Original title: The Trump paradox: What's good for him is weighing down his party
Original author: the Washington Post
Original translator: Peggy
Editor's note: Trump's political paradox is becoming increasingly clear: His support among national voters continues to decline, yet he possesses growing dominance within the Republican Party.
The core of this article is not whether Trump can still influence the Republican Party, but rather how this influence is reshaping the party's electoral prospects. On one hand, he is forcing candidates within the party to pledge allegiance through endorsements, primary challenges, and political purges; on the other hand, this politics centered around personal loyalty may weaken the party's competitiveness in general elections.
From Thomas Massie and Bill Cassidy to the Indiana state senator and Texas senator primaries, Trump's "politics of revenge" continues to prove his mobilization capability among the Republican base. However, the issue is that winning the party's primary does not equate to winning the national election. For the Republican Party, the real risk is not that Trump cannot control the party, but that the deeper he controls it, the narrower the space the party may have among independent voters and moderates.
More concerning is that Trump's strength has not translated into effective legislative ability. On issues such as gas taxes, voting legislation, immigration funding, and military actions in Iran, there remains obvious tension between him and congressional Republicans. This means that while Trump can compel party members to show loyalty, he may not be able to push them to bear the full cost of his political agenda.
Trump has created a party highly loyal to him, and even when his executive actions anger the broader public, the Republican Party still chooses to follow. This political structure, in turn, weakens his influence among voters outside his base.
For the midterm elections, the biggest variable facing the Republican Party may not be the Democrats, but Trump himself. For Trump, victories in the primaries are solidifying his authority within the party; but for the Republican Party, these victories may be pushing it toward a more challenging general election.
Here is the original text:
U.S. President Donald Trump arrives at the White House on Friday aboard "Marine One," walking on the South Lawn of the White House. (Eric Lee/Pool/The Washington Post)
President Donald Trump does not believe in the so-called "law of political gravity."
As his approval rating continues to decline nationwide—multiple polls indicate that his support is close to historic lows—he has increasingly tightened his grip on the Republican Party and jeopardized the party's prospects in the fall elections through a series of unpopular and even blatant actions that require the party to submit to his will.
The result is that this president demands political loyalty within the party at a level that is nearly historically rare, yet his frequent executive actions continuously alienate the broader public. This paradox has led him to become increasingly unwilling and increasingly unable to work through Congress on the issues that matter most to voters. And Trump seems neither willing nor able to break this cycle.
On Tuesday, Trump claimed the "prize" he has long desired: libertarian Republican Congressman Thomas Massie (Kentucky Republican) was ousted. This eight-term congressman is one of Trump's most well-known critics within the House and had pushed for the release of government documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump initially opposed this move until he realized he could not stop it, at which point he changed his mind.
Massie was soundly defeated in the primary by a political newcomer, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallein, who had been personally selected by Trump and received millions of dollars in funding support from Trump’s ally organizations.
Three days before Massie's defeat, Louisiana Republican Senator Bill Cassidy also faced defeat. Trump had labeled Cassidy as "very disloyal." Five years ago, during the second impeachment trial regarding the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Cassidy voted to convict Trump. Despite his efforts to mend relations with Trump, which often seemed clumsy, he ultimately failed to even make it into the runoff.
Earlier this month, Trump's "revenge tour" swept through Indiana. Republican voters responded to his call by ousting five out of seven state senators who had refused to redraw the state's congressional districts as Trump requested. One election remains undecided, with the latest count showing that two candidates are separated by just two votes.
On Tuesday, Trump again flexed his political muscle: in the Texas Republican senator primary runoff, he announced his support for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to challenge incumbent Senator John Cornyn. This move frustrated many Republicans on Capitol Hill, as Cornyn had been viewed as a more viable candidate for the general election; should Paxton win, the Republican Party is likely to have to pour hundreds of millions into this deep red state to ensure their candidate eventually wins, funds that could have been used to support candidates elsewhere.
