What to know : Bitcoin hovered near $72,500 as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs logged about $155 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending a two-week run of roughly $1.47 billion in new allocations. On-chain data from Glassnode show buy-side momentum weakening, with realized profits down sharply and only about 57 percent of bitcoin supply in profit, a level historically linked to early bear market conditions. Despite fragile underlying demand and caveats about how ETF flows translate into spot buying, institutional inflows have stabilized and some investors increasingly view bitcoin as a 24/7, cross-border geopolitical hedge rather than just a risk asset.
Bitcoin remained bid Thursday amid signs of persistent demand for spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
The leading cryptocurrency traded near $72,500 on Thursday, according to CoinDesk market data. The U.S.-listed spot ETFs pulled in another $155 million in net inflows on Wednesday, extending a recent streak of institutional buying that has helped lift prices after weeks of sluggish activity.
The fresh inflows bring total allocations to roughly $1.47 billion over the past two weeks, according to data curated by SoSoValue, marking a sharp reversal after several weeks of withdrawals earlier this year.
Institutional demand through ETFs has begun to stabilize after a difficult start to the year. Investors have poured roughly $1.7 billion into U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs since Feb. 24, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data previously reported by CoinDesk, suggesting some investors are growing more comfortable that the market may have found at least a near term floor.
Earlier this week, analysts at Bitfinex cautioned that ETF inflows do not always translate into immediate buying pressure in the spot market. Authorized participants can create and short ETF shares before sourcing the underlying bitcoin, delaying the impact of those flows on price.
Still, the spot ETF inflows and bitcoin's recent resilience during geopolitical tensions indicates growing macro relevance of the cryptocurrency, according to some market participants.
“Bitcoin is increasingly being repriced by the market as a geopolitical hedge rather than just a risk asset,” said Livio Weng, CEO of Bitfire. “Unlike gold, bitcoin trades 24/7 and can move across borders instantly, which makes it a natural escape valve for capital during periods of geopolitical stress.”
On-chain data calls for caution
Despite the rebound in flows, underlying demand signals remain fragile, according to Glassnode. In a recent report, the firm said buy-side momentum has weakened significantly, with the 30-day moving average of realized profit falling about 63% since early February.
The share of bitcoin supply held in profit has also slipped to roughly 57%, a level historically associated with early stages of deeper bear market conditions. Glassnode added that the cost basis of short-term holders near $70,000 could act as a key behavioral ceiling, potentially turning rallies into distribution zones as traders exit positions near breakeven.
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