Author: ARK Invest

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: SpaceX submitted a confidential application for an IPO to the SEC on April 1, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and a fundraising size of up to $75 billion, expected to land on NASDAQ in June 2026. This will be the largest IPO in capital markets history.

As one of the largest venture capital holders in SpaceX, ARK Invest has released this comprehensive investment guide, answering the most pressing questions for investors from valuation logic, business breakdown to fund holding strategies.

Main Text:

On April 1, 2026, SpaceX submitted a confidential registration statement draft to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), marking the first step towards listing. This will be the largest IPO in capital markets history. The company's target valuation is $1.75 trillion, with a potential fundraising amount of up to $75 billion, expected to debut on NASDAQ as early as June 2026.

For ARK Venture Fund investors, this news is not surprising. SpaceX has long held the largest position in the fund, making up 17.02% of the fund's net assets as of March 31, 2026. ARK has been building and refining its investment thesis since SpaceX was an early venture target, and now it is well-prepared for the influx of questions from investors.

This guide addresses some of the most crucial of those.

What exactly has SpaceX submitted? What happens next?

SpaceX's confidential submission allows the company to have its financial data reviewed by the SEC before disclosing it to the public. According to SEC regulations, a public S-1 prospectus must be released at least 15 days before the company begins pitching shares to investors. This prospectus will be the first window for the public to see the complete financial picture of SpaceX, including revenue data, profit margin structure, accounting treatment of the xAI merger in February 2026, defense contract disclosures, and the governance framework that determines how much control Elon Musk retains post-IPO.

This IPO, internally coded as "Project Apex," is overseen by a super underwriting group comprising at least 21 banks. Listing on NASDAQ in June 2026 will make SpaceX the first shot in what Bloomberg calls the "super IPO trifecta," ahead of OpenAI and Anthropic, and will break Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO record of $29 billion by nearly three times.

Is the $1.75 trillion valuation justifiable?

ARK's research aims to answer this question. The most rigorous answer is that this valuation reflects a set of specific assumptions about the future, rather than the current reality.

At a $1.75 trillion valuation, compared to an estimated revenue of about $18.5 billion for 2025, SpaceX's price-to-sales ratio at the IPO price would be approximately 95 times. No comparable company of this size has ever been traded at this multiple in the public market. This valuation reflects investors' beliefs about SpaceX's future form, which requires looking at each business segment separately.

Starlink is the financial engine. By early 2026, SpaceX's satellite internet service had surpassed 10 million global active users, with expected revenue exceeding $20 billion in 2026. ARK's research has long identified Starlink as the fastest-growing telecom network in terms of user and revenue growth globally, and this assessment has proven to be conservative. According to ARK's research, the scaled annual revenue opportunity in the satellite connectivity market could approach $160 billion, with Starlink structurally capturing a disproportionately large share.

Launch services remain foundational. SpaceX completed 165 orbital launches in 2025, deploying about 85% of the world's spacecraft. ARK's research shows that since 2008, the company has reduced launch costs by approximately 95%—from about $15,600 per kilogram to under $1,000 per kilogram for Falcon 9. According to ARK's research, the fully reusable Starship aims for a cost of less than $100 per kilogram, which would achieve another order of magnitude decrease in costs and open up currently non-existent market spaces.

The xAI merger and orbital computing represent the most forward-looking dimensions of valuation. The merger in February 2026 vertically integrates launch, communication, and AI model infrastructure under one entity. ARK's research believes that, with launch costs under $100 per kilogram, the computing cost of orbital data centers could be about 25% lower than terrestrial solutions, without facing grid interconnection delays, approval frictions, and power scarcity issues. Musk has indicated the company's goal is to launch 100 gigawatts of AI computing power annually. This argument is still in its early stages, but it is precisely this that gives the merged entity a strategic premium that no aggregated model of the divisions can fully capture.

ARK's research believes that the $1.75 trillion IPO target is built on credible development trajectories of SpaceX's core business segments, and the structural advantages supporting these trajectories are enduring. Starlink's user growth curve continues to exceed expectations. The decline in launch costs follows the predictable path of Wright's Law. The xAI merger adds a strategic dimension to the platform that no comparable public company has attempted to replicate. The public S-1 will provide financial transparency, allowing investors to rigorously test these assumptions, and ARK believes the fundamentals can withstand this scrutiny.

Can Elon Musk's goals be achieved?

ARK's investment framework is based on a simple premise: bold technological visions are worth serious consideration if supported by demonstrable cost curve declines and accelerated adoption—even if market consensus is skeptical.

