A friend asked me last night: Should I cut my losses?
I said: Wait a bit longer. He asked, wait for what. I said: Wait for May 20. He didn’t understand. I didn’t explain much. Some things, you’ll understand only when they happen.
01 First, a background
On May 20, Kevin Walsh will be sworn in as the chairman of the Federal Reserve at the White House.
The last time a Federal Reserve chairman took office at the White House was Alan Greenspan in 1987. It's been thirty-seven years, and no one has dared to do this at the White House. Trump did not care about this formality.
Directly taking Walsh to the White House to be sworn in means one thing: From now on, I call the shots at the Federal Reserve.
Walsh is also clever. Before taking office, he stripped all cryptocurrency investments to avoid suspicion. But what’s truly important is who he is.
He is not the type of old-fashioned bureaucrat who wants to regulate BTC as soon as he sees it. During his term as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011, he stated that the Federal Reserve's inflation target of 2% was a mistake and that monetary policy should be more flexible.
Trump chose him because he wants loosening policy. He wants to pump liquidity. He wants a bull market.
This signal is more important than Bitcoin's rise or fall by ten thousand points.
02 Let's talk about some data
There are now 20,200 wallets holding more than 100 BTC.
A year ago, there were 18,200.
This is an increase of 11.2%.
Each of these wallets is worth at least several million. People who own this much BTC are not the retail investors who panic buy and sell. They have their own research teams, strict risk controls, and informational advantages.
What are they doing?
They are quietly buying when others panic.
When BTC fell below 77,000, the entire network saw liquidations of 160 million USD, and the fear index dropped to 25, a new low for the year. While you were cursing in your social circles, these people were rushing in.
This is not a matter of luck; it is a matter of position management, recognition, and whether you have been in this market long enough.
03 The favorable news not yet fully priced in by the market
The U.S. SEC is preparing to approve tokenized stock trading based on blockchain.
In the future, buying Apple, buying Microsoft, or buying Tesla may not be done through brokers, but directly on-chain by buying tokens.
This means Wall Street funds will enter on a large scale in ways they are familiar with. It is not indirect ownership like ETFs but direct operations on the chain.
The player structure at that time will be completely different. The market capitalization will be larger, liquidity will improve, and pricing power will shift.
If Walsh takes office combined with the SEC’s approval, this one-two punch will be a nuclear-level catalyst.
After May 20, you will see many things that you currently don't understand.
04 Let's talk about specific operations
BTC is now below EMA7 and EMA30, and the daily RSI has reached 31, close to being oversold. At this position, it is either the last drop or fluctuating to form a base.
My judgment is the latter.
Key points to observe:
- Long position defense line: 75,000. If this level breaks, give up completely in the short term.
- Short position rebound: 78,000. If it rebounds to this point, reduce your position first, don’t chase.
- Long and short dividing line: 79,500. Only when this is reclaimed can we say the trend has reversed.
If you have enough bullets, you can test with a small position now, but do not exceed 20%. Wait for stability to add more.
In contract operations, remember this saying: High leverage contracts die from trying to catch bottoms, conservative profits die from chasing shorts. At this position, don’t go in heavily, don’t hold positions, don’t get overly excited.
05 I have seen too many people die before dawn
When it fell to 8,000 in 2018, they cut their losses, and in 2019 it rose back to 14,000. When it fell to 15,000 in 2022, they cut their losses, and in 2024 it rose to 73,000.
Each time is the same. On the day of the crash, the whole world says it’s over, and then it reverses in a V-shape, with retail investors buying back at even higher positions.
Will this time be different?
I don’t know. But I know one thing:
After May 20, some things will change.
Monetary policy will change, the way institutions enter the market will change, and the market's gameplay will change.
Will you still use an old map to find a new continent?
At this time, the most important thing is to choose the right platform and prepare your tools and bullets.
Currently, I am most optimistic about Bybit. It has fast contract execution speed, solid depth, and the TradFi section has launched 45 popular U.S. stock CFDs, and it can also directly trade traditional assets like crude oil. A USDT account can hedge across markets. During this critical window with Walsh taking office and the Clarity Act being promoted, this capability is particularly practical.
Bybit's key activities in May:
- P2P 10 Billion Subsidy: Draw a maximum of 99 USDT vouchers starting from 10 USDT
- Newcomer Welcome Package: Unlock up to 30,100+ USDT trial fund
- TradFi First Order Reward: Complete the first TradFi transaction to receive $5 Credit
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Fill in the invitation code during registration: 34429 New registrations enjoy a $30,100+ welcome gift of $100 trial fund, up to $30,000 recharge trial fund, VIP upgrade treatment awaits you!
06 Back to the initial question
A friend asked if I should cut my losses. I said wait a bit longer.
He asked wait for what. I said wait for May 20.
In fact, I am not sure what will happen on May 20. But I know that some nodes are turning points in history.
Grabbing it once is enough.
Join our community, let's discuss together and become stronger!
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Disclaimer: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.
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