The focus today is on two things: one is the CPI data that has already been released, which, although quite high, does not have much impact on the market. After all, it is collateral damage caused by high oil prices during the war. Fortunately, the United States and Iran have temporarily ceased hostilities, and the market has relatively high expectations for the ceasefire. Therefore, the impact of this CPI is not significant, and the market has already fully anticipated that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of the year.
The other matter is the negotiations between the United States and Iran. Representatives from both sides have arrived in Pakistan today, with the U.S. representative being Vance. Although the Prime Minister of Pakistan expressed strong hopes for this negotiation, the market generally believes that the possibility of reaching an agreement in one go is very low, especially while Israel is still attacking Lebanon. Even Trump himself thinks that the probability of reopening the Strait of Hormuz in the short term is low.
Today is the last day of the week. I always worry that Trump might stir up some trouble over the weekend. I hope nothing happens this week and that we can have a quiet weekend. I also hope that at least this weekend, Iran and the United States can reach the conditions for continuing negotiations. Recently, I have been passively sponsoring the war, and my wallet can hardly take it anymore.
Looking back at the Bitcoin data, the data is still very normal. This has been emphasized multiple times; prices below $70,000 for $BTC still have a strong buying sentiment. Even if prices may continue to drop in the future, the situation of long-term investors selling at low prices is becoming less and less common. However, from my personal perspective, I do not believe that this is the reversal of BTC. Until there are new developments in monetary policy, it may still be in a rebound trend.
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