Recently, the yield on the US10-year Treasury bond has returned to above4.3%. Many people feel overwhelmed when they see this number, but it can be understood more simply: the cost for the US to borrow money has increased again, and this change will affect the stock market, the US dollar, and global funding prices, causing the market to become tense.
Let’s first look at the three most important numbers. The US Treasury Department's page shows,
On April 6, 2026, the yield on the2-year Treasury bond is4.16%, the10-year is4.34%, and the30-year is4.89%. The longer the term, the higher the interest rate. This indicates that the market is still concerned about the demand for borrowing, inflation, and fiscal pressure in the US for the coming years.
Figure 1: On April 6, 2026, the yields on the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds remain above the short end
Before worrying about inflation, let's see how much the US needs to borrow
This round of rising interest rates is not only because everyone thinks the Federal Reserve will be slow to cut rates. There is a more direct reason: the US Treasury Department will continue to borrow a lot of money in the coming period.
The Treasury said in a notice onFebruary 2, 2026
That fromJanuary to March 2026, a net borrowing of574 billion dollars is expected, and fromApril to June another109 billion dollars will be borrowed. The more money borrowed, the more the market will be concerned about one question: with so many Treasury bonds, who will buy them and at what interest rate will they buy.
In the past, discussions about US Treasury bonds often first focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve. Now the order has changed a bit. Many people first look at how many bonds the Treasury will issue and then think about whether this will hold up interest rates. Because as long as a lot of bonds are issued and buyers are not as enthusiastic as imagined, it will be very difficult for interest rates to fall easily.
After long-term rates rise again, market volatility may not immediately end. For those accustomed to macro clues, it is more important to prepare the available execution channels in advance than to hastily switch when the market actually expands.
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Figure 2: Estimated net market borrowing remains high, supply pressure has not left the market's sight
What's more troubling is that buyers of US Treasury bonds are now more price-sensitive than before
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee mentioned in a report onFebruary 4, 2026 that according to current forecasts, by the2027 fiscal year, the US may need to continue increasing the issuance of long-term Treasury bonds. There is a point in the report that is easy to overlook: the buyers of US Treasury bonds have also changed over the years. In the past, some buyers were less sensitive to prices, whereas now the market has more investors who carefully calculate returns and select price levels. As a result, if the Treasury continues to issue a large amount of bonds, it becomes harder to borrow at low rates.
This is why long-term rates are harder to lower than short-term ones. Short-term Treasury bonds are more influenced by how the Federal Reserve will move rates next, while long-term bonds depend on whether overseas buyers are willing to buy, how well each auction goes, and whether investors are willing to hold them long-term. If these answers are not optimistic enough, the10-year and30-year rates will likely stay high.
Why when the 10-year rate hits 4.34%, the stock market and cryptocurrency sector also feel uncomfortable
The reasoning is not complicated. US Treasury bonds can be seen as the world's most important "floor interest rate." If the10-year Treasury bond yields4.34%, many funds will ask: why should I buy riskier and more volatile assets? Thus, as long as US Treasury bond rates are high, the stock market and especially those sectors relying on "future imagination" for valuation will face greater pressure.
This issue does not only affect the US. When US Treasury rates are high, many global funds are more willing to stay in dollar assets. Consequently, other markets may face higher financing costs, and exchange rates could come under pressure. Therefore, when US Treasury yields rise, it often becomes a matter that the global market must digest together.
Final summary
This round of increasing long-term Treasury rates is not based on a very complex trading model, but rather a simple fact: the US still needs to borrow a lot of money, and the market is more price-sensitive when buying bonds than before, making it difficult for long-term rates to decline.
As long as this situation does not change, the10-year and30-year US Treasury bonds will continue to put pressure on the stock market, the US dollar, and global assets.
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