Original｜Odaily Planet Daily（@OdailyChina）
Author｜Wenser（@wenser 2010）
After nearly 6 weeks of sudden strikes due to the US-Iran conflict, with the news of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement coming in, gold has finally returned to over 4800 US dollars after nearly a month.
From the earlier mentioned gold token XAUm in October 2024, to the precise prediction of gold rising from 3500 US dollars to over 3900 US dollars in September last year accurately, and then to the mentioned gold token XAUT when gold rose to around 4500 US dollars in January this year, I personally started my regular investment journey while keeping an eye on gold.
On the macro level, against the backdrop of intensified geopolitical conflicts, central banks worldwide continue to increase their gold holdings, with the People's Bank of China making significant purchases for 17 consecutive months; major investment institutions and banks are also very confident in the rise of gold prices.
In light of this, this article from Odaily Planet Daily will explore a question from recent industry dynamics and changes in political-economic situations: What is the upper limit for gold this year?
Gold price trends in the past six months
Market predictions of gold price fluctuations: Prices may be below 4200 US dollars before June, while the annual peak may exceed 6000 US dollars
Since the establishment of prediction markets, thanks to factors such as betting on real currency and “collective wisdom”, they have become an important barometer for predicting asset prices. At present, Polymarket shows the gold price range for this year is around 3800-6000 US dollars.
On Polymarket, the total bets for mid-year gold price predictions currently exceed 3.5 million US dollars, among which:
The probability that it will be below 4200 US dollars is the highest, at 40%;
The probability that it will be above 5500 US dollars is the second highest, at 28%;
Next is above 5700 US dollars (probability reported at 17%) and below 3800 US dollars (probability reported at 13%).
On Polymarket, the bet money for annual gold price predictions is currently nearly 200,000 US dollars, among which:
The probability of being above 6000 US dollars is the highest, reaching 46%;
The probability of being above 7000 US dollars is the second highest, reaching 25%;
The probability of being above 8000 US dollars is again, at 16%.
In other words, although the trading volume is relatively low, participants in the prediction market still set the price above 6000 US dollars with a nearly 20% margin for this year.
It is worth noting that the event rules regarding gold prices on Polymarket use the official settlement prices of CME gold (GC) futures contract active months, where intra-day trading, highest prices, lowest prices, buying, selling, mid-price, or indicative prices are not counted.
Macro purchases: Central banks continue to increase their holdings, Turkey's central bank trades gold for cash
As the largest buyer of gold, which is the number one global asset by market value, central banks wielding fiat currency minting rights naturally lead the purchase.
In early April, the World Gold Council released its February central bank gold purchase report. It indicated that central banks net bought 19 tons of gold in February 2026, although still lower than the average monthly report of 26 tons in 2025, it shows a rebound compared to the net purchase of 5 tons in January 2026. Additionally, the report shows some central banks maintained a record of continuous net gold purchases, accumulating 44 tons from November 2024 to February 2026; the Czech Republic reported net purchases for the 36th consecutive month. China increased its gold holdings for the 16th consecutive month (February data).
Goldman Sachs stated in a research report at the end of March that supported by the ongoing gold purchases from central banks and the anticipated two additional interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, the medium-term outlook for gold remains stable, and prices are expected to rise to 5400 US dollars per ounce by the end of the year. UBS also predicted at the end of March that the target price for gold in early 2027 would be 5900 US dollars per ounce.
On April 7, China's central bank announced that its gold reserves at the end of March were 74.38 million ounces (about 2313.48 tons), an increase of 160,000 ounces (about 4.98 tons) from the previous month, where gold reserves were 74.22 million ounces (about 2308.5 tons), marking the 17th consecutive month of increased gold holdings.
On the other hand, traditional gold reserve countries have mostly maintained stable holdings, with little change – such as the United States (about 8100 tons), Germany (about 3300 tons), Italy (about 2400 tons), and France (about 2400 tons).
As for the issue regarding Turkey's central bank, which has sold over 120 tons of gold worth 20 billion US dollars in the last three weeks due to the pressures in the Middle East from the US-Iran conflict, many people only know part of the story. In reality, most of this gold has not flowed into the market, but instead is linked to gold-currency swap futures. In simpler terms, the Turkish central bank is merely pledging its gold reserves to obtain US dollars, thereby stabilizing its domestic currency, the lira.
