What to know : Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies fell after President Trump’s primetime address signaled a tougher stance toward Iran and offered no clear path to de-escalation. The speech reversed a short-lived global market rally, sending oil prices higher, stocks and futures lower, and reinforcing bitcoin’s recent pattern of reacting sharply to war headlines. Despite extreme fear in crypto sentiment gauges and bitcoin’s choppy trading range, some traders point to April’s historically strong performance and technical support near $60,000 as reasons for cautious optimism.
Bitcoin fell 2.2% to $66,609 on Wednesday, giving back Tuesday's gains after Trump's primetime address to the nation promised to hit Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks rather than offering the de-escalation markets had priced in.
Every major token in the top 10 dropped. Ether slid 2.2% to $2,056, BNB fell 3.9% to $591, XRP lost 2.5% to $1.31, and solana's SOL led losses at 5.2%, extending its weekly decline to 13%.
The selloff reversed a sharp global rally that had built through Tuesday on Trump's earlier comments that the war could end within weeks and that a deal with Tehran was not a prerequisite. Asian stocks had surged 4%. S&P 500 futures had jumped. The mood was the most optimistic since the conflict began five weeks ago.
Then the speech happened. In nearly 20 minutes, Trump did not outline any shift in Iran policy, did not provide specifics on how operations would proceed, and did not signal any pathway to a ceasefire.
The Strait of Hormuz, the critical oil shipping lane that has been effectively shut since mid-March, would reopen "naturally" once hostilities subside, he said, without offering a timeline.
Brent crude jumped 5% to above $106 a barrel. Asian shares fell 2.1%. U.S. and European equity futures dropped more than 1.2%. The dollar strengthened. Treasuries dropped on inflation concerns.
The crypto-specific picture is now familiar to the point of numbness. Bitcoin has spent five weeks bouncing between roughly $60,000 and $73,000, selling on every escalation headline, rallying on every de-escalation headline, and ending up roughly where it started.
The Fear and Greed Index sits at 8, deep in extreme fear territory, where it has been stuck between 8 and 14 for the past month.
There is a seasonal argument for optimism. April has historically been one of bitcoin's strongest months, finishing green 10 out of 15 years with an average gain of 20.9% versus an average decline of 8.8% in down years. Bitcoin also bounced firmly off its two-month uptrend support near $60,000 last week and is attempting to reclaim the 50-day moving average.
But seasonality doesn't trade against a war. The pattern of the past five weeks — hope, headline, reversal — shows no sign of breaking until the conflict itself does.
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