Recently, the homework has become increasingly difficult to write. First of all, tomorrow is Good Friday and the US stock market will be closed, so today is the last trading day of the week. The next opening will be on Monday. My greatest hope is that Trump won't cause any trouble over the weekend, but I estimate that those who could have already done so. The next three weeks might still revolve around the Iran conflict. Today is also quite strange; oil prices have been rising sharply, but the US stock market has actually rebounded and may even close higher.
Although tomorrow is a holiday, the non-farm payroll data will still be released. Although the data is not extremely important, it still has some impact on the market. Based on the predicted data, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged, and as long as non-farm employment turns from negative last month to positive, that would be sufficient. I wouldn't dare to hope for too much. Although there is another interest rate meeting at the end of the month, the probability of no changes is still the highest. Many friends are worried about a rate hike, but it seems a bit early to think about that right now.
Recently, the war has intensified, and the price of US oil has gone above $110. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea may be restricted. Trump used to say it could be passed, but now it has changed to the US not relying on the Strait of Hormuz—whoever relies on it must handle it themselves. Speaking of which, there’s nothing wrong with that. Europe is having meetings today to discuss this. Currently, Iran is restricting the passage of the US and Israel, while other vessels should be able to pass if they pay. In this regard, Trump's announcement about the passage through the Strait of Hormuz may not be wrong.🤣
I estimate that Trump will regret this war and complain on the streets. What was initially a good situation is now stuck with Iran, and a bunch of other trivial matters are waiting for him ahead.
Looking back at the Bitcoin data, although the turnover rate has increased somewhat, it's not significant, and investor sentiment is relatively relaxed. Although prices have declined a bit, there is no obvious panic. The main sellers now are short-term investors, while some are gradually becoming long-term investors. Unfortunately, liquidity is indeed too poor, and the overall market sentiment is influenced by the war, with investors being quite cautious with their funds.
The next three days are a long weekend, and liquidity will be even worse. I hope Trump doesn't cause any trouble.
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