Global markets are recalibrating as geopolitical tensions reshape expectations for risk assets. Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are facing renewed pressure following the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, according to a March 2 market update by algorithmic trading firm Wintermute. The focus has shifted decisively toward how macro forces could define crypto’s next move.

The report emphasizes that the latest selloff is not driven by crypto-specific weakness but by shifting macro conditions. Underscoring that geopolitical escalation and energy shocks are now the dominant forces, the report notes:

“For crypto, this is macro-driven more than anything coin-specific.”

Bitcoin dropped to $63,000 before rebounding toward $67,000, yet the durability of that recovery remains uncertain. The energy channel is central to the outlook. “Sustained high oil prices could keep inflation stubborn just as central banks were hoping for cooling,” the commentary explained, warning that delayed rate cuts would leave crypto “at the wrong end of that trade.” Options markets are already reflecting this tension, with volatility pricing implying daily swings of 2.5% to 3%.

The near-term trajectory for bitcoin hinges on how long the conflict disrupts energy flows. If hostilities prove contained and the Strait of Hormuz reopens within weeks, the drawdown from all-time highs — roughly 45% — may position bitcoin for a recovery as risk appetite stabilizes, the firm detailed. Suggesting continued headwinds for high-beta assets, the update notes:

“If oil stays elevated and the Fed stays paralyzed, the rotation into hard assets, commodities, and value has further to run.”

Institutional participation has also thinned compared with the previous $85,000 to $95,000 range, reinforcing the fragile tone.

At the same time, a longer conflict could revive bitcoin’s alternative store-of-value thesis. “ BTC as digital gold has never fully delivered on that promise,” the report observes, but adds that prolonged instability could eventually shift capital flows. For now, forecasts remain guarded, with macro developments — particularly energy prices and Federal Reserve policy — likely to dictate crypto’s direction.

• Why did bitcoin fall after the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran?
  Rising oil prices and geopolitical escalation triggered a macro-driven sell-off in risk assets, including crypto.
• How do oil prices affect bitcoin and crypto markets?
  Sustained high energy costs can delay rate cuts and pressure liquidity, weighing on high-beta assets like bitcoin.
• What role is the Federal Reserve playing in crypto’s outlook?
  Expectations around delayed rate cuts are shaping risk appetite and driving volatility in bitcoin.
• Could bitcoin benefit from prolonged geopolitical instability?
  Extended conflict could eventually revive bitcoin’s digital gold narrative and attract alternative store-of-value flows.

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