What to know : Circle dropped 10% after Compass Point downgraded the stock to Sell, warning that USDC growth is shifting to lower-margin platforms and that profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 may be too optimistic. Bullish slid 6% after Rosenblatt cut its rating to Neutral on valuation concerns, saying the exchange now trades at a premium to peers and faces pressure as crypto activity cools and IPO-related revenue tailwinds fade.
Crypto prices and U.S. stocks rallied Thursday on diminishing Middle East worries, but Circle (CRCL), Bullish (BLSH) and Coinbase (COIN) all posted sizable declines.
Circle tumbled 9.9% to $85.10 after Compass Point downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral and cut its price target by $2 to $77. The brokerage said USDC has held up better than in prior down cycles, but argued that supply growth is moving into lower-margin areas. It also said Circle now trades at 40 times what it called optimistic 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimates, and warned that consensus forecasts for 2026 and 2027 may have to come down as first-half 2026 gross margins contract.
The firm said more USDC is now sitting on platforms such as Sky, Binance and Ethena, where revenue-sharing agreements reduce Circle’s economics. In bear markets, that can matter. A stablecoin may keep its supply, but the profit pool can shrink if more of that supply sits in lower-yield channels.
Bullish also faced sell-side pressure, declining 6.5% to $36.12 after Rosenblatt downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy while keeping its $39 price target. Rosenblatt said Bullish now trades at 28 times consensus adjusted EBITDA, a premium to peers, including Coinbase and Robinhood (HOOD), and added that estimates are becoming more vulnerable as crypto activity weakens and IPO-related boosts to non-trading revenue fade.
Bitcoin , meanwhile, climbed above the $72,000 mark and is trading at its highest level in more than three weeks. The move appeared tied to what markets read as positive news around the U.S.-Iran conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that he had instructed his cabinet to launch direct negotiations with Lebanon.
The development drew attention because senior U.S. officials said envoy Steve Witkoff had asked Netanyahu to scale back strikes in Lebanon and open talks. It also marked a shift from President Donald Trump’s earlier stance, after he gave Netanyahu room to continue the war in Lebanon shortly before announcing a ceasefire with Iran on Tuesday.
The Nasdaq climbed 0.8% and the S&P 500 rose 0.6%.
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