24 hours ago, the Iranian Foreign Ministry was still publicly announcing the closure of the negotiation window, while Trump was making harsh statements, saying, "If Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz, we will destroy entire civilizations." The missile and drone flights among the U.S., Israel, and Iran were frequent, and Iran's "Axis of Resistance" network was frequently harassing the Gulf region, with the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait also facing blockades from Houthi forces.

At that time, the prediction market priced the probability of "a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran before April 7" at 4%.

Within less than 12 hours under this geopolitical backdrop, the three parties announced a ceasefire declaration, each claiming to "win." The originally single-digit ceasefire probability instantly surged to 99%, and the crude oil index plummeted by 15%. Even now, the market is still re-pricing based on post-announcement information.

However, a group of people had already begun to position for this ceasefire last month. On March 26, Beijing time, the prediction market monitoring channel PolyBeats pushed a news alert:

Six insider accounts collectively invested $395k betting that "the U.S. and Iran would reach a ceasefire." Among them, $185k was invested in "ceasefire before March 31," and $99k was invested in "ceasefire before April 30."

These individuals made a profit of $1 million from this round of ceasefire events. They are called "insiders" precisely because they have replicated this astonishing trading operation multiple times.

A new account was funded with $20,000 at the end of February and withdrew $400,000 today

We take one of those six accounts as an example.

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