Recently, a tech blogger I often follow shared a viewpoint in a private domain course:

If the invention of ChatGPT is like the "steam engine," then the invention of OpenClaw is like the "crankshaft."

This blogger frequently uses the examples of the steam engine and crankshaft when discussing the role of technological progress in advancing human society.

Although the invention of the steam engine was a significant breakthrough in the history of human technology, in reality, its use in human society did not become widespread and did not play a major role in advancing and promoting change in the first twenty years after its invention. It was another overlooked invention—the crankshaft—that truly enabled the steam engine to be scaled up and applied.

Only after the crankshaft was invented did human society begin to use the steam engine for automobiles, ships, and trains, applying it in various large-scale industries, ultimately allowing the steam engine to genuinely drive the progress and development of human society.

In the same way, the invention of ChatGPT is an important breakthrough in the history of AI development; however, its invention seems to be used and circulated only on a small scale, with the general public not sensing the existence of AI or the direct changes it brings. But OpenClaw could very well become a turning point in the field of AI, facilitating large-scale applications of AI.

There is an important distinction between OpenClaw and previous AI agents:

AI agents require interaction with humans at every step, and if they encounter a problem, they will stop.

But OpenClaw is different; it can attempt new methods through self-backtracking when it encounters issues. This makes it possible for the AI to complete tasks on its own without human intervention, clearing a key obstacle for large-scale applications of AI.

Of course, OpenClaw still has quite a few issues to resolve and needs a lot of refinement and evolution, but this trend is already very evident.

Furthermore, this blogger believes that if everything goes quickly, this year, with the promotion of OpenClaw's applications, we are likely to see disruptive applications aimed at a broad user base in the field of AI, so we must pay close attention to its development and subsequent changes.

After listening to this share, it made me think of another question:

What kind of companies will develop those truly disruptive applications aimed at a broad user base?

This is a question I have been pondering.

Why is this question so important?

Because it is closely related to investment, determining which companies we should focus our attention on when analyzing and monitoring various firms.

Since people's time, energy, and resources are always limited, we cannot spread our attention across all companies. If we try to grab everything, we will certainly end up grasping nothing.

In the past, when I shared the development history of blockchain, mobile internet, and internet ecology, I mentioned that after each new ecosystem emerges, most of the eventual giants within that ecosystem are newly emerging companies; the established players from past ecosystems rarely maintain their status in the first tier of the new ecology.

Few companies, like Tencent, which bridge internet and mobile internet and maintain dominance, exist.

I feel this pattern might continue to apply in the AI era.

In the AI era, although past giants (such as Microsoft, Google, Meta) are still pouring money into this field and fighting for territory, it currently appears that emerging giants are leading the direction.

In the field of large models, OpenAI and Anthropic are typical examples. In our country, DeepSeek has paved the way, and the most notable firms on the Hong Kong stock market, like Zhipu and MiniMax, are no exception.

Although Google's Gemini and Alibaba's Qianwen are currently competing with those giants and ranking high in various large model lists, I still feel that the top ultimate winners will likely remain the aforementioned ones.

Here, I want to specifically mention Google's Gemini. Its core technology actually also comes from its acquired company DeepMind, rather than from itself. So strictly speaking, Gemini is also a product of a new company.

In the application field, the recently spotlighted Manus and the newly emerging OpenClaw and Moltbook all originate from new companies.

If OpenClaw truly is the "crankshaft" of the AI era, then in the upcoming transformations, we are about to see the "automobiles," "ships," and "trains" of the AI era — and the creators of these may very well be a group of small, currently obscure teams and new companies.

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