Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜jk

Since Bitcoin peaked at a historical high of $126,198 in October 2025, it has experienced a prolonged seven-month decline and sideways digestion. As we enter May 2026, BTC has formed a highly condensed arena of long and short battles around the $80,000 mark. Bullish accumulation signals and bearish liquidation pressure have both emerged with rare intensity at the same price coordinates.

At the time of publication, the current BTC price is approximately $80,832, and the market is at a critical point: breakout or a second pullback?

Bullish Confidence: On-chain Data Almost Universally Indicates Accumulation Bottom

Evidence supporting the bulls mainly focuses on supply-side contraction and institutional demand.

On the supply side, exchange BTC reserves have dropped to 2.21 million, the lowest level since December 2017. Long-term holders now account for 78.3% of the total supply, and whale wallets net accumulated about 270,000 BTC in April. The chips available for immediate selling in the market have compressed to historical lows. If new demand continues to enter the market, the price sensitivity to capital inflows may further increase.

On the demand side and institutional data, April saw a net inflow of $2.44 billion into the U.S. spot BTC ETF, the strongest month since October 2025, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for about 70% ($1.71 billion). Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds 818,334 BTC with an average cost of $75,537 USD, showing a paper profit of over 7%. Saylor posted about "returning to work" on May 10, and the market interpreted this as a signal for continued accumulation. J.P. Morgan estimates that Strategy's total BTC purchases this year may reach $30 billion.

Bitcoin ETF inflow data, source: The Block

Valuation indicators are also unusually low. The MVRV Z score is only 0.91, a historically recognized strategic accumulation window; the RHODL ratio is 4.5, the third highest in Bitcoin's history. This is the third occurrence in history, with the previous two occurring in 2015 and 2020, both marking the bottom of the cycle.

Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin has recently regained the real market mean price around $78,200 and the cost basis of short-term holders around $79,100. These two levels are crucial for market structure. If the price remains above these levels, it indicates that recent buyers are back in profit, and the market is gradually shifting from being dominated by loss-selling pressure to restored holding confidence.

On a macro level, the 30-day correlation coefficient between BTC and the U.S. dollar index (DXY) reached -0.90 in late April, the most extreme negative correlation level since September 2022. If the dollar continues to weaken, it will create almost mechanical price support for BTC.

Bearish Pressure: Seven Rejections, Miner Sell-offs, Derivatives Structure Abnormalities

However, equally strong resistance is coming from the opposite direction.

As for liquidation sell pressure, Glassnode data shows that the 14-day average realized loss is still $479 million per day, which is 140% of the cycle benchmark of $200 million. Historical experience indicates that this figure must be compressed below the benchmark before a bull market can start. Currently, about 43% of all Bitcoin is at a paper loss, and there has been a reduction of 245,000 wallet addresses holding BTC within five days, the fastest rate of loss in nearly two years. The cost basis of newly minted whales (holding for less than 155 days) is about $80,300, which means BTC needs to maintain levels above this to turn those positions into profit; otherwise, they will face liquidation selling pressure at any moment.

The structure in the derivatives market is also signaling in this direction: on April 27, the 30-day average funding rate for perpetual contracts was -5%, whereas the historical normal level is +8%, and this data has just recently gone back to positive. The long-short ratio for BTC on Binance is only 36.7% long/63.3% short, making it the most crowded short structure among currently mainstream assets. 10x Research analyst Markus Thielen clearly stated that this abnormal funding rate indicates institutions are hedging ETF longs through short futures, creating systemic pressure that could further target short-term bulls. Glassnode statistics show that around $2 billion of short Gamma option positions have accumulated near the $82,000 strike price, and the market maker's hedge activities will amplify bidirectional volatility around that price level.

The 30-day average funding rate has just returned to positive, source: Coinglass

Regarding selling pressure, publicly listed mining companies sold over 32,000 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, surpassing the total amount sold in 2025. Bitdeer completely liquidated its reserve of 1,132.9 BTC in February, Cango sold 4,451 BTC (around $305 million) on February 9, and Core Scientific continues to liquidate its reserves. On-chain data reveals that approximately 3,400 BTC have flowed out from miner reserves since April 7 as mining companies are cashing in on this rebound. If miner sell pressure continues and ETF inflows are unable to offset it, the price stability near $80,000 will be tested.

Institutional Perspectives: Voices from Various Analysts

Divergences in bullish and bearish outlooks are also reflected in Wall Street's year-end price targets, displaying an unusual level of dispersion for this cycle.

Tom Lee at the Consensus Miami conference on May 7 provided the most optimistic forecast: “If Bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is clearly over. You have never been in a bear market with three consecutive months of positive returns.” His year-end target range is $150,000–$250,000.

Tom Lee at the recently held Consensus conference. Source: Coindesk

Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani reaffirmed the target of $150,000 on May 5, noting, “We are currently experiencing the weakest bear market logic in Bitcoin's history; the best times for cryptocurrencies are still ahead.” J.P. Morgan holds a positive outlook for the crypto market in 2026, believing it will be driven more by institutional investors rather than retail, and has adjusted the soft support for BTC production costs down from $90,000 to $77,000.

On the other hand, Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick lowered the year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000 in February, warning of a “final clearance period” during which BTC may slip toward $50,000 before establishing a lasting bottom. Citigroup lowered its target from $143,000 to $112,000 in March, stating that BTC is more likely to experience range fluctuations in the short term while waiting for legislative developments such as the CLARITY Act. SkyBridge's Anthony Scaramucci has explicitly stated that Bitcoin's significant recovery may have to wait until the fourth quarter of 2026.

Key Judgments

Among all observational indicators, there are currently two decisive ones:

First, can the 200-day EMA hold? BTC has just regained this moving average; if it falls back and closes below it on a weekly basis, this recovery will be deemed a false breakout. The short-term holder cost line at $79,100 and the real market mean at $78,200 will serve as two supports for the bulls. If $74,300 is breached, the extreme scenario of $50,000–$60,000 warned by Standard Chartered will come back into view.

Second, can it break the Glassnode active realized price at $85,200? This is the next significant on-chain resistance level provided in Glassnode's 18th weekly report, and if the weekly close is above this level, it will validate the trend reversal signal.

This combination of indicators will provide answers within the next two to three weeks.

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