Compiled & Edited by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Guest: Cathie Wood, ARK Invest CEO and CIO

Host: Robbie

Podcast Source: The Rollup

Original Title: Cathie Wood: The Next Bull Market Is Here

Broadcast Date: April 28, 2026

Editor’s Introduction

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood recently appeared on The Rollup, where she provided a clear Bitcoin price prediction: $730,000 in the baseline scenario for 2030, and $1.5 million in a bull market scenario. She stated that the current phase is one of bottoming out, and on-chain analysis shows that the absolute bottom is in the range of $50,000 to $55,000. She also presented a macro judgment overlooked by the market, stating that AI training costs are decreasing by 75% per year, and reasoning costs are dropping by 85%-95% annually, which will trigger a wave of 'good deflation.' Trueflation (a blockchain-based real-time inflation indicator) shows that the core inflation rate has fallen to 1.3%, and the Federal Reserve is likely to be forced to switch to an easier policy, which will serve as a catalyst for the next wave of digital assets. Additionally, she revealed that ARK's crypto research team has reduced the quarterly report preparation time by 75% using Claude Co-work, and believes that the payment layer of Agentic AI will inevitably be built on blockchain.

Highlight Quotes

Bitcoin Pricing and Cycle Judgment

• "Our baseline prediction is that Bitcoin will reach $730,000 by 2030, with $1.5 million in the bull market scenario."
• "A 50% drop does not constitute a bear market; compared to previous drops of 85% and 95%, this is trivial."
• "Our on-chain analyst David Puell said the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. But I doubt it will get that low."
• "The correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.14. In the past two cycles, gold started before Bitcoin, and this time it is the same."

Stablecoins and DeFi Evolution

• "CZ and I both agree that the biggest surprise from early Bitcoin until now is the rise of stablecoins."
• "Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to enjoy network effects."
• "We originally thought Bitcoin would take on the role that stablecoins currently play, especially in emerging markets. But stablecoins have become the bridge from traditional finance into DeFi."

Institutional Adoption Turning Point

• "Larry Fink’s transformation is profound. He finally understands that the internet never had a financial layer, and tokenization can fill that layer. His shift has given the entire industry permission; if he says it is important, I better learn about it too."
• "When we bought Bitcoin for the first time in 2015, we were laughed at; many thought it was just a marketing gimmick. This collective mockery made me even more certain that we had bet correctly."

Macro and Deflation Logic

• "The federal funds rate has already been reduced by 175 basis points, but the market narrative still says the Fed is too hawkish."
• "AI training costs decrease by 75% per year, and reasoning costs decrease by 85% to 95% annually. We will see a wave of significant positive deflation."

Agentic AI and Blockchain Intersection

• "In the future, we will have a bunch of chatbots working for us. We have to pay Claude and the bots providing data. It’s all machine-to-machine; a blockchain payment system is the only reasonable infrastructure."
• "Our crypto team uses Claude Co-work to create quarterly reports, cutting preparation time by 75%. The time saved has been entirely devoted to deep research."

ARK's Five Innovation Platforms Theory

Robbie: You have five innovation platforms that give rise to 15 technologies, and now these technologies are converging. Before we dive into the realm of digital assets and public chains, can you give us a macro perspective on how you view disruptive innovation?

Cathie Wood: The seeds for everything today were sown early in my career. In the 1980s and 1990s, I watched those seeds being planted. But cloud computing didn’t really emerge until AWS launched in 2006. At that time, I was trying to explain what cloud computing was to investors and consultants, and it was completely alien to them. The major breakthroughs in AI also had to wait for 2012’s deep learning and 2017’s Transformer architecture (which later spawned ChatGPT and natural language programming).

In the late 1990s, too much capital chased too few opportunities; the timing was too early. But today the situation is entirely reversed. The five innovation platforms and 15 technologies are all ready, yet investors are filled with fear. As a fund manager, I prefer to operate in such an environment rather than during the crazy bubble periods of the past.

Today's valuations are much lower than during bubble periods, the technologies are ready, and most importantly, the speed of cost decline is astonishing, meaning these technologies can reach more industries and individuals.

I founded ARK in 2014 because during the aftermath of the internet bubble bursting and the 2008 financial crisis, institutional investors became extremely risk-averse. The entire industry shifted to passive investing, contributing to the massive boom of ETFs. Even in the active management sector, fund managers heavily relied on benchmark indices to select targets. But we do not do that; our selection criteria are based on original research.

Traditional finance research teams are divided by industry, like having five consumer analysts and five healthcare analysts, etc. But we believe that to properly understand innovation, the research team must be organized around those 15 technologies, as these technologies cut across all industries.

Robbie: Why are investors so fearful? Is it because they have not clarified the organizational structure to understand the convergence of these technologies?

