On March 26, 2026, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bensent released key signals in a public setting: in his view, the dollar is re-establishing its core position as a global safe-haven asset, while energy prices and inflation are expected to decline. This statement was quickly reiterated by several media outlets, and simultaneously, reports indicated that the dollar is strengthening and capital is accelerating its inflow into U.S. assets. Paradoxically, against the backdrop of the seemingly "increasingly tense situation in the Middle East," funds are concentrating towards what is seen as safer dollar assets, while high-volatility assets like Bitcoin are being forced to queue behind dollar assets, attempting to find their position in the new safe-haven narrative.
Strong Dollar: Capital Inflow and Cryptocurrencies
Bensent's speech was summarized by the media as a reaffirmation of the dollar's safe-haven status: amidst rising geopolitical uncertainties, the dollar is still regarded as the preferred risk-hedging tool for global funds. He also sent a subtle signal — there is a possibility of a future decline in energy prices and inflation. This statement did not provide specific projected figures but implied directionally: if inflationary pressures ease, the Federal Reserve may have opportunities to raise the real returns on the dollar again while maintaining nominal interest rates at high levels. For large funds seeking a balance between safety and returns, this reinforces the narrative of "returning to America," rather than weakening it.
In line with this stance, media reports have been highlighting that the dollar is appreciating, and capital is continuously flowing into U.S. assets. Whether it is U.S. Treasury bonds, high-grade credit assets, or the stock market, they are regaining global funds' favor. Before the high-interest-rate environment significantly shifts, dollar-denominated assets still hold an overwhelming appeal in terms of returns and safety for many institutions. When global capital is rebalancing, increasing the allocation to dollar assets often means reducing the weight of other risk assets, with the cryptocurrency market naturally being the first to bear the brunt.
When traditional safe-haven assets see an increase in yield, the squeeze on high-volatility assets like Bitcoin is particularly apparent. When risk-free or low-risk assets can provide relatively substantial nominal returns, market tolerance for the "digital gold" story decreases: any substantial pullback is magnified as an opportunity cost. The result of the capital diversion is an increase in the discount factor for Bitcoin's valuation, a reevaluation of the risk premium, and a narrowing of the price tolerance space.
On the trading front, a strong dollar often accompanies a stage of tightening global dollar liquidity. For the cryptocurrency market, this means increased difficulty for new capital to enter, high leverage costs remain, and in-market speculative games are intensifying, potentially compressing both transaction volumes and depth. Even if short-term volatility remains severe, the underlying structural liquidity is being slowly withdrawn, making it easier for both bulls and bears to be liquidated in a liquidity vacuum.
Powder Keg in the Strait of Hormuz and the Dollar
The new control system for the Strait of Hormuz implemented on March 13 has completed a full operational cycle over the past two weeks. According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and shipping professional media, currently, 26 vessels have passed under Iran's new regulations, involving passage code declarations and escort arrangements. On the surface, the shipping lanes are still operational, but behind that is a continuous rise in the pricing of geopolitical risks: rules are being rewritten, and the already fragile energy transport chain is being more tightly gripped by regional powers.
At the same time, reports from the Iranian Tasnim News Agency indicate that Iran claims military mobilization has exceeded 1 million combat personnel and has vowed to prepare for "suicidal resistance" against a possible U.S. invasion. This statement is not just emotional language but a strategic signal released to the outside: once the conflict escalates, the regional situation will quickly spiral out of control. Against this backdrop, energy supply uncertainty and rising shipping security premiums further elevate global demand for safe havens.
In stark contrast to the Middle Eastern tensions, Bensent and the U.S. government's implicit commitment to "the safety of U.S. assets" is evident. The dollar is depicted as a anchor amid global turmoil, while Treasury bonds and the U.S. financial system are packaged as "risk-off" islands. However, the reality is that America's deep engagement in Middle Eastern power plays means that its narrative of security is not absolutely isolated from geopolitical conflicts. The more financial markets are led to believe in the absolute safety of U.S. assets, the greater the impact of any unexpected events on this narrative.
