Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

Macroeconomic Market

On Thursday, the S&P 500 Index rose by 0.77%, historically breaking through the 7500 point mark for the first time; the Nasdaq composite index increased by 0.88%, setting a new historical closing high; the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed by 0.75%, regaining the 50000 point threshold.

U.S. retail sales data for April confirms consumer resilience, but rising inflation and increasing long-term Treasury yields are forming a severe squeeze. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.5%, and the 30-year Treasury yield even briefly broke through the 5% mark, both hitting new highs for nearly a year. Edward Jones investment strategy chief Mona Mahajan stated that the reasons for interest rate cuts are increasingly untenable, and incoming Fed Chairman Waller will have to remain patient. LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist warned that the continued rise in long-term rates will create significant resistance to growth stock valuations.

Federal Reserve Governor Milan formally submitted his resignation, planning to leave at or before the new Chairman Waller takes office. In his resignation letter, he reiterated a 'call' warning that current rates may be too high, believing that trends such as slowing population growth and regulatory relaxation will naturally reduce inflation.

The Korean KOSPI index briefly broke through 8000 points in the morning session before quickly falling back, dropping over 6%; KOSPI 200 futures triggered a circuit breaker mechanism due to a drop of 5%. Japan's 5-year Treasury yield hit a record high of 1.97%, and the 10-year rose to 2.7%. Finance Minister Kato made a statement to soothe concerns, stating that the rise in yields is a global trend.

In precious metals, due to the strong U.S. dollar, profit-taking, and India's sudden increase in import tariffs on gold and silver, silver futures plummeted over 6%. UBS strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider lowered their silver forecasts, citing weakened demand from both investment and industry, and expect silver prices to fall back to $85 by the end of Q2 2026.

AI and Stock Market

Driven by expectations of deepened cooperation between tech giants and China, market sentiment improved, and tech stocks performed strongly, with Nvidia's stock price soaring 4.39%, its market value surpassing $5.71 trillion, setting a new historical high. The U.S. Department of Commerce has approved its sale of H200 chips to ten Chinese companies including Alibaba, Tencent, Byte, and JD (limited to 75,000 units each), although actual deliveries remain stalled.

Meanwhile, established tech giant Cisco experienced a single-day stock price surge of 13.4%, reaching an all-time high, due to its complete shift to AI business and the laying off of 4,000 employees; new AI chip manufacturer Cerebras Systems was fervently pursued on its first day of listing, with its stock price skyrocketing by 68.2%, Broadcom rising 5.52%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company up 4.48%.

Bitcoin Market

With the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advancing the CLARITY Act with a vote of 15-9, combined with strong performances from U.S. tech stocks, Bitcoin quickly shook off the influence of inflation data, briefly reaching a high of $82,000, before pulling back to hover around $80,500.

In the options market, up to $2.01 billion in BTC options will be settled today, with the biggest pain point at $80,000, and call options still dominating. Meanwhile, the perpetual preferred stock STRC from Strategy has been seen as a significant driver of Bitcoin's mid-month increase. K33 research head Vetle Lunde pointed out that the ex-dividend date for STRC is fixed on the 15th of each month, attracting many investors to buy before the ex-dividend date. Data shows that on May 14, STRC's trading volume surged to 15.61 million shares (totaling $1.561 billion), which may be another crucial reason for Bitcoin's increase yesterday.

However, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has seen a net capital inflow of about $2.8 billion over the past 30 days, and while money continues to flow in, the pace is still not as fast as past bull markets. Additionally, nearly $2 billion in short-term Gamma options short positions are accumulating around the $82,000 mark, forming a "Gamma trap," posing potential volatility risks for the market. Investors need to be cautious of the possibility of short-term adjustments in the market.

Bearish Perspective

The core logic of the bears lies in: the high-pressure macro rate environment, continuous outflow of institutional funds, and high realized losses on-chain, all hinting that the current rise is merely a 'trap to lure the bulls' under liquidity squeeze, with a high likelihood that the market has reached a local top.

• BitBull: Institutions are selling at highs; Bitcoin remains around $80,000, but "smart money" is exiting.

• Killa: The order book depth is significantly bullish in the current price zone, and market structure displays liquidity-driven "hunting" characteristics; once the parabolic movement of the S&P 500 halts, the momentum of Bitcoin will also deplete, and blindly going long holds high risk. If it drops below $80,000, it may further pull back to the $74,000-$76,000 zone.

• Ardi: The structure of the bear market rebound is becoming slower and flatter. As long as the price does not break the previous lower high points, the bear market is not over; time will be the biggest trap, and the area around $74,000-$76,000 is expected to be tested.

• Kans: Bitcoin is at a decision point. If it gets stuck in the resistance zone at $83,000, it will trigger deep pullbacks to either $74,000-$77,000 or $60,000.

• Mizer: The technical rebound from $78,000 has ended, and massive buying failed to break through key resistance; the current area is indeed the top.

• Glassnode: Around $86,900, a large number of chips are gathering to break even, forming significant resistance above.

• Bitfinex/CoinDesk analysts: Daily realized losses remain as high as $479 million, and corporate buyers' purchasing volumes have decreased by 80%. On-chain recovery cannot be confirmed until losses drop to the $200 million range.

Bullish Perspective

The core logic of the bulls lies in: successful defense of key support levels, excessive congestion of short positions, and bullish divergences in technical patterns, which could trigger a violent short squeeze at any moment, pushing prices to new highs.

• Astronomer: Bitcoin has received an excellent rebound in its key weekly interest area, and shorts are massively gathering around the $81,000 level, providing a great building opportunity for the bulls, and this wave of market may go higher.

• Ali Charts: Bitcoin is testing the support line of the ascending channel since Apr

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