Crypto Circle Academician: On 3.24, Bitcoin rose to 71,000 and then retreated. Is it an opportunity to get in or a trap to lure in? Latest market analysis and thought references
The current price of Bitcoin is 70,900. A private message exploded from 67,300 directly to 71,700, increasing more than 4% in one day. Many brothers came to ask me: Academician, is this going to reverse? Can we chase it? I directly put it this way: This wave is a combination of oversold recovery, short-seller liquidation, and news stimulation. It is not a trend reversal! Those who blindly chase high prices will most likely be buried at the summit!
The daily line is still within the bearish framework. The essence of this wave of rebound is obvious. The price has rebounded from the low of 59,800 and is currently touching the Fibonacci 0.786 resistance level below 74,011. It has not yet broken through the downward trend line since 75,998 and belongs to a technical repair after an oversold condition, fundamentally not breaking out of the larger bearish framework. The MACD green bars are narrowing, and the DIF is about to cross above the DEA, but it is still below the zero axis, indicating that the northward momentum is still building up and has not reached a strong breakout level. The K-line is above the MA20 and MA30 moving averages, but the MA60 line at 71,936 is pressing down from above. The moving averages are still in a southward arrangement and are not broken, so the large cycle still decides the direction downward.
The four-hour short-term surge is evident, and the small thoughts behind the short-term trend cannot be hidden. The K-line rapidly rose from 67,300 to 71,700. After breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, it quickly retreated and is now hovering around 71,000 to consolidate the bottom, which is a typical scenario of a rapid rise to lure in buyers followed by high-level distribution. After the MACD golden cross, the red bars increased, but the DIF just touched the zero axis; the northward momentum has already been exhausted, and the follow-up funds are lagging behind and may crash and pull back at any time. The upper range is below 72,000 and the lower range is 69,000. The longer the fluctuation occurs in this range, the lower the subsequent drop will be. Be sure to manage the risks.
Short-term thought reference: Follow the trend of the larger cycle, quick entry and exit with small stop losses
Accumulate northward in batches from 69,000 to 69,500, stop loss at 68,500, target at 71,000 to 71,500
Distribute southward in batches from 71,500 to 72,000, stop loss at 74,000, target at 70,000 to 69,500. If the price breaks below 69,500, continue to look down to 68,500 to 68,000
In the crypto circle, those who are foresighted eat meat, those who are late to realize have soup, and those who are unaware end up taking over the positions.
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