Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.42 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.4%, which is $1.41 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $316.9 billion, increasing by 0.47% over the last 7 days, with USDT comprising 58.1% of that.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have increased. Specifically, BTC decreased by 0.84% over the past 7 days, ETH increased by 1.8%, SOL rose by 0.18%, RIVER surged by 28.75%, and DEXE climbed by 46.04%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $91.8 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs was $59.8 million.
Market Forecast (March 23 - March 29) :
RSI index is 44.65 (neutral, down from last week), the fear and greed index is 10 (extreme fear), and the altcoin season index is 51 (neutral, up from last week).
BTC: $69,400-71,300 (range trading, consider buying if it breaks above $71,300)
ETH: $2,200-2,400 (watch for the risk of CME gap filling)
SOL: $85-92 (downside risk greater than upside)
Main Risks Facing the Market
Potential Bull Market Trap: Many institutions warn that the current rebound may be a "relief rally," caution against false breakthroughs leading to pullbacks.
Return of Inflation: The situation in the Middle East is driving up oil prices, which may strengthen expectations for "higher rates for longer."
Direction of the Bank of Japan: The possibility of raising interest rates around April can impact the crypto market if it resonates with the Fed's hawkish stance.
Understanding Now
Reviewing Major Events of the Week
Market volatility sees both bulls and bears get burned.
This week, the market experienced rollercoaster-like fluctuations. On March 17, driven by a short squeeze, Bitcoin briefly crossed $75,000, and Ethereum surged above $2,300, causing over 127,000 liquidations worldwide. However, the momentum did not last, and on March 18, the market quickly retraced, with Bitcoin falling below $73,000 and Ethereum dropping below $2,200. Market sentiment rapidly switched between "fear" and "extreme fear."
The SEC releases significant guidance on cryptocurrencies.
On March 17, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) released a key interpretive document, clearly categorizing cryptocurrencies into five types: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, stablecoins, and digital securities, emphasizing that federal securities law only applies to “digital securities.” On the same day, SEC Chair Gary Gensler proposed a "safe harbor" for crypto companies, aimed at providing a tailored funding route for startups, interpreted as a crucial step toward clear regulation of cryptocurrency in the U.S.
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, reigniting risk-averse sentiment in the crypto community.
On March 19, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it would maintain the interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75%. Following the announcement, BTC briefly fell below $70,000.
Divergence in fund flows for mainstream crypto ETFs, XRP shows resilience.
According to SoSoValue data, from March 18, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana spot ETFs recorded a total net outflow of nearly $220 million. However, the fund flow for Ripple (XRP) spot ETF remained stable, with a net inflow/outflow of zero on that day, showing strong resilience.
Top exchanges make large adjustments to trading pairs.
Major exchanges took significant actions this week. Coinbase suspended trading for more than 20 perpetual contracts, including MET and REZ, on March 16. Binance delisted multiple perpetual contracts like VFY, ALGO, and ATOM between March 17 and 18 and adjusted the deposit and withdrawal networks for tokens like NIL, COS, and DEGO.
Upbit delists Flow and Loopring.
South Korea's major exchange Upbit terminated trading support for Flow (FLOW) and Loopring (LRC) on March 16. Upbit noted that Loopring has issues concerning business authenticity and insufficient progress, which could lead to user losses.
"AI Super Bowl" GTC conference held.
The "AI Super Bowl," NVIDIA's GTC 2026 conference was held from March 16 to 19 in San Jose, California. As one of the most anticipated annual events in the AI field, the latest technological achievements released often have a profound impact on the convergence of AI and cryptocurrency sectors (like DePIN, AI agents, etc.).
Noble launches EVM mainnet based on Commonware.
The stablecoin infrastructure project Noble announced on March 18 that it has officially launched an EVM Layer 1 mainnet based on Commonware architecture, separating from the original Cosmos SDK chain. The new chain supports sub-second transaction finality, and with the native yield-generating stablecoin USDN as the core asset, expands into more financial scenarios.
Macroeconomics
On March 19, the Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% for the second consecutive time, in line with market expectations.
On March 19, the Bank of England maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.75%, consistent with market expectations, marking the second consecutive time of holding steady.
On March 19, the initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 14 were 205,000, the lowest since the week of January 10, below the expected 215,000, and previous value of 213,000.
On March 19, the Eurozone announced that as of March 19, the ECB deposit facility rate was 2%, as expected.
On March 19, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 100%.
The probability of the Fed cutting rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by June is 11.2%, with the probability of maintaining rates unchanged being 88.8%. By July, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 77.4%.
ETF
Statistics show that from March 16 to March 20, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $91.8 million; as of March 20, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.913 billion, currently holding $10.911 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $55.129 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $93.629 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $59.8 million.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Digital Asset Summit 2026 will be held in New York, USA, from March 24 to 26, 2026.
EthCC 9 will be held in Cannes, France, from March 30 to April 2, 2026. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events in Europe, focusing on technology and community development.
Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will take place in Hong Kong, China, from April 20 to 23, 2026.
Project Progress
Nillion's nilChain will cease operations on March 23, and users who still hold NIL tokens on Cosmos must migrate to Ethereum. After ceasing operations, users will no longer be able to perform standard transfer operations.
Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the U.S. SEC is expected to begin processing Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF application around March 23.
soonBase L3 network will officially shut down on March 26. The SOON mainnet and svmBNB will continue to operate, unaffected by this change. Users must withdraw assets from soonBase L3 before March 26; after that, any remaining assets on L3 will be transferred to a contract controlled by the team on Base for safekeeping.
Important Events
On March 26 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending March 21 (in thousands).
On March 27 at 22:00, the U.S. will announce the final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Token Unlocking
Soon (SOON) will unlock 21.85 million tokens on March 23, valued at about $3.06 million, accounting for 5.06% of the circulating supply.
Monad (MON) will unlock 170 million tokens on March 24, valued at approximately $3.93 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating supply.
Humanity (H) will unlock 105 million tokens on March 25, valued at about $10.43 million, accounting for 4.19% of the circulating supply.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on March 25, valued at around $9.47 million, accounting for 3.98% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research is the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for you. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column “Hot Coin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we pinpoint potential assets to lower trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also engage face-to-face with you through live streams, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate through cycles and seize the value opportunities of Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly recommend that investors engage in investment under a stringent risk management framework, ensuring that they fully understand these risks to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://lite.hotcoingex.cc/r/Hotcoinresearch
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