Cathie Wood: This convergence is indeed confusing. Tesla is the best example. Most research directors assigned Tesla to automotive analysts, but it should have at least been given to technology analysts; more specifically, it should have been collaboratively analyzed by three people: a robotics analyst, an energy storage analyst, and an AI analyst. If you hand it over to experts studying internal combustion engines and manually driven cars, the direction will be wrong; we are transitioning from the old world to electrification and autonomous driving.

AI is developing too quickly, impacting too many industries, which in itself is a disruptive experience. Research directors need time to figure out how to reorganize. They need to configure people according to technological directions while establishing a culture of collaboration. In traditional institutions, if a stock is assigned to an automotive analyst, no one else can touch it. This model must change because technology is converging, and analysts must collaborate to understand these companies' potentials.

Crypto Asset Allocation Logic

Robbie: We see a lot of tribalism in the crypto industry; the story of digital assets clearly started with Bitcoin. When you founded ARK in 2014, Bitcoin was still looking for its foothold. What was your view on Bitcoin back then? Was it already ready for institutional allocation?

Cathie Wood: It wasn’t at that time. I actually started paying attention to and discussing Bitcoin at my previous company, purely out of curiosity. I brought the analyst most obsessed with Bitcoin to ARK—who is now our Chief Futurist, Brett Winton.

When we founded ARK in 2014, we had only four innovation platforms, combining AI and blockchain into a category called "Next Generation Internet." This is also where the name of our fund, ARK, comes from. At that time, AI had just made breakthroughs in deep learning; it was still very new, and we were more excited by blockchain, though we were uncertain if it was worth being independent.

In 2015, we partnered with Art Laffer (the proposer of the Laffer Curve and a monetary economist, a student of Nobel laureate Robert Mundell) to publish the first Bitcoin white paper, with the core question being: can Bitcoin perform the three functions of money—medium of exchange, store of value, unit of account?

Art told me, "This is what I have been waiting for since the U.S. closed the gold window in 1971." I asked him how significant he thought this idea was, and he retorted, "How big is the U.S. monetary base?" At the time, it was $4.5 trillion, while Bitcoin's network value was only $6 billion. He was talking about trillions. I made a personal investment right then.

We searched for the best exposure for our clients, needing licenses from the NYSE and SEC, and ultimately found GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust). Bitcoin was $250 then. In the summer of 2015, when Greece threatened to exit the EU, we built our first position, because we noticed that whenever such geopolitical news broke, Bitcoin would rise. It could serve both as a risk-on asset and a safe haven, playing different roles at different times.

Robbie: Looking back at that era, the mainstream narrative back then was, "Institutions are going to buy the Bitcoin we hold." Now in 2026, we have indeed seen the adoption of ETFs, stablecoins, the explosion of tokenized assets, and the fusion of traditional institutions launching actual products with native crypto culture and infrastructure, which is the biggest merge in the digital asset space.

But an interesting phenomenon is that the crypto natives, the ones who should be the most convinced, are now spreading a sense of indifference and internal disappointment. Meanwhile, the big institutions and companies that are new to the game seem to be more optimistic. How do you interpret this state?

Cathie Wood: Several things are happening simultaneously. When we bought Bitcoin in 2015, we were really laughed at; many thought it was a marketing gimmick. When so many people mock or dismiss you, I actually become more interested.

Now the landscape is that Bitcoin has the track of the global monetary system. In terms of DeFi, Ethereum and Solana are dominating, and Hyperliquid (a decentralized perpetual contract trading platform) is also forming a pattern.

In terms of institutional adoption, I believe Larry Fink's shift is the critical turning point. He once led the charge against Bitcoin, but his change is profoundly thorough. His transformation stems from a vision of total tokenization. He finally understood that there was never a financial layer in the construction of the internet because no one anticipated e-commerce and online investment. Initially, it was just information exchange, and some even thought it was just gambling and illegal activities.

Fink's awakening has granted the entire industry permission. Previously, we had to fight with him and Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan). But once Fink shifted, the industry’s reaction was, if he says this is important, we need to learn it quickly. And BlackRock has Aladdin (a tech platform serving the asset management industry); if Fink says tokenization is important, then any asset management firm using Aladdin has to follow suit.

Another crucial development for DeFi is the evolution of stablecoins. I just did a podcast with CZ (Changpeng Zhao, founder of Binance) yesterday. We both agree that the biggest surprise from early Bitcoin to now is the rise of fiat-backed stablecoins. This was quite unconventional in the early crypto ecosystem. But now even Bitcoin OGs fully support it; Tether's Giancarlo and Paolo were among the earliest OGs.