From a structural perspective, the ratio of gold reserves of emerging market central banks to total reserves is still low, just over 10%, and China is even in single digits, indicating there is still ample room for global central banks to increase their holdings, and the strategic demand for "de-dollarization" will provide rigid buying support for gold for several years.
Crypto purchases: Stablecoin giant Tether enters the top 30 global gold reserves
In February, Wall Street investment bank Jefferies released a report stating that stablecoin issuer Tether has been steadily increasing its gold reserves, which had reached around 148 tons by January 31, valued at approximately 23 billion US dollars at current prices, surpassing several sovereign states to rank among the top 30 gold holders globally.
The report showed that Tether acquired about 26 tons of gold in the fourth quarter of 2025 and continued to purchase about 6 tons in January this year, with its quarterly gold buying scale only following a few national central banks like Poland and Brazil. Its current gold reserve scale exceeds that of Australia, the UAE, Qatar, South Korea, and Greece.
The institution pointed out that the aforementioned gold is primarily used to support the US dollar stablecoin USDT and the gold-backed token XAUT (the current FDV market cap exceeds 3.3 billion US dollars). Since Tether is a private company, its disclosed data may only reflect a minimum level; the actual gold holdings may be higher than reported figures. Tether's CEO Paolo Ardoino previously stated the company plans to allocate about 10%–15% of its portfolio to physical gold.
Retail purchases: High-level positions determine stability in holdings
In 2026, the participation of retail investors in gold investments has significantly increased, with Asian capital emerging as a new force in the gold market.
In January, Asia's gold ETFs saw inflows as high as 10 billion US dollars in a single month.
Additionally, Chinese investors purchased 432 tons of gold bars and coins throughout 2025, setting a historical high. The scenes of long queues outside domestic gold shops and the frequent sellouts of accumulated gold on bank apps reflect the strong recognition of ordinary investors regarding gold's value retention function.
However, the flip side of the retail purchases is the intensification of gold price fluctuations. In January, news of Kevin Walsh being nominated as Federal Reserve Chairman sparked a single-day plunge in gold prices exceeding 9%, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly 40 years; in March, gold prices briefly fell below 4200 US dollars per ounce, with numerous retail investors trapped at high levels, forming a stark contrast between "retail panic selling and sovereign funds buying at lower levels," especially in light of the People's Bank of China making significant increases.
Thus, the large number of retail investors stuck at high levels makes the gold selling volume this year unlikely to be overly large.
Institutional views: Gold will reach new highs, with prices around 5200 US dollars at the end of June
From the institutional perspective, UBS, which has always paid considerable attention to precious metal markets, has frequently expressed its views this year.
On January 21, UBS precious metals strategist Joni Teves stated that the demand for diversified allocation is the core driver behind the current rise in gold prices, with institutional investors, retail investors, and various countries' central banks all increasing their gold holdings to respond to macro uncertainties. It is expected that gold prices will still have upward momentum in the first half of the year, and if market concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve continue to rise, gold prices are likely to challenge the 5000 US dollars per ounce mark in the first half. Silver, benefiting from rising gold prices and its own supply-demand gap narrowing, may challenge 100 US dollars per ounce this year.
Subsequently, both gold and silver surged, with the former surging to nearly 5600 US dollars per ounce and the latter reaching close to 120 US dollars per ounce.
On February 24, UBS stated that it expects gold prices will reach 6200 US dollars per ounce in the coming months as the key factors driving strong growth over the past year remain intact.
Thereafter, on February 28, the US-Iran conflict officially broke out, with Israel and the US launching joint attacks on Iran, further intensifying regional warfare.
On March 5, analysts from UBS pointed out in a report that data dating back to 1900 shows that for the financial markets, economic risks have proven to be more significant than geopolitical risks. They stated that in most cases, if investors can "see through" the noise of geopolitical issues, they perform best.
At the end of March, UBS predicted the target price for gold in early 2027 would be 5900 US dollars per ounce.
On April 2, UBS strategist Joni Teves predicted that despite recent fluctuations in gold prices, this year’s gold prices will reach new highs, and recent adjustments should be viewed as buying opportunities. UBS expects the average gold price in 2026 to be 5000 US dollars per ounce, and for 2027 and 2028 to be 4800 and 4250 US dollars, respectively.
