Author: Haotian, Amber Group Consultant

Recently, there have been rumors that @opinionlabsxyz is about to have its TGE. In fact, everyone knows that before the main narrative of the prediction market driven by @Polymarket forms a main upward wave, there will definitely be a "shadow war" related to the narrative of the prediction market.

The key is, after Polymarket maximizes Mindshare through "political games," how will the newcomers get a share of the pie? Today, I would like to share a few of my observations regarding Opinion:

1) Opinion has accumulated enough market presence, not only raising $20 million from Hack VC and Jump in its Pre-A round but also having expectations of becoming a leader in the BSC ecosystem prediction market, managing to achieve over $10 billion in transaction volume in just 60 days after its public testing.

The growth rate reflects not only the large funds voting in favor but also the market's expectation for its early entry into the prediction market;

2) Polymarket's success is backed by high-traffic, event-driven markets such as the U.S. presidential election, candidates for Fed Chairman, and whether a war will break out in Iran. Opinion must find another path.

It chose to construct a set of "prediction primitives," focusing not just on the binary outcome of whether options exist, but on real-time pricing of "probability fluctuations" throughout the entire process before expectations materialize.

For example, the Pre-token Generation Events that Opinion focuses on directly transformed many projects into tradable on-chain assets while they were still information black boxes, thus achieving pricing of expectations and forming a soft landing for primary market projects before their launch. This ability to turn "vague expectations" into "real liquidity" is the key for Opinion to position itself in the eyes of crypto-native players. Similar to many previous projects attempting to change the token issuance model to price in the Bounding Curve, but Opinion's method will be more direct;

3) In the past, opening a prediction market required manual review and setting settlement conditions. Opinion has achieved "instant opening" through AI oracles. Its significance lies in making the assetization of expectations sufficiently automated.

This means it can carry macro narratives while also drilling down into micro domains. For example, the TVL fluctuations of a DeFi protocol or the floor price expectations of an NFT series can instantly become a tradable market.

This high frequency and extremely low friction costs allow it to cover a large number of crypto-native topics and macro indicators with 24/7 volatility that Polymarket cannot accommodate.

4) Data shows that the average transaction size on Opinion exceeds $2,500, clearly indicating that it’s not just retail investors engaging in small bets; there are evidently institutional demands using its high liquidity for hedging trades in the prediction market.

There are certainly many orders aimed at earning $OPN points, but leaving aside those wash trades, if a platform has a significant proportion of institutional and arbitrage users, it actually indirectly verifies its underlying infrastructure's "carrying capacity."

Enabling large funds to conduct precise hedging in the prediction market like derivatives, rather than just retail-level "gambling," is indeed the goal that the future prediction market 2.0 should aim for. To achieve this, the responsiveness of the AI oracle, liquidity depth, settlement logic, etc., will all become critical tests; that's all.

The prediction market will undoubtedly be triggered and attract a vast number of off-exchange incremental users thanks to Polymarket, but Opinion's approach is to define a "protocol layer" logic for global probability financial infrastructure, which is very crypto-native and will certainly be more friendly to the crypto-native market in the short term. But it also means that its real value and potential need to be observed after the TGE performance, NFA, and wait for the changes.

Related Reading: Primitive Ventures: The "East-West Differentiation" of Prediction Markets, Why We Bet on Opinion Labs?

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