What to know : Grayscale said geopolitical risk, and a sharp oil shock, is delaying rate-cut expectations and keeping investors cautious. Crypto has held steady despite broader market stress, with modest inflows and rising derivatives activity signaling resilience. Grayscale sees potential upside once uncertainty clears, calling the current environment a possible entry point for long-term investors.
Crypto markets are stuck in a holding pattern as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cloud an otherwise improving macro backdrop, according to crypto asset manager Grayscale.
"The war in Iran overshadowed virtually all other market developments in March," the Grayscale research team said in a Wednesday report.
Before the conflict escalated, global growth appeared to be strengthening and central banks were leaning toward rate cuts. That outlook has been disrupted by a sharp rise in oil prices, which has fueled inflation concerns and pushed interest rate expectations higher, weighing on risk assets and keeping investors on the sidelines, the report said.
Since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, crypto markets have been volatile but broadly rangebound, with sharp headline-driven swings tied to oil prices and shifting risk sentiment. Bitcoin initially dropped into the mid-$60,000s on the first escalation, then rebounded toward the low-$70,000s before slipping back again as the conflict dragged on and macro conditions tightened.
More recently, renewed escalation has pushed bitcoin down roughly 10% from March highs, alongside declines in ether (ETH) and other tokens, as investors pulled back from risk assets. Despite the turbulence, performance has held up better than some traditional markets, with bitcoin roughly flat since the start of the war and even outperforming equities at times, underscoring both its sensitivity to macro shocks and its relative resilience.
For now, Grayscale expects many market participants to wait for greater clarity. If the conflict eases and energy prices retreat, markets could quickly reprice toward a more supportive macro environment. If not, persistently high oil prices may continue to pressure growth and delay a broader recovery.
Even so, crypto has shown notable resilience. Prices have held relatively steady through the volatility, suggesting a more durable bottom may be forming. The research team also pointed to continued inflows into spot crypto investment products and a pickup in futures positioning as signs that risk appetite is stabilizing beneath the surface.
Looking ahead, the report argued that the key catalyst for a sustained rebound will be a reduction in macro uncertainty. But it maintains that the long-term drivers of the asset class, including growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets, remain intact.
The stablecoin market has expanded rapidly in recent years, with total supply rising from about $20 billion in 2020 to more than $300 billion by 2025, and sitting around $315 billion, according to industry data.
The sector added roughly $100 billion in 2025 alone, reflecting renewed growth after a brief contraction, as demand for dollar-pegged digital assets surged across trading, payments and onchain finance.
Periods of heightened uncertainty like the current one have historically presented attractive opportunities for long-term investors positioning for the next phase of growth, the report added.
Read more: Bitcoin holds ground as gold, silver slide on ETF outflows and liquidity strains: JPMorgan
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