Bitcoin

Trend Judgment

Moving Average System: EMA(5) < EMA(10) < EMA(20) < EMA(40), showing a typical bearish arrangement. The price is suppressed by EMA(5), with weak rebounds, clearly belonging to a descending channel.

• Price Pattern: The price has fallen from a high of 82100, although there have been rebounds along the way, the highs keep decreasing. The latest K-line closed bearish again with a lower shadow, indicating resistance around 79000, but the bearish force still dominates.

• MACD Indicator: Both DIF and DEA are below the zero axis and diverging downwards. Although the MACD histogram has shrunk (negative values have become smaller), it remains in a weak area, with no obvious golden cross or bottom divergence signals yet.

• RSI Indicator: The RSI1 value is 30.65, close to the oversold area (below 30), indicating that the short-term decline is too large, creating a demand for a technical rebound, but it has not entered the extremely oversold zone.

Key Levels

• Resistance Levels: 80000-80200 (short-term moving average resistance area), 80950 (position of EMA20).

• Support Levels: 78721 (previous low), 78000 (integer psychological barrier).

Trading Suggestions

• Main Strategy (Short Selling in Trend):

  • The current trend is bearish, and blindly bottom-fishing is not advisable.

  • Entry Point: If the price rebounds to around 80000-80200 and meets resistance, consider attempting a short with a small position.

  • Stop Loss: Set above 80500.

  • Target: First target at previous low 78721, and if breached, look at 78000.

• Alternate Strategy (Short-term Long):

  • Because the RSI is close to oversold, aggressive traders may attempt a very short-term long position around 79000, but strict stop-loss is necessary. Exit immediately if it breaks below 78700 as support in a downtrend is often very weak.

Ethereum

Trend Judgment

• Moving Average System: Also showing a bearish arrangement, EMA(5) < EMA(10) < EMA(20) < EMA(40). The price has recently accelerated downwards after breaking the 2300 platform.

• Price Pattern: It has fallen from a high of 2345, with a rapid decline near 2233 recently, followed by a slight rebound but weak. The K-line pattern shows significant selling pressure.

• MACD Indicator: DIF and DEA are below the zero axis, though the DIF value is positive (1.43), the MACD histogram indicates insufficient momentum and signs of weakening, belonging to a weak oscillation biased downwards.

• RSI Indicator: The RSI1 value is 32.51, also close to the oversold area, suggesting a potential exhaustion of short-term downward momentum and a demand for correction.

Key Levels

• Resistance Levels: 2280-2290 (short-term dense area), 2300 (integer barrier and EMA40).

• Support Levels: 2233 (previous low), 2200 (integer barrier).

Trading Suggestions

• Main Strategy (Short Selling at Highs):

  • Ethereum's trend is weaker than Bitcoin's (typically, altcoins perform weaker during a downtrend).

  • Entry Point: If it rebounds to the 2270-2280 range and meets resistance, it is a good shorting opportunity.

  • Stop Loss: Set above 2295.

  • Target: Look for 2233 below, and if it breaks, look at 2200.

• Alternate Strategy (Wait or Short-term Long):

  • Since the RSI is close to 30, if the price stabilizes around 2233 and shows a long lower shadow, consider attempting a short-term rebound to around 2260, but the risk is high, so a very small position is recommended.

Summary and Risk Control

• Overall View: The current market is in a downward trend, with a clear bearish arrangement. Although the RSI indicator suggests nearing oversold, indicating a possible technical rebound, heavy bottom-fishing is not recommended.

• Risk Warning:

  • Strict Stop Loss: In a downward trend, any support level could be instantaneously breached, so be sure to set a stop loss.

  • Pay Attention to Trading Volume: If the volume does not increase during a rebound, it is likely to be a trap for buyers, so continue to short at highs.

  • Correlation: Ethereum usually follows Bitcoin’s trend; if Bitcoin breaks key support, Ethereum will likely accelerate its decline.

In summary: The trend is bearish, and shorting at highs has a higher winning probability; bottom-fishing should be approached with caution.

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