Stablecoins have become the bridge from traditional finance into DeFi. We originally thought Bitcoin would take on this role, especially in emerging markets. But even in emerging markets, the Bitcoin community believes stablecoins are the humanitarian 'stepping stone' for people entering the crypto world, because most residents in emerging markets cannot bear the volatility of Bitcoin; they live on their daily income. Once their wealth grows, they will naturally shift from stablecoins to more investment varieties within the crypto ecosystem.

Another big question is whether stablecoins will be a winner-takes-all. Network effects suggest yes. Ironically, the delay of the CLARITY Act has given Tether and Circle more time to accumulate network effects. CZ believes there will be a significant explosion in stablecoins; our team members Lorenzo, David, and Ray also believe the same. But whether or not there is an explosion, everyone believes that in the end, it will consolidate into the hands of a few winners.

Why Tokenization is the Core Narrative

Robbie: We have been discussing on the show that the tokenization wave starts with non-speculative assets and then moves along the risk curve to government bonds, and we are now discussing tokenizing stocks. In your Big Ideas 2026 report, you mentioned that the global tokenized asset market could exceed $11 trillion by 2030. My question is, as these assets go on-chain, will they eventually fall into DeFi protocols? Where do you think value will accumulate mostly?

Cathie Wood: We tend to agree with your view. In innovation fields, such differentiation typically occurs: purely new players act faster, more flexibly, and more creatively; traditional players embrace new technology to reduce costs, improve efficiency, and enhance productivity. Among traditional players, the most radical and visionary companies will integrate the traditional markets.

The best example is Walmart and Amazon. During the internet bubble period, many thought traditional retail would be destroyed; indeed, many boutiques were wiped out, but Walmart leveraged the internet to build its online business (acquiring Jet), thereby integrating traditional retail space. Amazon is a rapidly growing giant, but both coexist. Now, Walmart is actually more aggressive than Amazon in drone delivery because of its better relationships with the companies and regulators it partners with. Amazon had led Walmart in drone technology for several generations but has made regulatory errors that slowed it down.

The same applies to the crypto world. Traditional players are embracing this technology. JPMorgan is particularly interesting; Jamie Dimon remains one of the biggest Bitcoin opponents in many ways, but he is letting the tech team and customer demands override his personal judgment.

As for the pure players in DeFi, Ethereum, Solana, Hyperliquid, we are betting on them. We have bought some DATs (Digital Asset Tokens) for our ETFs, including Bitmine Immersion and Soulmate from the Solana ecosystem. We know that too many DATs have been created, and there will inevitably be large-scale eliminations. We release trading updates every day, and you can see us gradually adding positions while shifting to pure exposure of Ethereum and Solana where allowed. Some platform providers do not allow flagship funds to hold Bitcoin ETF or Ethereum, Solana ETF, so we can only operate within the restrictions.

DeFi will grow explosively. The economic value distribution between Layer 1 and Layer 2 is still in negotiation; we are closely monitoring that. But we still remain optimistic about the 'Big Four,' and with WBTC available for migration to other platforms, Bitcoin is also included.

"Positive Deflation" and Current Macro Liquidity Situation

Robbie: People will say we’ve heard Cathie’s long-term bullish view. But we are in a period of geopolitical turmoil. Stocks peaked yesterday while Bitcoin hovers around $75,000. Raoul Pal tweeted that global liquidity is rising; how do you view the lag of the crypto market compared to stocks and commodities? What is your judgment on macro liquidity?

Cathie Wood: I wrote a letter at the beginning of the year that included an asset class correlation matrix. Many people assume Bitcoin is highly correlated with gold simply because we call Bitcoin "digital gold," but that’s not the case. From 2019 (when institutional interest started to rise) to now, the correlation coefficient between gold and Bitcoin is only 0.14. However, if we look at the last two cycles, gold started before Bitcoin; we believe this time is the same.

Bitcoin does have a significant pullback relative to gold, but in terms of long-term trends, the lows are rising. The Bitcoin bull market is still intact. A 50% drop? Compared to previous drops of 85% or 95%, this is a victory.

We believe Bitcoin will reach new highs in the next cycle. Many may not believe it, but we have stated clearly in our public records that in the baseline scenario for 2030, it is $730,000, and in the bull market scenario, it is $1.5 million.

I have been criticized for saying that stablecoins have eroded some of Bitcoin's roles. This has indeed happened in emerging markets, but people overlook another aspect: gold is rising, indicating that Bitcoin's role as a store of value is concurrently enhancing. The two effects offset each other, and in fact, the positive impact from gold is stronger.

On-chain analysis shows the absolute bottom is between $50,000 and $55,000. I don't think it will reach that low; just look at how Bitcoin and other assets are performing now.

In terms of liquidity, many people focus solely on the news that the Federal Reserve is reluctant to cut rates, but the federal funds rate has already declined by 175 basis points. The market narrative claims the Fed is too hawkish, but they have already begun easing. I believe inflation will be significantly lower than expected.

