📉 Waller announced his appointment yesterday, and the probability of a rate hike in June soared directly from 70% to over 90% —

in stark contrast to the multiple rate cut expectations at the beginning of the year, the market is clearly pessimistic, and another wave of decline is coming!

It is now pointless to judge whether Waller is a hawk or a dove; let's take a look back at Powell:

In 2020, Powell had zero interest rates and unlimited QE, referred to by the market as "the most dovish in history";

In 2022, Powell aggressively raised interest rates, stating “households and businesses must bear the pain,” and was called “Volcker 2.0” by the market.

The same person, in three years, transformed from the king of doves to the king of hawks, a dynamic evolution.

From Trump's selection logic, he certainly would not choose a die-hard hawk,

so I have no thoughts on the current market situation, and I'm ready to just lay low this month!

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