This article is solely a personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any actions taken based on this are at your own risk.

Since March, the price of BTC has fluctuated like a roller coaster.

When I wrote my article on the 7th of this month, I believed that the rebound on March 4th should have been the last bounce before another decline. However, unexpectedly, in mid-March, new highs were reached again. Although the rebound price did not exceed the judgment range from the previous article, the actual trend exceeded my personal expectations.

During a period in the early days of the war (from March 9 to March 17), BTC rose against the trend. It is possible that during this time, some funds located in the Middle East found it difficult to transfer physical assets (such as real estate and gold), so many illicit funds chose to transfer through BTC; otherwise, it is hard to explain why US stocks fell, gold fell, while BTC rose alone. Once this part of the money was transferred, BTC reverted to being a risky asset.

Based on recent trends, BTC is currently significantly influenced by external events. The difficulty of short-term trading has greatly increased. A single statement from Trump can send the global capital market into a frenzy, not to mention the small crypto market.

The most likely trend for the recent market is: most of the time in fluctuation, with very little time completing a rapid rise or fall through external stimuli.

The risk of war has not been resolved, but ships have begun to pass through the Strait one after another. We do not know when good news will arrive to stimulate another wave of rise. However, the war itself has not stopped, and the risk of escalation cannot be ruled out. Therefore, it is impossible to determine the short-term direction. But the endpoint can be anticipated. The peak of the rebound is likely still between 75,000 and 79,000. As for the decline, it seems that 55,000 will still be reached. However, the process will not be as smooth as the declines in November and January; combined with geopolitical disruptions, the trend may be extremely volatile and very taxing.

If positive news appears again, BTC may still experience a pulse-like rise. The current fluctuation range has expanded to 62,000 to 74,000, with an amplitude close to 20%. The current price of 71,000 is stagnant, whether going long or short is not a good position. Being close to the upper and lower bounds of the range is a relatively good trading opportunity.

For us ordinary people, we neither have information advantages nor computational power advantages (if you have advantages in these areas, the market is partially ineffective for you, and you can use your local advantages to make money).

Thus, for most of us, the candlestick chart is almost a completely effective market; everything is based on the candlestick chart. From the monthly K-chart below, it is still quite early for a monthly-level decline to hit bottom in terms of time; there is no rush to catch the bottom, and the intermediate rebound is merely a rebound, not a reversal. Even if there are good news regarding the easing of the war next month, it will only result in further short-term rebound stimulation, merely a continuation of the decline.

Another reminder is that it is highly discouraged to aggressively go long. Currently, the ratio of total contract open interest to BTC market capitalization is approximately 3.4%; 3.5% is already quite dangerous, and most ratios at high price points were around this area.

The Nasdaq has already shown a rounded top formation. Yesterday, the content of Trump's tweet did not pull the Nasdaq back above the resistance line. This indicates that yesterday's rebound may have only been an emotional rebound; the market needs more certain good news to achieve a turnaround. Yesterday, pre-market, gold saw a maximum drop of nearly 10%, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries approached 4.5%, suggesting potential signs of liquidity crisis. Thus, I tend to believe that Trump postponing for five days is merely to alleviate excessive panic in the capital market; his 48-hour ultimatum along with Iran's threat of reciprocal strikes on Gulf state civilian facilities have indeed placed tremendous psychological pressure on the entire capital market.

Postponing for five days only delays the attack on civilian facilities; normal military actions have not ceased. Therefore, it is premature to say that the situation has improved. As long as uncertainties exist, it is challenging for the capital market to significantly improve. Thus, the US stock market may continue to decline. The key is still to focus on the smoothness of the Strait and oil prices.

Follow me to maximize trend profits with minimal operations.  

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