Family, we have once again grasped the short position! During this time, we have been focusing on the bearish direction, and the market trend has been particularly strong. Real-time information and insights are all on OK Planet, remember to follow me～

As early as April 28, I pointed out in advance that a significant turning point in the market would arrive in mid-May, and on May 11, I directly confirmed that the position of 82860 has an 80% probability of being the end of the fourth wave rebound. Looking back at the market trend now, this weak rebound on the weekly level has completely finished, with the highest point just hitting 82860, fully conforming to the initial prediction.

The ability to accurately grasp the trend does not rely on luck to gamble on the market, but rather on the practical system of volume, time, and market structure, which leads to the result step by step.

Currently, the market trend is very clear, the rebound has completely ended, and the bulls only have a little strength left to struggle. After retreating from the high of 82860, each rebound height continues to decrease, the bullish strength is getting weaker, and the bears steadily seize the upper hand. There is a clear divergence in volume and price on the daily chart, and the four-hour MACD has early formed a death cross, with no signs of turning upward at all.

Currently, the daily chart shows a significant increase in volume with a large bearish candlestick; the bearish momentum has completely filled, and the price has broken below the key position of the Fibonacci rising channel, now oscillating and adjusting within the 0.618 range. In the coming week, the struggle between bulls and bears will become more intense; even if the bulls desperately resist, they cannot change the overall trend, which will ultimately be a futile struggle, as the overall market trend will still be controlled by the bears.

Even if there is a rebound in the future market, the high point is basically locked in the range of 79500 to 80000, which is an excellent short point; in simple terms, it is a trap set by the main force for the bulls.

Firstly, the 80,000 level has long been a strong resistance level, and significant selling pressure will appear each time the price approaches it; the moving averages above further form double resistance, creating substantial upward obstacles; secondly, ETF funds in the market continue to flee, and institutional funds are beginning to exit and remain on the sidelines; additionally, U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, and the dollar is strengthening, making the overall environment bearish; combined with the unstable situation in the Middle East, market risk aversion is increasing, further suppressing cryptocurrency prices.

Even if the relevant legislation scheduled for May 20 passes smoothly, triggering a brief surge in the market, it is merely a short-term favorable effect, and without sufficient trading volume to support it, any spike will ultimately be short-lived and cannot lead to a significant market change.

Considering the market trend, the probability of the market rebounding to 79000 is the highest, which belongs to a normal technical correction; reaching 79500 requires favorable news support, and can be considered the ultimate high point; breaking through 80500 is basically impossible.

The prudent approach is still to position mid-term short positions in line with the trend, waiting for the market to rebound back to the 79000-80000 range, and upon the appearance of stagnation and reversal signals, enter in batches, setting the stop-loss above at 81000, capturing bearish profits along the trend, and gradually looking towards downward targets.

Pay close attention to the time node on May 20; the legislative vote is likely to trigger short-term market fluctuations. If there is a chance to rally, remember not to chase highs, but rather, it’s a good opportunity to add to short positions.

Finally, I remind all coin friends that when the market rebounds to around 70,000 to 80,000, it presents an opportunity to short; do not blindly chase high prices and get stuck. The deep bearish market has just begun, and there is still plenty of space for downward movement; just control the rhythm and trade in line with the trend.

Public account: Da Niu Talks Market

Warm reminder: This is merely a personal analysis of the market trend, purely a market opinion exchange, and does not serve as any investment reference. Investment carries risks, and one must enter the market cautiously.

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