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Weekly Editor's Picks (May 9 - May 15)

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Odaily星球日报
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18 hours ago
AI summarizes in 5 seconds.

The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles can easily be drowned in hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column extracts valuable content with judgment from the vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, retain insights, and provide inspiration.

Macro

"TACO" is outdated, Wall Street rises to "NACHO" trading

NACHO, short for "Not A Chance Hormuz Opens," indicates that there is no possibility of the Strait of Hormuz opening.

It is the antonym of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out, Trump always backs down). TACO bets on "people will back down," suggesting Trump will retreat at critical moments. NACHO bets on "things will stagnate," asserting that Hormuz cannot be reopened with just a Truth Social post.

NACHO is not just talk; it is a real-money bet in the insurance, oil price, and interest rate reduction derivatives markets.

Now the market is no longer trading Trump's next Truth Social post but is focusing on the inventory data for the Strait of Hormuz at the beginning of June.

Investment and Entrepreneurship

After a 50x storage increase, Sun Yuchen is always looking to the next decade

"Short-term chip shortage, long-term energy shortage, always a shortage of storage."

At the beginning of 2026, Sun Yuchen predicts: embodied intelligence, drones, spatial computation, space exploration.

Anthropic and OpenAI have cut the logic of pre-market token stocks

Anthropic and OpenAI have successively stated their clear position: "We do not recognize unauthorized stock transfers." The risk of over-financialization with SPV has begun to surface. Feedback at the market level shows that pre-market stock tokens have plummeted, while contracts remain relatively stable.

The public "authentication" of Anthropic and OpenAI is, to some extent, a way to redefine the boundaries of this wildly growing new market. For speculators, this is a risk education; but for the long-term development of the industry, the market may also need such a moment of "de-bubbling."

Bitwise: Why are top capital rushing to bet on new public chains?

Arc, Canton, and Tempo are three public chains tailored for stablecoin and asset tokenization scenarios.

This wave of concentrated fundraising brings an important insight: capital will always follow regulatory legislation; privacy protection may become a phenomenon-level core application.

Niche View: Why is it difficult for HYPE to double again

The 75% of unlocked token supplies indicate continued selling pressure in the future; the current FDV is already close to or exceeds valuations at some traditional exchanges; and at this price point, it remains unclear where new marginal buyers will come from—retail, traditional institutions, or crypto funds.

More importantly, HYPE faces not only valuation issues but also risks related to regulation, hacking, key person dependence, and trader liquidity migration.

For an asset that has already been fully focused on by the market and KOLs, the real issue is no longer "does it have a narrative," but rather "at this price point, who will continue to buy." When a crypto asset moves from alpha to consensus, investors need to reassess not just how excellent the project itself is, but whether the current price has already overdrawn the future.

AI

Semiconductor Century: Investment roadmap under the AI frenzy in 2026

High-value AI chips contribute about half of the industry's revenue, yet they account for less than 0.2% of total shipments. Semiconductors have evolved from consumer electronics components to strategic assets for companies valued at over $10 trillion.

Four key roles in the supply chain are: designers (architects), foundries (manufacturers), equipment suppliers (tool providers), and memory vendors (storage layer).

Notable companies worth studying include: Nvidia, TSMC, ASML, AMD, Broadcom, and SK Hynix.

Semiconductor ETFs include: SMH - Invesco Semiconductor ETF, SOXX - iShares Semiconductor ETF, SOXQ - Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF.

Key catalysts to watch: the trillion-dollar milestone, TSMC's Arizona plant ramp-up, Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform deployment, AMD's market share progress, memory pricing, and HBM4 supply.

Policy and Stablecoins

When stablecoins no longer earn interest: 7 DeFi protocols benefiting from the CLARITY Act

Once the CLARITY Act is officially implemented, it will immediately trigger two significant changes: institutional funds will clear entry barriers.

BlackRock, Apollo, Deutsche Bank, pension funds, and corporate treasury funds have been on the sidelines. Compliance teams have been unable to evaluate whether related assets qualify as securities, preventing large-scale allocations. Now that the CFTC has clarified jurisdiction and DeFi has established a safe harbor, institutions can finally enter the market with significant investments. Profit-seeking funds will withdraw from idle stablecoin investments. The previous model of earning about 5% annual returns by storing USDC on exchanges will no longer exist. Hundreds of billions seeking stable returns must find new investment avenues.

