Dear friends, I am Sister Qinglan. The market tonight appears calm on the surface but is actually full of undercurrents. Among the key news, two matters are worth focusing on: first, Strategy continues to increase its holdings by 535 BTC, raising the total holdings to 818,900 coins, which shows long-term confidence as institutions vote with real money; second, the Ethereum Foundation has unstaked 21,000 ETH, worth nearly 50 million USD, which exerts short-term supply pressure on ETH. With one bullish and one bearish factor, the market is battling around the 80,000 mark, and a directional choice is imminent.

Current Price and Time

The current time is May 11, 21:25, and the BTC price is 81,177 USDT. The 24-hour increase is only 0.26%, the market is in a sideways state, with balanced bull and bear forces, but the technical indicators have given clear signals.

Multi-Cycle Status Overview

First, looking at the daily level. MA5 is at 80,852, MA10 is at 80,373, MA30 is at 77,531, and the moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, with the price standing firmly above the short-term moving averages. The MACD column is at 60.64, and the DIF is above the DEA, indicating sustained bullish momentum. The RSI is at 65.63, in a neutral to strong area, and has not entered overbought territory. Overall, the daily level is bullish, but the pace of increase is slowing, requiring new catalysts.

Four-Hour Level. MA5 is at 81,212, MA10 is at 81,124, MA30 is at 80,684, and the price is oscillating near the moving averages. The MACD column is at 13.03, and the DIF is above the DEA, but the column is small, indicating weakened bullish momentum. The RSI is at 60.45, in the neutral zone. The four-hour chart shows a high-level consolidation pattern, waiting for a breakout in direction.

One-Hour Level. MA5 is at 81,066, MA10 is at 80,932, MA30 is at 81,103, and the price is fluctuating around the moving averages. The MACD column is at -12.23, and the DIF is below the DEA, indicating the emergence of bearish momentum. The RSI is at 29.31, close to the oversold area, indicating strong short-term downward momentum. EMA55 is at 80,845, which is the critical dividing line between bullish and bearish.

Fifteen-Minute Level. MA5 is at 81,195, MA10 is at 81,147, MA30 is at 80,964, and the price is showing short-term rebound. The MACD column is at 20.43, and the DIF is above the DEA, indicating a recovery in bullish momentum. The RSI is at 56.33, neutral. The fifteen-minute chart indicates a short-term need for a rebound, but the strength is limited.

TPV Signal Verification

According to the Qinglan TPV system, we use the one-hour EMA55 as the dividing line between bullish and bearish. The current price is 81,177, above EMA55’s 80,845, the system identifies it as a bullish trend area. However, we need to verify if all conditions for going long are met.

First, the price is stable above the 1H EMA55. Among the last 8 one-hour candlesticks, there have been 5 instances where the closing price was greater than EMA55, and 1 crossing instance. The recent two candlestick closing prices are 81,177 and 81,050, both above EMA55, satisfying the condition of two consecutive candlesticks closing above EMA55. However, note that the crossing instances are only 1, indicating that the price is repeatedly around EMA55 and not strongly stabilized.

Second, support stabilizes. The current price has rebounded from the low point near 80,845, forming a long lower shadow, receiving support after touching EMA55. This meets the condition for support to stabilize.

Third, the downward momentum is exhausted. Although the one-hour MACD column is negative, the last two columns are -12.23 and -15.67, and the columns are shortening, indicating weakened bearish momentum. The RSI has rebounded from 29.31, close to the oversold area, and is rising. This meets the condition for exhausted downward momentum.

In summary, the conditions for going long are basically satisfied, but the signal strength is weak, as the price repeatedly fluctuates around EMA55, and the crossing instances are insufficient. The system indicates that it currently does not meet the oscillation threshold, and may be in a unidirectional trend, but the direction of the unidirectional trend needs confirmation.

On-chain/Funds

The Fear and Greed Index is 48, neutral, with market sentiment not extreme. The BTC market share is 58.31%, at a high level, indicating funds are still seeking refuge in BTC, and capital inflow into altcoins is limited. In terms of on-chain data, whales are continuously staking ETH, with BitMine adding 27,000 ETH weekly, reducing circulating supply, which is favorable for ETH. USDC's dominance has increased, with Q1 trading volume accounting for 63%, benefiting stablecoin adoption. However, the Ethereum Foundation’s unstaking of 21,000 ETH increases short-term supply, which is bearish for ETH. Overall, the on-chain data presents a mixed bullish and bearish picture, with the funding situation being neutral but cautious.

Key Defense and Attack Levels

Upper resistance level: 81,500, which is the suppression area of the 4-hour MA5 and MA10; 82,000, which is the previous peak and also a psychological barrier. Lower support level: 80,845, which is the 1-hour EMA55, also the dividing line between bullish and bearish; 80,500, which is near the 4-hour MA30, also the previous low point support. If the price falls below 80,845, the bullish trend will turn bearish.

Trading Thoughts

Based on the TPV system, the current area is bullish, but the signal strength is weak. We adopt a cautious long strategy, setting strict stop-losses.

Direction: Long.

Entry Conditions: Wait for the price to pull back to near the 1-hour EMA55, in the area of 80,845-80,900, and look for signs of support stabilization, such as a long lower shadow or bottom formation. At the same time, the MACD column continues to shorten, and the RSI rebounds from the low. If the price breaks directly above 81,500 and stabilizes, we can chase the long.

Stop-Loss: Set below 80,500, near the 4-hour MA30; if broken, the bullish trend will be invalidated.

Target: First target 81,500, second target 82,000, third target 82,500.

If the price falls below 80,845 and closes two consecutive candlesticks below EMA55, it will turn into a bearish trend, considering going short. Entry conditions: price rebounds to the 80,845-81,000 area meets resistance, showing a top formation or long upper shadow, and the MACD column expands again. Set the stop-loss above 81,200. Target levels are 80,500 and 80,000.

Risk Warning

The current market is in a sideways consolidation with balanced bull and bear forces. Any breakthrough in either direction may be accompanied by significant volatility. Please strictly control your position size to avoid heavy operations.

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📊 Qinglan TPV Trading Strategy Backtesting Reference
🕒 Last Backtest Time May 11, 07:00:01
Total Analysis: 1445 Backtests: 1439 Accuracy Rate: 65.9% (949/1439)

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