Eighty thousand repeatedly tests the top with fluctuations, many are struggling with when to change the trend, whether they can rashly short.

But most people have not seen the core truth: the short main force has not entered the market at all!

Currently, all the ups and downs are just the bulls pulling and singing, internal competition consuming each other, and the real big selling has yet to come. What exactly are the shorts waiting for? Will the CPI on May 13 set off the market? When is the best window for laying out a medium-term short position?

From the four-hour level short position volume trajectory: since the low of sixty thousand on February 6, the overall short momentum has been gradually weakening. Although the bull volume is also synchronously weakening, the current market is stuck above eighty thousand and repeatedly oscillating within a narrow range, grinding at high positions.

Looking at the order book, it is very clear: after the price rose above eighty thousand, there has never been a situation where large sell orders continuously piled up, basically only small scattered orders hanging above. Although there is a clear selling pressure area in the 82000—84000 range, the short main force has not actively pressed down the market; the sell orders are more about passive pressure rather than active selling to escape. Simply put, the short main force is currently guarding and suppressing at high positions without actively pushing down to attack.

Regarding ETF funds, the net inflow has been greater than the net outflow overall in the past month, which can be clearly seen from the fund flow chart.

So the short main force has not truly entered the market. This means that the current rise and fall in the market are not caused by the shorts actively suppressing. The upward pull is because the shorts are not intentionally blocking; the downward drops are due to the bulls' own inability to attack and push the market. Right now, it cannot be considered a showdown between bulls and bears; it is more like the bulls themselves are struggling back and forth, pulling and singing to themselves.

For example, after the high of 82860 on May 7, it quickly dropped by over two thousand dollars, essentially due to the exhaustion of the momentum from the earlier short covering, not because new shorts actively smashed the market. On that day, a hundred and thirty thousand people suffered from liquidation, and 510 million funds were wiped out in an instant; what truly caused the market to collapse was not the short main force but a wave of chasing bulls trampling each other, collapsing under their own weight.

So the short main force has not entered the market for a long time, what key insights does this provide for the subsequent market?

First, the short army has not really entered the market, which means the true concentrated selling has not even started yet. The current market decline is just a natural correction after the bulls' attack weakness, not due to the shorts’ active harvesting. Thus, there is no need to rush to layout medium-term short positions; it is better to patiently wait for the clear entry signal from the short main force before following the trend. At that time, the potential space and strength of the decline will be much larger, making operations more stable and comfortable.

Second, the short main force is clearly on the sidelines waiting. On one hand, they are waiting for the CPI data on May 13 to be released, and on the other hand, they are consuming the last momentum of the bulls' attack while also waiting for a market rebound to the critical pressure area of 82000—84000 before they will act.

Third, the current market cannot be considered a bull-bear contest; to put it simply, it is just the bulls themselves struggling in internal competition. The bulls' trading momentum has shrunk from previously forty to fifty thousand to only a few thousand now, yet the price can still be stably held around 81000; this is the result of the shorts deliberately holding back. Once the shorts officially make a downward push, the support levels at 79000, 78000, and 76000 will not hold up, and are likely to be easily broken through.

Overall, after a thorough review of the entire market: I still maintain the judgment that the current bull volume has clearly weakened, and a weak pattern on a larger scale is gradually approaching, but right now the bulls have not completely exhausted their strength, still barely holding the market at high positions, struggling desperately, while the short main force remains inactive, quietly waiting for the right moment.

The only thing to do next is to maintain a calm mindset, patiently wait for the CPI data to be released, while also patiently waiting for a clear signal of action from the shorts. After the big shorts enter the market, then lay out medium-term short positions in line with the trend; at that time, the layout will be much more efficient. Remember one thing: do not be impatient and rashly short at this stage; in the market, being impatient will never help you eat hot tofu.

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This content is only a sharing of market views and personal review thoughts, and does not constitute any investment advice.

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