From May 10 to 11, 2026, the U.S. and Iran exchanged the latest peace proposals through Pakistan as a mediation channel. After Iran submitted a written response, Trump stated on camera that it was “completely unacceptable”. The Iranian side also rejected the U.S. proposal, and the fragile framework that had maintained a ceasefire for about ten weeks was suddenly pulled to the brink. Against the backdrop of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu still publicly emphasizing that “military action against Iran has not yet ended”, external perceptions should have indicated a renewed risk of geopolitical instability. However, as of May 11, according to single-source data, the total market size of dollar-denominated crypto assets related to this topic is approximately $32.27 billion, which is an increase of about $2.019 billion compared to the previous week, reflecting a slight increase of 0.63%. The fear and greed index reading is at 48, indicating a neutral and wait-and-see sentiment. On-chain, the whale address 0x577 continues to hold long positions on MU, with floating profits exceeding $5 million and total profits over $5.5 million, seemingly betting real money on risk exposure. So, under this scenario where a breakdown in talks could reignite conflict, why have we not seen the kind of extreme panic response we used to expect on-chain and in sentiment so far?

The Sovereignty Dispute over Hormuz Breaks the Peace

If we take a closer look at this round of negotiations, we will find that Iran did not offer “technical modifications”, but an entire set of life-and-death conditions: the U.S. not only has to pay war reparations but also has to formally recognize Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz on paper, end years of sanctions against Iran, and unfreeze Iranian assets that have been frozen. The Strait of Hormuz itself is a vital choke point for global energy transport, and compromising on sovereignty and maritime security issues is tantamount to giving up future security and bargaining power to Iran. Therefore, Tehran views these terms as a bottom line rather than bargaining chips.

The problem is that the latest proposal given by the U.S. is exactly the opposite in the eyes of Iran — according to Iranian media reports, Tehran believes that it is a document that demands they “submit to Trump’s excessive demands”, and thus chose to reject it. Trump then publicly rebutted, calling Iran’s response “completely unacceptable”. The two sides have formed nearly irreconcilable opposition on key points such as war reparations, sanction relief, asset unfreezing, and Hormuz sovereignty. The peace proposal has just broken down politically, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu further added fuel to the fire by publicly stating that U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran are not over. Overlaying this signal on a ceasefire framework that has only lasted about ten weeks means that the so-called “ceasefire” is more like a thin layer of paper that could be torn at any moment, rather than a safety buffer sufficient to calm risk asset participants.

Ceasefire in Limbo, Market Chooses to Wait

From the battlefield and negotiation table perspective, this ceasefire feels like a memorandum that could be torn apart at any moment, but when we shift the focus to the market, the rhythm has noticeably slowed down. According to AiCoin data, as of May 11, the total market size of crypto-related dollar-denominated assets is approximately $32.27 billion, which is only a slight increase of about $2.019 billion (an increase of about 0.63%) from the previous week. Compared to Trump’s strong wording labeling the “peace proposal as completely unacceptable,” such fluctuations seem more like minor adjustments within an existing range rather than a panic-driven retreat. At the same time, the fear and greed index remains stable at 48, neither dropping into extreme panic nor showing signs of over-excitement. This “neither here nor there” reading is difficult to support a narrative that has already fully priced in the worst-case scenario; it feels more like participants acknowledge the existence of risk but are not willing to bear the cost of the worst outcome.

On-chain, there are currently no publicly available or quantified data that can prove that the breakdown of this round of the peace proposal resulted in large-scale positions being significantly reduced or re-hedged. It seems more like a “wait and see” approach with slow adjustments. The dispute over sovereignty and security in the Strait of Hormuz theoretically could affect global energy transport, security premiums, and macro risk appetite, but at least until May 11, this uncertainty in the traditional energy corridor feels more like background noise in the crypto narrative — everyone knows it exists, but it is not enough to immediately overshadow more direct trading factors such as project fundamentals and liquidity environment. The market has maintained a cautious but not overly cold wait-and-see posture amid high-intensity geopolitical games and limited price fluctuations.

