Today is May 19, 2026, Tuesday, and it's that time of the year again, do you all remember? The market has started to fluctuate again. Let's get straight to the point.

1. What is the current situation?

Bitcoin is currently hovering around 76,700, with a low of 76,000 last night. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of 303 million USD, with long positions being liquidated for 200 million and short positions for less than 100 million. What does this indicate? Those who chased long positions have been taught a lesson by the market.

Ethereum is even weaker, having fallen below 2,100 last night, and currently fluctuating around 2,130, with a chart pattern looking much worse than Bitcoin.

2. Why is it falling? — Three reasons

1. Geopolitical tensions have escalated.

Trump made harsh statements against Iran, warning of possible military actions. Brent crude oil has surged to 113 USD per barrel. Whenever the Middle East stirs up trouble, risk assets tend to drop first as a precaution.

2. Institutions are running away.

Last week, there was a net outflow of 1 billion USD from spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending a streak of six weeks of net inflows. Previously, institutions were buying; now they are starting to sell, and naturally, the price cannot hold up.

3. Technical analysis has hit resistance.

Bitcoin couldn't break through 82,000 last week and was pushed back by the 200-day moving average. When technical analysts saw the failure to break out, they began to sell off.

3. Is there any good news? — There is some

MSTR is still buying. MicroStrategy invested another 2 billion USD last week to acquire nearly 25,000 Bitcoins. This company is quite stubborn, buying more as prices drop.

The CLARITY Act is making progress. It passed the Senate Banking Committee last week, which is a significant positive for US crypto regulation, although actual implementation will take time, the direction is clear.

The Federal Reserve is injecting liquidity. Next week, it is expected to inject 15.1 billion USD into the market, which is more than the total of the last two weeks combined. With more money circulating, a portion will inevitably flow into the crypto space.

4. What to expect moving forward?

Key support level: the range of 75,000-76,000. If this level holds, a rebound is possible; if it fails to hold, the next stop could be 73,000 or even lower.

Key resistance level: the 20-day moving average near 78,600; it must rise above this to stabilize.

5. Trading suggestions

Don't rush to catch the bottom. The market is still determining the victor between bulls and bears, and whether 75,000 can hold is a question mark. It’s often the most painful to catch a falling knife.

If you are in a position, assess the situation: those with low costs can hold on, while those with high costs should wait for a rebound to reduce positions.

Pay attention to the US stock market opening tonight. How US stocks move will have a significant impact on the direction of the crypto market.

Keep a close watch on 75,000. If it truly breaks down, it's time to stop loss; if it holds, those willing to take a position on the left side can try a small position.

Remember, this is a macro market and a news-driven market, technical analysis often gets negated by news. Control your position size, don’t get overconfident.

Chu Yuechen: May 19 Bitcoin and ETH market analysis and trading reference

In terms of contracts: I provided everyone with a short position near 77,500 in yesterday's article, and last night the price reached that level, so those who entered will have made some profit.

From a trend perspective, both daily and 4-hour charts show bears are dominant. Trading contracts means going with the trend.

So today, our strategy remains to look for short opportunities on rebounds. For Bitcoin, consider shorting in the range of 77,000-78,000, with a stop loss at 78,600 and a target of 75,000. If it breaks below, continue to follow with short positions; if it holds, wait for a rebound to enter shorts. Overall, the strategy is primarily about shorting on rebounds.

ETH will follow a similar approach and operation to Bitcoin, with reference points for short positions at 2,130-2,150, a stop loss at 2,200, and a target around 2,050.

For friends who want to discuss trading together, please DM me. I will provide timely entry and exit guidelines for those following my trades; our principle is to use the minimal cost to achieve the maximum profit.

There are many opportunities every day, just seize them and act.

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