In this contradictory landscape, geopolitical conflicts elevate global demand for safe havens, strengthening purchases and allocations towards the dollar; on the other hand, they also raise the overall risk premium, compressing tolerance for high-volatility assets. The dollar and Bitcoin play different roles within this context: the dollar is used to hedge systemic risks, serving as a "survival" tool, while Bitcoin appears more as an alternative bet in scenarios where fiat currencies and sovereign systems are called into question, serving as a "bet on the future." This division of roles determines that, in times of short-term panic, increasing the allocation to the dollar is generally prioritized over increasing Bitcoin, with the latter's opportunities often arising in longer cycles marked by prolonged conflicts and eroded institutional trust.
Trump's Pressure on the Fed: Verbal Warfare
As external geopolitical risks rise, internal policy contention within the U.S. has not ceased. Trump openly criticized the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, accusing the current interest rate policy of dragging down the economy and market performance, and declared that “we have an excellent newcomer about to take charge at the Federal Reserve.” This statement, as reported by the media, is interpreted as direct pressure on the independence of current monetary policy and foreshadows potential personnel and policy changes in the future.
The market's expectations for the future path of interest rates are thus oscillating between “longer and higher” and “delayed dovishness.” On one hand, as long as inflation has not been declared utterly defeated, maintaining a relatively tight monetary environment is seen as a necessary condition for controlling risks, supporting dollar interest rates and yield levels, thereby boosting U.S. assets; on the other hand, should economic data worsen or political pressures intensify, the possibility of the Fed being forced to accelerate a pivot towards easing is being reevaluated. This uncertainty directly affects the pricing of the dollar and risk assets: a strong dollar supports the risk-off narrative, but a potential dovish turn allows for imaginative space for subsequent risk asset rebounds.
Bensent's "dollar safety story" is not a monolithic view in light of this internal contest. The tug of war between fiscal expansion, electoral politics, and central bank independence determines whether the dollar can continue to serve as an irreplaceable safe haven. If the fiscal route continues to rely on high deficits, while monetary authorities face intense pressure from the administration, the market will eventually reassess the dollar's position between "currently high yields" and "medium to long-term credit and institutional risks." This very oscillation weakens the so-called illusion of absolute safety.
In the cryptocurrency market, this macro contradiction is transformed into a tug-of-war over "high rate suppression" versus "potential dovish benefits." Current high rates mean that the opportunity cost of holding risk-free assets is not low, and high-volatility assets like Bitcoin are more easily viewed as “can buy later.” However, whenever there are indications that the Fed might pivot, the market quickly simulates a “return of liquidity” scenario, viewing Bitcoin as the most elastic beneficiary. This expectation game causes the cryptocurrency market to endure the reality pressure of a strong dollar in the short-term, while continuously being suspended by the imagination of “future easing.”
Bitcoin Options' Major Pain Point at 75,000
Apart from the macro narrative, the derivatives market provides more concrete coordinates. According to data from Greeks.live, the current major pain point for the BTC options market is located near $75,000, which is the settlement zone most favorable to option sellers overall. Simultaneously, the put/call ratio is around 0.6, indicating that nominally, call positions still dominate, but defensive put positions are not low — the market is in a state of holding upward expectations but not daring to fully go long without protection.
The maximum option expiration date for the first quarter is approaching the next day, layering on top of the macro and political noise a technical time window. As large option positions face settlement, both bulls and bears have motives to engage in games around key price levels: shorts wish to suppress the current price towards the major pain point to squeeze out time value; longs attempt to hold or even raise the critical range to prevent a large number of call options from expiring worthless or triggering further emotional weakening. At this time, previously accumulated bearish sentiment may be amplified within the price structure.
The strong dollar narrative and macro uncertainty are indirectly reflecting on Bitcoin's risk appetite through these options positions. A put/call ratio below 1 suggests that bulls haven't retreated, but the demand for hedging through options is significant, implying an acknowledgment that the upside space is filled with a macro "ceiling." With every further strong dollar sentiment or delayed expected dovish turn, this could be quickly reflected in derivatives pricing as a jump in implied volatility and increased demand for deeply out-of-the-money puts — behind this is a reevaluation of tail risks by real capital.
During such a window period, capital behavior could evolve along several paths: one involves leveraging the price declines driven by macro panic and policy noise to buy at lower prices, through selling puts, gradually buying spot and long call options, betting on medium- to long-term hedging and institutional uncertainty narratives; another could be to exit in sync, clearing leveraged and short-term positions around large option expirations, shifting to cleaner dollar assets, waiting to reinvest after the macro dust settles. The interweaving of these dual capital behaviors often causes Bitcoin to experience "self-fulfilling" market movements with increased volume and volatility around key dates.