For example: Frito-Lay (Pepsi’s snack brand) reduced prices by 15% about three months ago and today announced sales far exceeded expectations. This is how a low-inflation world operates, exchanging lower prices for volume. This is especially true in the tech field, where AI training costs decrease by 75% per year, and AI reasoning costs (like the cost of ChatGPT answering a question) fall by 85% to 95% annually. We will see a wave of significant positive deflation, resulting in skyrocketing sales; this is also why we expect actual GDP growth rates to accelerate.

Trueflation (a blockchain-based inflation indicator that tracks prices of tens of thousands of products in real-time) shows that even accounting for oil price fluctuations, the consumer price inflation rate is 1.8%, while the core inflation rate is only 1.3%. Over the past two to three years, various inflation indicators have fluctuated in the 2%-3% range; Trueflation’s data suggests all of these will trend downward.

If inflation truly declines, the Fed will ease. Another reason is that while the unemployment rate is generally low, looking at it in parts, entry-level jobs are under pressure; companies are not laying off workers but are also not hiring. The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 is 8.5% (which peaked at 11%), indicating there is slack in the labor market, wage growth is slowing, while productivity is accelerating. The reason for Fed easing is that money demand is rising relative to supply, which is a result of real economic growth accelerating. The Fed's responsibility is to support actual economic growth.

Robbie: A new Fed chairman is about to take office, and recently someone discovered that his portfolio includes crypto funds. Do you generally see the Fed recognizing "positive deflation" and moving toward easing? How much impact will this have on digital assets? Is the four-year cycle still at play, or could the Fed's dovish shift potentially accelerate the market?

Cathie Wood: It’s worth noting the behavior of Bitcoin ETF holders. During this downturn, they remained quite steadfast. If you are an institutional investor just getting acquainted with this new asset class, hearing about the four-year cycle, and then seeing Bitcoin drop 50%, as traditional asset management, that is a serious bear market, which is an opportunity. We have indeed seen behavior of buying on dips. Weak hands have exited, but truly understanding this asset class has led institutions to refill.

As for whether this is the four-year cycle at work, I am not sure. We experienced a flash crash that triggered automatic deleveraging. This was caused by another round of tariff turmoil triggering a chain reaction, leading to software failures on Binance, which caused automatic deleveraging. Those who thought they had hedged on two exchanges found their hedges completely ineffective, resulting in losses of $28-30 billion. But we believe this has been washed out.

Perhaps institutional involvement is accelerating the four-year cycle. But the bottom line is, we are in a bottoming process, and liquidity improvements will propel the next major market.

To add a more economic perspective: U.S. money supply growth is currently at 4.9%, with nominal GDP around 5%, roughly matching. However, trade frictions might have slowed the velocity of money, which would dampen the effective impact of money supply growth. This variable should be closely monitored in the coming months.

AI Agents and the Large-Scale Integration of Blockchain

Robbie: You mentioned that institutional holders haven't sold. At the same time, Bitcoin block rewards are halving and diminishing in their impact. We only have a few minutes left, but we must talk about integration, the core topic you often discuss. How do blockchain, cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets, and DeFi protocols merge with broader disruptive technologies? Where are the intersections of blockchain with AI and healthcare? In the early days, there was excitement about putting health records on the blockchain, but now the industry has become highly financialized. Is there still a direction for this?

Cathie Wood: You’ve heard of Agentic AI, right? In the future, we will have a bunch of chatbots working for us.

Our crypto team is a good example. We use Claude Co-work (a desktop AI collaboration tool by Anthropic) for our reports. We release a Bitcoin report and a DeFi report quarterly. Today, the Bitcoin report was published. We’ve compressed the time taken to produce these lengthy reports (with lots of charts) by 75%. And it will only get better. This productivity unleashed allows us to conduct deeper research rather than spend time on administrative tasks.

Looking ahead, we will eventually let robots automatically handle these reports. By then, we'll need a payment system to pay Claude and bots from other companies providing data. It’s all machine-to-machine transactions, and what could be more suitable than an internet financial system (blockchain)? Removing traditional financial intermediaries is what will truly unleash this productivity.

Agentic Commerce is similar. I hate shopping; in the future, I will have an AI shopping agent that understands my style and will be trained by my personal shopping advisor Lillian, but the payment aspect must be built on blockchain.

The transformation in the healthcare sector is also taking place. In drug discovery and clinical trials, we see the emergence of labs without human involvement, relying on DeFi and blockchain technology for peer-to-peer collaboration. They are called Self-driving Labs, and it is becoming a trend. In the future, Agentic AI combined with blockchain payment ecosystems will become mainstream.

Robbie: Well, Cathie, thank you for taking the time to talk with us today. We share a lot of views in common, and I appreciate that greatly. Wish you a happy life, and may you continue to spread the faith in innovation, digital assets, and integration.