But as is often the case, Trump made it clear that this decision was personal, rather than tactical or policy-driven. Cornyn had occasionally criticized Trump in the past, although he has been trying to appease Trump recently and even proposed legislation to name one of America's longest highways after Trump not long ago.
But it did not help. When Trump issued a statement on social media supporting Paxton, he wrote: "John Cornyn is a good man, and I have worked well with him, but he did not support me during my tough times."
"I actually believe MAGA has never been more united than now," Trump told reporters on Tuesday. But if the Republican Party wants to keep control of Congress in the fall elections, it must gain support from a significant portion of other voters. In Trump's eyes, this election is about his own political survival.
This January, he told a Republican congressional retreat: "You guys have to win the midterm elections, because if we don’t win the midterm elections, it’s going to turn into—I mean, they’ll find reasons to impeach me. I will be impeached."
But right now, the biggest drag on the Republican Party's ability to maintain its slender majorities in the House and Senate is Trump himself. A recent New York Times/Siena poll is just the latest example: the public is strongly dissatisfied with Trump's war in Iran and does not approve of his handling of the cost of living issue. Even on his strongest issue, immigration, Trump's support lags by 15 percentage points.
Among critical independent voters, Trump's support has dropped to 26%. Forty-seven percent of respondents said his policies had hurt them, up from 41% last fall. Perhaps the polling data that most alarms Republicans is that Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about voting this year; in the hypothetical question of "which party would you vote for if the election were held today," Democrats lead by 11 percentage points.
Meanwhile, even among Republicans, there is unease over some of Trump's recent eye-catching actions. This includes his $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS due to leaks of tax returns earlier this year, followed by a settlement with the IRS.
This agreement will establish an $1.8 billion compensation fund paid for by taxpayers, intended to compensate those who claim they have been persecuted by a "politicized judicial system" like Trump. Beneficiaries are likely to include some who have been charged for violent actions during the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol when Trump supporters attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (South Dakota Republican) said on Tuesday when asked about the fund: "I’m not really supportive of that."
Democrats' views are even more direct.
Washington State Democratic Senator Patty Murray stated at a hearing attended by Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch: "This kind of corruption has never been so blatant and so widespread. But what's happening now is: you write the checks, and Trump and his cronies cash them. And American taxpayers, already bearing the pressure of high prices, will foot the bill for this."
Under the settlement agreement, Trump and his sons are prohibited from personally collecting money from the so-called "deweaponization" fund. However, the IRS will also be "permanently banned and excluded" from collecting any unpaid taxes against Trump, his family members, or his businesses that arose before the settlement was reached.
Despite Trump's hardline stance on unilateral executive actions, his political weakness has also undermined his influence in advancing matters through the legislative branch. Many of his agendas are currently stalled in Congress.
Neither Thune nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (Louisiana Republican) accepted Trump's calls to suspend gas taxes. The Senate also resisted his demands to end the lengthy debate mechanism. Trump hopes to use this to push his highly prioritized "Save America Act," which includes a requirement that individuals prove their citizenship when registering to vote. Trump claims this legislation is necessary for election security, but opponents argue it will lead to voter suppression.
Another issue recently upsetting Trump is that Senate rules advisers rejected allowing hundreds of millions to be allocated for his highly unpopular White House ballroom security costs in an immigrant enforcement funding bill currently under review.
For Trump, beyond the "golden halo" brought by defeating incumbent Republicans, perhaps there also looms a shadow. These individuals will remain in office until January next year, and they are unlikely to fear him as much anymore.
On Tuesday, just after losing the primary, Cassidy made a public show of resistance: he voted for the first time to advance a resolution to stop Trump from continuing to order attacks on Iran.
Cassidy stated: "In Louisiana, I have heard the concerns of many people, including supporters of President Trump, who are worried about this war."
In February this year, Massie told The Washington Post: "I have some colleagues who are just waiting for their primaries to be over before they start developing more independent voices."
At this rate, for their own political survival, they may have to do just that.
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