● Short-term: Continuing the downward trend, today belongs to a weak consolidation down to the mid-term bullish structural key support level of 76000~75000, with feeble rebounds, making "continuation of decline" highly probable. Yesterday, there was a significant net outflow from ETFs, and breaking below 75000 seems almost certain.
Resistance: 77500~78000
Support: 75500~75000
● Mid-term: The bullish structure remains unchanged, but breaking below 75000 will alter the mid-term bullish structure, and the likelihood of the mid-term bullish structure being damaged is increasing.
Resistance: 78800~80000
Support: 75500~75000
1. Key Events:
1. Short and medium-term bearish: The core development team of the second coin has collectively left, and top institutions on Wall Street have significantly reduced their ETH positions. The core Ethereum development team has experienced a historic wave of departures, leading to a significant gap in technical talent; Goldman Sachs' latest 13F filing reveals a substantial reduction in Ethereum-related assets.
2. Long-term bullish: Goldman Sachs is not completely bearish on the crypto industry, as it has significantly increased its positions in high-quality listed companies upstream and downstream of the crypto ecosystem against the trend. This indicates that institutions are avoiding the technological uncertainties of public chain assets, steering clear of assets like the second coin, SOL, XRP, which heavily rely on team operations, technological iterations, and community consensus, and are shifting towards stable business models, stronger compliance, and higher profit certainty in crypto finance service companies.
2. Technical Analysis
● Daily: Pullback consolidation trend.
1. Moving averages: MA7 and 14 have formed a death cross, and MA7 and 30 have created a double death cross, breaking below the short-term lifeline MA30, signaling a short-term bearish outlook.
2. MACD: Both lines are above the zero axis, not yet entering the bearish market; the histogram is expanding below the zero axis, releasing bearish momentum, indicating that the decline has not ended.
● 1 hour: Multiple indicators show bottom divergence, weak consolidation, possible rebounds.
1. Vegas Channel: The channel is downward, and prices are operating below, indicating a downward trend.
2. RSI (14): Entering the oversold area and resonating with the MACD bottom divergence signals a consolidation and possible rebound.
3. BOLL: The middle band is slowing down and closing, indicating consolidation signals.
3. Key Positions
1. 78600: Short-term lifeline (MA30), average cost for short-term holders, the strongest resistance level.
2. 78000: Round number resistance, TMMP, currently the key resistance.
3. 75000: Starting point of wave five, a watershed for whether the mid-term bullish trend can continue.
4. 74000: Midpoint support in this round of rebound wave C.
4. Data Point
1. ETF: On May 18, there was a significant net outflow of 649 million from the main coin's spot ETF, with a net outflow of 86.4 million from the second coin, indicating a clear withdrawal of institutional funds.
5. Operational Suggestions: In the short-term downward trend, small-scale consolidation or rebounds are just a continuation of the decline. Focus on high shorts at resistance levels; only take light long positions when clear rebound signals form within the support range, with strict stop-losses.
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