On April 7, UBS lowered its gold price expectation for the end of June to 5,200 US dollars per ounce due to increased market volatility and a cooling of investor demand.
Additionally, in early February, JPMorgan publicly expressed a strong bullish outlook on gold, believing that gold's end-of-year target could reach 6300 US dollars, indicating a potential increase of 34%.
Understanding the essence of gold: Safe-haven asset and core of the de-dollarization currency system
Finally, let’s briefly discuss the essence of gold investment.
In 1971, the United States handily dismantled the Bretton Woods system it had established. Subsequently, gold prices skyrocketed from 35 US dollars per ounce to nearly 5000 US dollars per ounce today, accumulating an increase of over 94 times in 55 years, and considering a 4-5 year investment cycle, it has traversed at least 10 rounds of bull-bear cycles.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, the process of "de-dollarization" accelerated abruptly, leading global central banks into a new round of gold reserve competition, gradually creating the "super cycle" of gold in nearly three years.
As we enter 2026, with the influence of Trump being provoked into military action in the Middle East by Netanyahu of Israel (Note: It is rumored that Netanyahu personally lobbied for the US to strike Iran), despite the impacts of AI, technology, and domestic industrial relocation affecting the political and economic situation in the United States, the credibility of the US dollar's monetary system has already begun to show signs of decline.
In January this year, renowned investment bank Morgan Stanley remarked that the role of the dollar in the global system is being continuously and gradually weakened, but due to the limited credible alternative currencies available, in an increasingly multipolar world, gold has become the biggest challenger to the dollar. According to Morgan Stanley's research, the international influence of the dollar has shown declines across various indicators, including its declining share in central banks' foreign exchange reserves, and its reduced usage in corporate and emerging market sovereign issuances. Nevertheless, the dollar still holds the largest share in global reserves, indicating that no meaningfully significant challenger has yet emerged. However, once gold is considered, the situation changes. The proportion of gold held in assets by central banks has risen from around 14% to 25%-28%, with this upward trend showing "no signs of slowing down." Risk premiums and hedging behaviors will continue to pressure the dollar, while supporting gold demand.
Although the question of whether gold can act as a "safe-haven asset" has been debated in recent chaotic situations in Dubai due to its portability issues, looking at the current international trend, it remains the only hard currency recognized by the international community apart from the US dollar.
The fact that Iran is using the renminbi and cryptocurrencies such as BTC to collect tolls after closing the Strait of Hormuz implies, to some extent, the reality of the lowered credibility of the dollar in the global economic system.
Thus, despite warnings from Bloomberg Intelligence's senior market analyst Mike McGlone in his April metals market outlook report that gold and silver may have peaked and "a once-in-a-generation high point may have passed," given Trump's current indecisive political posture, gold is still at a relative low point this year.
In summary, the gold market trend in 2026 can be characterized as "topping in the first quarter, shallow pullback in the second quarter, and bottoming and rising in the third and fourth quarters", with the core logic still being upward, but volatility will be significantly higher than in previous years.
Currently at the 4800 US dollars per ounce price level, gold might be in a phase of corrective rebound, with 4900 US dollars being a key resistance range recently. The progress of the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations, US CPI data, and Federal Reserve policy signals will be the most critical price catalysts in the short term. If the ceasefire agreement continues and oil prices decline further, with expectations of interest rate cuts rising, gold prices are likely to challenge the 5200 US dollars mark by the end of the second quarter.
In the second half of the year, as US inflationary pressures ease with falling oil prices, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window could reopen, allowing a weaker dollar to provide greater upward space for gold. Additionally, the unpredictable situation surrounding the mid-term elections will also offer some political momentum for the rise of gold and BTC.
In terms of price limits, considering institutional predictions and market trends, the reasonable upper limit forecast range for gold prices this year is 5400 to 6000 US dollars per ounce, with an optimistic scenario rising to 6200-6400 US dollars per ounce.
To summarize, the United States is like the Kingdom of Qin at the end of its strength, "once Qin loses its deer, all heroes will pursue it." In this situation, among global assets, if considering stability, security, and value appreciation, who else other than gold fits the bill?
Recommended reading
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