By this standard, SpaceX's historical track record is commendable. Musk's goal of a fully reusable rocket was once considered unrealistic by the traditional aerospace industry, yet SpaceX achieved it. His vision to create a global satellite internet for underserved billions was deemed financially unviable, but Starlink has proven otherwise. The company has deployed over 10,000 Starlink satellites in low Earth orbit, serving over 10 million users, and achieved cash flow break-even in 2023.

More grand goals—including lunar factories and a network of 1 million orbital data centers—still have distance to go for concept validation. However, ARK's research does not require every goal to be achieved to support the investment thesis. The existing business segments, growing along current trajectories, already provide a compelling investment case. The option value embedded in the more ambitious goals is an upside potential not reflected in ARK's current valuation model—this part of the model is being updated.

In ARK's view, Musk's goals are radical by any historical standard, and SpaceX has repeatedly proven its ability to compress the timeline of skeptics' expectations. While this is not a guarantee, ARK believes that this historical record itself is a significant data point.

Why would investors want exposure to SpaceX before the IPO?

This may be the most important question for investors evaluating ARK Venture Fund, with several layers of answers.

The window for value creation has shifted forward. The age of IPOs for private companies is increasing, with the median age of U.S. company IPOs reaching 12 years in 2025, compared to only 5 years in 1999. The most watched companies now create significant value while still private. Investors who enter only after a public listing may miss the most notable period of value appreciation.

IPO price does not equal the purchase price for most investors. When a company of SpaceX's size goes public, share allocation is preferentially distributed to institutional investors. Retail investors who cannot directly participate in the IPO allocation will buy in the public market at a price determined by first-day supply and demand—which is often significantly higher than the IPO price. Historical experience shows that high-profile IPOs with high valuations often experience significant volatility post-listing before stabilizing at long-term price levels.

ARK Venture Fund investors have access equivalent to VC levels. ARK Venture Fund holds SpaceX through direct equity ownership—without intermediaries in the secondary market, special purpose vehicles (SPVs), or structured products that add fees and valuation premiums. Investors in the ARK Venture Fund have maintained exposure through the valuation journey from $350 billion (2024), $800 billion (2025), to $1.25 trillion post-merger, up to the current $1.75 trillion IPO target. This entire value creation trajectory occurs in the primary market, precisely as designed when ARK Venture Fund was established.

What will happen to ARK Venture Fund's holdings after SpaceX goes public?

ARK anticipated this scenario and its impact on investors when designing the venture fund.

ARK Venture Fund is an evergreen crossover fund designed to hold positions throughout the entire lifecycle of a company from early and late private phases to IPO and beyond. SpaceX's IPO is not an issue that the fund needs to "manage"; the investment vehicle itself is designed for that.

After SpaceX completes its IPO, the fund's holdings may be subject to standard lock-up period restrictions during which ARK cannot sell its SpaceX shares. During the lock-up period, new funds from new investors injected into ARK Venture Fund will be deployed in other private companies, accelerating the rebalancing towards the fund's nearly 80% private exposure target.

Once the lock-up period ends, the fund will have complete flexibility to manage its SpaceX position—reducing exposure when appropriate and reallocating funds into next-generation private innovation companies within ARK's five core technology platforms (AI, robotics, energy storage, multi-omics, and blockchain technology).

The performance of any holdings in the ARK Venture Fund—whether public or private—directly reflects in the fund's net asset value (NAV). The valuation growth of SpaceX during the private phase has been reflected in real-time in the fund's NAV. Due to the ARK Venture Fund's crossover nature, this relationship will not change at the time of the IPO. If SpaceX goes public at a higher valuation, ARK Venture Fund investors will accordingly benefit, and vice versa. For long-term investors, the IPO represents a significant liquidity event in the company's lifecycle, and getting positioned ahead of the repricing opportunity in the public market is precisely the advantage of the ARK Venture Fund.

The ARK Venture Fund's portfolio extends far beyond SpaceX. Current holdings include OpenAI, Anthropic, Neuralink, Databricks, Replit, Crusoe, Radiant, Boom, Lambda, Discord, and over 50 other private companies. If SpaceX's IPO is completed, it will be a significant milestone, also releasing capital and portfolio flexibility, allowing ARK to continue building what it believes to be the most attractive private innovation portfolio accessible to ordinary investors.

Important Information

SpaceX's IPO application is still a confidential registration statement draft at the time of this publication. Final valuation, timing, and structure have not been confirmed. The public S-1 prospectus has not yet been released. All quoted data reflects publicly reported estimates and ARK's independent research. This article does not constitute investment advice.

Holdings may change at any time. This is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any specific securities.