Reallocation of Safe-Haven Attributes: The Shadow of Gold
Within the traditional asset allocation framework, the dollar and gold constitute a classic safe-haven combination: one provides liquidity and nominal returns, while the other serves as an anchor against credit and institutional risks. Even in the current absence of complete data regarding the specific price levels of both, institutional and individual investors will still first seek safe-haven weighting within this pairing in their risk control models, and only then consider newer entrants like Bitcoin. This first-mover advantage naturally exerts competitive pressure on Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative.
As the dollar's safe-haven narrative strengthens, Bitcoin's role undergoes a subtle transformation: from being simply analogous to "digital gold," it gradually evolves into a high-elasticity safe-haven derivative. Its logic no longer directly competes for "margin of safety" with gold, but provides a layer of "second-order hedges" against institutional, capital control, and geopolitical order reconstruction scenarios for funds that have already established basic defenses in dollars and traditional safe-haven assets. This means that under extreme scenarios, Bitcoin may either be sold to obtain liquidity or earmarked as a bet against extreme institutional risks.
Against the backdrop of intertwined risks in the Middle East and U.S. internal political noise, institutional funds are increasingly stratified in allocation. At the top layer, there is an increase in allocation towards dollar assets and high-grade bonds to lock in liquidity and apparent safety; in the middle layer, weights of gold, energy, and other commodities are adjusted based on judgments regarding inflation and credit risks; the bottom layer has a small allocation towards high-volatility assets like Bitcoin, serving as tail insurance against extreme institutional and geopolitical restructuring scenarios. Within this structure, the direct inflow of Bitcoin as a safe haven is often limited in the short term, but its importance in extreme scenario planning is rising.
Thus, Bitcoin's safe-haven narrative appears to be suppressed in the short term by the dollar and traditional safe-haven combination, making its price more susceptible to weakness during periods of dollar strength. However, from a medium- to long-term perspective, it is precisely institutional instability and geopolitical tensions that erode the sense of absolute safety provided by a "single sovereign currency and financial system," giving decentralized assets like Bitcoin greater imaginative space. As long as such uncertainties persist, Bitcoin's position as a "systemically external asset" will be repeatedly reevaluated by the market.
The Myth of the Dollar in the Eye of the Storm and Next Scene for Cryptocurrencies
In summary, amidst Bensent's claims of the dollar re-establishing its safe-haven status, the dollar's appreciation and capital return to U.S. assets provide substantial pressure on the cryptocurrency market's liquidity and sentiment. Funds are prioritizing flows towards high-yield, perceived safe dollar assets, while Bitcoin faces multiple pressures of valuation discounting, diminishing trading volumes, and leverage liquidations within a high-interest-rate and strong dollar environment.
However, whether it is the passage of 26 vessels under the new controls in the Strait of Hormuz and the mobilization of over one million Iranian military personnel, or Trump's open pressure on the Federal Reserve, both remind the market: the narrative of "absolute safety" itself is filled with uncertainties. Amidst the intertwined geopolitical conflicts and internal policy struggles within the U.S., the dollar's status as a safe haven can be strengthened, but it may also be re-evaluated suddenly due to political and credit risks.
In the next quarter, the evolution of macro narratives, the significant expiration event of Bitcoin options near the major pain point of $75,000, and the fluctuations in expectations regarding the Fed's directions and personnel may collectively shape Bitcoin's price path and volatility structure. An unexpected geopolitical escalation, a market re-pricing of the Fed's pivot timeline, layered with the restructuring of positions following options expirations, could easily create an unexpected market scenario in the short term.
In such an environment, viewing any one party — whether it is the dollar, gold, or Bitcoin — as a sole safe haven means an oversimplification of complex realities. A more prudent approach is to dynamically assess the risk and return profiles of various assets under different scenarios, acknowledging uncertainty while continuously verifying data and official sources: Bensent's statements, Iran's military mobilization numbers, and Greeks.live's options data all require ongoing updates and cross-validation. Only then can investors differentiate between narrative and fact within the eye of the storm and make more rational decisions.
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