Authors: Brayden Lindrea, Felix Ng

Translated by: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Introduction: This report quantifies the real scale of cryptocurrency as a channel for capital flight amid geopolitical crises with on-chain data—nearly 3 million dollars withdrawn within an hour after the airstrikes. But the other half of the story is equally noteworthy: the Iranian government immediately cut off internet access, sealing this escape route. The conclusions of Elliptic and TRM Labs contradict each other, allowing readers to judge for themselves.

The full text is as follows:

Minutes after the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Tehran on Saturday, there was a massive withdrawal frenzy at Iran's largest cryptocurrency exchange. However, the subsequent widespread internet blackout curtailed further outflows of funds.

Blockchain analytics firm Elliptic stated on Monday that the withdrawal volume on the Nobitex exchange surged by over 700% within minutes of the first round of airstrikes, exceeding $500,000. Charts showed that later that same day, the hourly withdrawal volume approached nearly $3 million at one point.

Elliptic indicated that the sharp rise in withdrawal volume "could represent funds fleeing Iran," with preliminary tracking showing significant amounts being transferred to overseas cryptocurrency exchanges.

"This allowed funds to exit Iran while evading some scrutiny from the global banking system," said Elliptic.

However, the withdrawal volume on Nobitex plummeted after Saturday. Another cryptocurrency forensics platform, TRM Labs, attributed this to strict internet cuts imposed by Iranian authorities.

TRM noted that shortly after the conflict erupted, Iran's internet connectivity dropped by about 99%.

TRM also disputed Elliptic's conclusion that "funds are fleeing Iran":

"Currently, the country's cryptocurrency ecosystem is not showing signs of acceleration or capital flight; on the contrary, as authorities forcibly implement strict internet blockades, both the number of transactions and trading volume are shrinking."

This outflow of cryptocurrency funds occurred against the backdrop of U.S. and Israeli efforts to overthrow the current Iranian regime and destroy its nuclear and missile programs. Iran subsequently retaliated with airstrikes on neighboring countries, further escalating regional turmoil.

Nobitex is the largest cryptocurrency exchange in Iran, handling about 87% of the country’s cryptocurrency trading volume. In 2025, its trading volume was about $7.2 billion, with over 11 million users.

Millions in Iran Affected by Recent Banking Crisis

Due to Iran's fragile banking system and extensive international sanctions, Iranians have long relied on cryptocurrency to store and transfer funds.

In October of last year, one of Iran's largest private banks, Ayandeh Bank, declared bankruptcy due to accumulating losses of $5.1 billion and liabilities approaching $3 billion, affecting over 42 million customers.

The Central Bank of Iran warned last year that eight other local banks would face dissolution risks if they did not implement reforms.

The Iranian cryptocurrency exchange itself has also faced frequent issues—Nobitex suffered an $81 million hack in June.