MU Whales Stick to Long Positions, Betting on Manageable Conflict

In this “noisy macro + moderate market” environment, the most intuitive sample of risk appetite comes from specific on-chain positions. According to AiCoin data, whale address 0x577 currently holds a large long position on MU, with floating profits exceeding $5 million and cumulative profits surpassing $5.5 million. This position is not a long-dormant historical leftover but has been continuously held during the time when the U.S. and Iran mutually rejected peace proposals and the ceasefire framework could fail at any moment. This indicates that amidst high uncertainty in geopolitical situations, this player still willingly allows millions of dollars of book profits to be exposed to risk assets.

Behaviorally, the choice of 0x577 points to a relatively clear judgment: at least from its perspective, the U.S.-Iran conflict is more likely to remain in a state of “manageable turbulence” rather than total chaos in the short term. Otherwise, the most rational approach would have been to cash out, instead of carrying high long positions under fragile ceasefire news. However, currently, we can only clearly see this address's profit situation on MU, and there is no systematic “similar address sample” to draw from. It is also possible that there are hedging structures or adjustments of combined positions behind it that we cannot observe at the moment, making it difficult to extrapolate this one point to represent the overall market sentiment. Given the current density of information, 0x577 appears more like an individual player betting on a “controllable situation” on the edge of conflict; its persistence offers an interesting but highly localized perspective, rather than representing a collective vote of the entire crypto market.

Increase in Cyber Attacks, Declining Sense of Security for Crypto Assets

If whale addresses like 0x577 face quantifiable floating profits and pullbacks on-chain, the risks on another front are much more hidden. The Microsoft Security Research Team disclosed that since the end of 2025, attackers have begun to disguise themselves as “macOS Troubleshooting Guides”, spreading false tutorials in technical forums and document scenarios that lead users to execute seemingly harmless commands that actually bury backdoors. Once these commands are executed, they may be used to steal cryptocurrency wallets, iCloud data, and saved account passwords from the browser, directly targeting personal assets and critical identity credentials.

The active period of these attack activities coincides with the current escalation of geopolitical situations, indicating that even if the price side has not temporarily experienced dramatic movements, digital assets are already exposed to a higher risk network environment. For coin holders, there is potential market volatility under the repeated tug-of-war of the peace proposal on one side, and on the other, unseen adversaries reaching into wallets and account backends through cyber attacks. Under this dual pressure, a balanced curve may not indicate that participants really feel “secure”, but instead reflects a fragile equilibrium that could be interrupted by security incidents at any moment.

If the Ceasefire Collapses Again, Where Might Crypto Sentiment Go?

Putting together the geopolitical game, on-chain behavior, and the market’s moderate reaction, we are now more in a transitional period of “repression without explosion”: the ceasefire is merely a fragile framework, the U.S. and Iran have just mutually rejected peace proposals, and Israel has emphasized that military actions have not ended yet. However, as of May 11, according to AiCoin data, the total size of related dollar-denominated assets is still about $32.27 billion, with slight week-on-week growth, the fear and greed index hovering around 48, and whale address 0x577’s long floating profits exceeding $5 million have not noticeably cooled. These all indicate that the market has not temporarily switched to an extreme defensive posture. But this short-term calm in price and sentiment feels more like an effort to “reserve options” for uncertainty, not indicating that structural risks are dissipating: should events around the Strait of Hormuz escalate, and sanctions or military actions intensify, the risk asset preferences may be repriced. At that time, whether large addresses begin to concentrate their positions or increase their hedges, along with the frequency of cyber attack events rising, will be more worthy of attention than today’s price curve. What truly needs continuous monitoring are the specific signals from every breeze and movement in Hormuz, critical political statements, and the directional changes in large on-chain positions.

Join our community to discuss and grow stronger together!
Official Telegram community: https://t.me/aicoincn
AiCoin Chinese Twitter: https://x.com/AiCoinzh
AiCoin on-chain: https://aicoin.com/hyperliquid
AiCoin exclusive Hyperliquid benefits: https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/join/AICOIN88
AiCoin exclusive Aster benefits: https://www.asterdex.com/zh-CN/referral/9C50e2

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。