Thus, these two massive capital streams (institutional investors finally entering + retail investors seeking returns) will converge on the same type of targets: compliant, with actual business scenarios, and structured yield products.

Protocols tailored for this new regulatory landscape include: Pendle for underlying yield infrastructure, Morpho as the on-chain prime broker, Sky (USDS / sUSDS), Maple Finance as the on-chain credit trading platform, Centrifuge for native issuance of RWA assets, and related protocols relying on STRC assets (fixed income pathway).

Also recommended: "Earnings reports, legislation, Federal Reserve... Circle faces three major tests this week," "The CLARITY Act emerges: Is Ethereum the biggest winner?," and "Under the CLARITY Act, the new order for XRP and the crypto market."

CeFi & DeFi

Is Hook Summer really here? sato, Lo0p, FLOOD ignite a new narrative for Uniswap v4

Since ASTEROID, tokens backed by the Uniswap v4 Hook protocol, such as sato, sat1, Lo0p, and FLOOD, have gradually become the focus of the market, with market capitalizations ranging from several million to several tens of millions, bringing much-needed concentrated liquidity to the narrative-deprived crypto market.

Hook mechanism tokens drive the development of the Uniswap ecosystem: UNI has a bullish long-term outlook, but short-term gains are limited.

$3 billion DeFi fund migration: LayerZero falls, Chainlink thrives

The rescue efforts for the Kelp DAO attack have recently made substantial progress. However, compared to the restoration of funds, rebuilding market trust is still more challenging.

LayerZero, at the center of the whirlpool, faces several protocols accelerating their exit, and has been forced to change its stance within weeks, from initially shifting blame to now publicly apologizing and initiating corrections. However, Chainlink unexpectedly became a beneficiary of this crisis, as its CCIP protocol absorbed a significant amount of migrating liquidity, resulting in a marked growth in on-chain data.

Airdrop Opportunities and Interaction Guide

Popular interaction collection | The Beacon Season 1 pre-registration; GenLayer latest testnet interaction (May 15)

Circle publishes Arc white paper; what are the early interaction opportunities?

Meme

From the A9 myth to a million in debt, the ups and downs of a Meme player over 5 years

Ethereum and Scaling

Grayscale: Ethereum's staking model needs to change

Ethereum's current staking reward model is facing two structural issues: L2 diversion leading to decreased token burn and increased net issuance; the staking threshold approaching zero could ultimately lock almost all ETH in staking.

The community is discussing the establishment of a cap curve for staking rewards. Grayscale believes this would be beneficial for ETH prices in the long term. The Ethereum community is considering modifying the staking reward model to only incentivize staking up to a certain proportion, with no additional rewards for exceeding that level.

If implemented, the nominal returns for stakers would decrease. However, Grayscale believes this is a good thing for ETH prices in the long term, for two reasons: one is to control ETH inflation, and the other is to strengthen the narrative of ETH as a store of value asset.

Weekly Hot Topics Review

Policy and Macro Market

Trump conducts a state visit to China, attracting attention from accompanying entrepreneurs;

Trump's Q1 "stock trading operations" exposed to heated discussion;

The U.S. Senate votes to approve Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman;

The U.S. Senate Banking Committee passes the CLARITY Act (interpretation);

Some senators submit "anti-DeFi" amendments that may weaken the protective provisions of the CLARITY Act;

Views and Voices

Arthur Hayes: The U.S.-China AI arms race combined with war inflation, BTC returning to $126,000 is inevitable, AI bubbles represent the greatest opportunity;

Wintermute: This round of BTC's rise is clearly driven by leverage, with soaring open contracts and sluggish spot transactions;

CZ in a new interview: still dedicating 80% of focus to blockchain, $10 million can lead to financial freedom;

Institutions, Major Corporations, and Leading Projects

Cerebras goes public on Nasdaq, triggering a strong upward circuit breaker on the first day;

The Solana Foundation partners with Google to launch Pay.sh (interpretation);

Data

ZEC has increased 15 times this year (interpretation); TON continues to rise (interpretation); L1 coin prices are surging (interpretation);

Circle reports Q1 revenue of $694 million, with USDC on-chain trading volume increasing by 263% year-on-year (detailed earnings report);

Gemini reports a 42% increase in Q1 revenue, with post-market shares surging by 30%;

Long-term Bitcoin holders are accumulating significantly, with institutional buying pushing back above $80,000...

Attached is the "Weekly Editor's Picks" series link. See you next time ~

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