below $77,000; Ethereum also experienced a peak of $1.1 billion in sell volume during this period. Analysts pointed out that this synchronized selling pressure from Bitcoin and Ethereum indicates coordinated de-risking behavior at the institutional level, rather than natural selling by retail investors.
Geopolitical Risks Push Oil Prices to $112, Reinforcing Inflation Persistence
The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have not made substantial progress, with Brent crude oil surpassing $110 per barrel on May 18, and WTI crude oil crossing $107 per barrel, marking the highest levels since May. The rising oil prices continue to transmit via transportation costs to core inflation, further reinforcing the Federal Reserve's expectations for policy tightening. Analysts noted that if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Middle East, it may become the "best trigger condition" for a recovery in the cryptocurrency market.
SpaceX Discloses Holding 18,712 Bitcoin and Submits IPO Application
In a significant corporate adoption revelation, SpaceX disclosed that it holds 18,712 Bitcoin and has formally submitted an IPO application to the SEC. This news is seen as another important signal of deep integration between traditional enterprises and cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 1789 Capital, led by Trump’s son, has seen its assets under management grow 17 times to $3.5 billion in a year, focusing on AI, defense, and America-first investments.
Hong Kong Issues 13th VASP License, Continuing Regulatory Dynamics in Asia
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has issued the 13th Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license to NewBX (Bixin). At the same time, Cambodian police raided the Prince Plaza in Phnom Penh, detaining over 100 individuals suspected of telecom fraud (including 82 Chinese nationals), related to frozen assets under Chen Zhi. In China, Ningbo Customs has uncovered a smuggling case involving over 400 mining machines.
Macroeconomics
On May 21, the initial claims for unemployment insurance in the US for the week ending May 16 was 209,000, slightly below the expected 210,000, with the previous value being 211,000.
On May 22, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for May in the US was 44.8, compared to the expected 48.2 and the previous value of 48.2.
On May 22, according to the Federal Reserve Rate Watch, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in June is 97.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.1%.
ETF
According to statistics, from May 18 to May 22, the net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.256 billion; as of May 22, the total outflow from GBTC (Grayscale) was $26.356 billion, with a current holding of $11.264 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $61.943 billion. The total market value of US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $102.246 billion.
Net outflow of US Ethereum spot ETFs was $216 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Industry Conferences
The Istanbul Blockchain Week 2026 will be held in Turkey from June 2 to 3.
IVS2026 KYOTO will be held in Kyoto, Japan from July 1 to 3, 2026.
WebX 2026 will take place in Tokyo, Japan from July 13 to 14, 2026.
Project Progress
The on-chain identity project Phi will cease operations on May 25.
Members of the Korea Digital Asset Joint Association (DAXA) will delist the RESOLV spot trading pairs on May 26.
Leap Wallet will stop operations on May 28, and users need to complete migration as soon as possible before then.
The DEX Tapp Exchange on Aptos will cease operations at the end of the month, and users need to withdraw assets by May 31.
Optimism will stop supporting op-geth and op-program on May 31. Chain operators must complete migration during the Karst hard fork, otherwise the chain still running op-geth will not be able to follow the main chain. cannon-kona can run in the current op-node environment without using kona-node, which is an optional component. Node operators should migrate to op-reth as soon as possible to maintain network compatibility and obtain support for new features.
The crypto media DL News will suspend operations at the end of this month.
Important Events
On May 28 at 8:30 PM, the US will announce the initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending May 23 (thousands).
On May 28 at 8:30 PM, the US will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for April.
Token Unlocking
Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on May 25, valued at approximately $23.27 million, accounting for 3.86% of the circulating amount.
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock 240 million tokens on May 25, valued at approximately $1.83 million, accounting for 3.9% of the circulating amount.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 8.889 million tokens on May 25, valued at approximately $7.89 million, accounting for 3.69% of the circulating amount.
Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock 133 million tokens on May 26, valued at approximately $4.79 million, accounting for 4.06% of the circulating amount.
Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock 450 million tokens on May 26, valued at approximately $10.78 million, accounting for 20.04% of the circulating amount.
Zora (ZORA) will unlock 172 million tokens on May 30, valued at approximately $1.90 million, accounting for 3.45% of the circulating amount.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends for you through “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Research Reports”; leveraging our exclusive column “Hotcoin Selection” (AI + expert dual screening), to lock in potential assets and reduce trial and error costs. Weekly, our researchers will also meet you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors traverse cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly recommend that investors proceed with investments based on a complete understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
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