The recent cryptocurrency market has almost been in a state of "being rubbed to the ground." Many people attribute the reasons to technical factors, funding issues, or even sentiment, but the core issue pressing down on global risk assets is ultimately one: U.S. debt.

The scale of U.S. government debt has officially exceeded $39 trillion. This number is no longer simply "enormous," but has entered a stage with significant systemic risk. According to the current rate of expansion, the market expects U.S. government debt may even surpass $40 trillion before the fall of 2026. More frightening is that the debt itself is not just a scale issue but an interest issue. Currently, the U.S. pays an annual interest on its national debt of up to $1.2 trillion, accounting for about 23% of fiscal revenue, which is gradually evolving into the heaviest burden on the fiscal system.

Meanwhile, U.S. debt yields continue to soar. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has risen to 4.6%, and the 30-year yield has surpassed 5.16%, approaching levels not seen since 2007. Essentially, this is global capital "voting with its feet" – the market is selling off long-term U.S. bonds, demanding that the U.S. pay higher interest to borrow money. It is as if the global market is forcing the U.S. to continue raising interest rates.

The problem is that the current U.S. has no room to easily lower interest rates. In April 2026, the CPI year-on-year rose again to 3.8%, inflation is re-emerging. At the same time, the situation in the Middle East is deteriorating again, with Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, leading to persistently high international oil prices, and energy prices beginning to transmit through the global supply chain, forming a typical:

Rising oil prices → Heating inflation → Sustained high interest rates → Increased debt costs → U.S. continues to issue debt

This is gradually forming a dangerous "debt death spiral."

Even more dangerously, the issues in Japan are also worsening. Japan's long-term reliance on low interest rates is being tested, and if Japan is forced to further raise rates, the "yen carry trade," which has lasted for years, may face collapse. At that time, global capital will flow back, and Japanese capital will withdraw from overseas assets, leading to a new round of liquidity shocks in U.S. stocks, U.S. debt, and even global risk markets.

The cryptocurrency market itself is not the source of the problem, but it will certainly be one of the first assets to feel changes in liquidity. The current weakness in the market is essentially not that no one is optimistic about the future, but that global funds are reassessing risk.

If the issues in the Strait of Hormuz continue to ferment, and the energy crisis resonates with the debt crisis, this may not just be an economic problem, but a real global financial storm.

And it might be becoming the biggest "black swan" of 2026.

This article was originally published by 【HuiYing Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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