Core Summary:
Today, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure due to macro geopolitical events. BTC has fallen below $71,000, and the F&G Fear Index has dropped to 12, a new low for this cycle. However, the funding rate has turned positive from negative, and the liquidation volume has plummeted by 44%, indicating that the deleveraging process is practically complete, and the market structure presents positive signals.
1. Market Overview
Price and Market Value:
Today, BTC is quoted at $71,080, down 0.70% for the day, above the key support level of $69,500; ETH is quoted at $2,197.14, down 0.75% for the day, testing the $2,100 support level. The total market cap of cryptocurrencies has fallen back to $2.500T, with a 24-hour trading volume of $66.73B. BTC's dominance rate remains at 56.93%, while ETH's dominance rate is at 10.61%.
Performance of Mainstream Coins:
| Coin | Price | 24h Change |
| BTC | $71,080 | -0.70% |
| ETH | $2,197 | -0.75% |
| BNB | $596.43 | 0.0023 |
| SOL | $82.11 | -0.18% |
| XRP | $1.33 | -0.24% |
BNB has risen against the trend today by 0.23%, making it one of the few mainstream coins with positive returns.
2. Today's Major Event: The Hormuz Strait Blockade Order
U.S. President Trump announced on Monday at 10 AM Eastern Time that he has ordered the U.S. Navy to formally blockade all Iranian vessels in the Hormuz Strait. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard subsequently issued a statement warning that "any military vessel approaching the strait will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and will face severe consequences."
Market Impact:
The Hormuz Strait accounts for about 20% of global oil trade volume. If the blockade order is enforced, global oil prices could soar from the current $96.55 to over $110, inflation expectations may rise again, putting further pressure on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, and risk assets will be under pressure. The transmission chain between BTC and energy-inflation-rates will be reactivated.
Key Future Milestones:
Last Saturday, marathon negotiations in Islamabad broke down after 21 hours, with Iran rejecting the U.S. proposal made at 3 PM. The temporary ceasefire agreement between both parties will expire on April 21, and currently, neither side has expressed a timetable for further discussions. April 21 will become a key observation point for the geopolitical crisis.
3. Continuous Inflow of ETF Funds
Despite extreme panic in the market, institutional funds continue to buy against the trend:
BTC Spot ETF (4/10):
- Net inflow for the day: +$240.42M
- Cumulative net inflow: $56.74B
- Total AUM: $94.96B
Main sources of inflow: IBIT (BlackRock) +$137.56M (accounting for 57% of the day's inflow), FBTC (Fidelity) +$78.02M, BITB (Bitwise) +$9.53M.
ETH Spot ETF (4/10):
- Net inflow for the day: +$64.95M
- Cumulative net inflow: $11.67B
- Total AUM: $12.96B
ETHA (BlackRock) had a single-day inflow of $53.70M, accounting for 82.7% of total inflow into ETH ETFs that day, showing BlackRock's dominance in the ETH ETF market.
4. Derivatives Market: Funding Rate Turns Positive, Deleveraging Basically Complete
Open Interest (OI):
- Total Market OI: $113.99B (-0.90%)
- BTC OI: $51.56B (-1.59%)
- ETH OI: $30.15B (-1.47%)
Liquidation Data:
- 24h Total Liquidation: $170.29M (-44.41%)
- Long Liquidation: $93.89M, Short Liquidation: $76.47M
- 130,554 people liquidated across the network
The liquidation volume has sharply dropped by 44% in a single day, a strong signal that the deleveraging is nearing its end. The liquidation volumes of longs and shorts are approaching balance, with the market transitioning from the deleveraging phase to the repricing phase.
Funding Rate (Major Signal):
- BTC Funding Rate: +0.0021% (Yesterday -0.0030% → Today turned positive!)
- ETH Funding Rate: +0.0026%
Various exchanges BTC rates: Binance +0.0009%, OKX +0.0077%, Bybit +0.0033%, Bitget +0.0100% (approaching the upper limit, with the most bullish sentiment).
The funding rate turning positive from negative is an important signal of the market sentiment shifting from panic selling to cautious buying, usually appearing in the bottom area following the completion of deleveraging.
5. On-Chain Data
Whale Activity:
- Whale exchange inflow over the past 30 days has dropped to $2.96 billion (the lowest since October 2025), indicating a decrease in large holders' willingness to sell.
- Long-term holders (LTH) have accumulated approximately $49 billion worth of BTC.
- Net outflow of about 7,900 BTC to exchanges (4/9-10), with on-chain assets moving to cold storage.
Total market cap of stablecoins: $249.63B (an increase of $8.6B from last week's $241B), with continuous expansion of on-chain dollar liquidity.
6. F&G Index and Sentiment
The Fear & Greed Index has dropped to 12 today, remaining in the extreme fear zone for the 27th consecutive day, marking the lowest point of this cycle. Historical 7-day trend: 11 → 17 → 14 → 16 → 15 → 16 → 12.
Historically, extreme fear zones (index 15) often correspond to better mid-to-long-term buying opportunities. However, under the continued pressure of macro conditions, the sentiment bottom and price bottom may have a time lag.
7. Risks and Outlook
Main Risks:
- Whether the Hormuz Strait blockade order will be enforced
- Geopolitical escalation before the April 21 ceasefire agreement expires
- Persistent CPI data above expectations hindering the Federal Reserve's path to cut rates
Positive Signals:
- Funding rates turning positive, indicating longs starting to rebuild
- Deleveraging is basically complete, with the market entering a stabilization period
- Continuous net inflows into ETFs, with institutions positioning against the trend
- CLARITY Act scheduled for review this week, with a 72% probability of passage
Technical Perspective:
BTC is currently situated in a critical decision-making range between the support of $69,500 and the resistance of $73,000. Maintaining the support at $69,500 is key to sustaining a short-term optimistic outlook.
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