UBS Chief Investment Office (CIO) published a daily update titled “US-Iran escalation adds to geopolitical risks” on March 2. CIO is dedicated to serving the bank’s wealth management financial advisors and their clients with market analysis and actionable insights.

The report highlights that market volatility has increased after the United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes on Iran on Feb. 28, triggering missile exchanges across the region, airspace disruptions in the Gulf, and sharp moves in oil, gold, and equities. President Donald Trump warned the attacks “will continue, uninterrupted through the week or, as long as necessary,” while signaling openness to potential talks with new Iranian leadership. Brent crude briefly rose above USD 82 per barrel before easing near USD 78.6, gold approached record levels, and equity futures pointed lower as investors reassessed risk exposure.

UBS Chief Investment Office wrote:

“Our base case remains that there will be only a brief disruption to the global supply of energy.”

“We expect any initial rise in the price of oil to reverse, at least partially, once it becomes clear that supply disruptions are temporary, critical oil infrastructure is not destroyed, and the need for continued military action fades,” the report adds. “In this scenario, markets may be volatile over the coming weeks but would likely thereafter start to refocus on positive global economic fundamentals. This would be in line with the impact of most geopolitical shocks in recent history.”

UBS added, “Nevertheless, the commencement of strikes does increase the probability of our downside scenario in which a sustained disruption to energy supplies begins to have a bigger impact on the global economy and markets. Such negative outcomes followed the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and following the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022.” They further noted, “Our base case is that Iran would not be able to disrupt the flow of energy for a sustained period, given the degradation of the country’s military capacity, the heavy US military presence in the region, and their own need to export,” while cautioning that “the risk of a more sustained and disruptive conflict remains a possibility.”

On asset allocation, the firm stated:

“We see further upside for broad commodities in 2026, driven primarily by our positive outlook for metals.”

The bank also emphasized diversification benefits, writing, “We also believe a modest allocation to gold, of up to a mid-single-digit percentage of total assets, can enhance diversification and buffer against geopolitical risks.” UBS estimates that a 10% rise in gasoline prices would lift headline U.S. PCE inflation by about 0.2 percentage point initially, with limited impact on core inflation, and assesses that oil-importing regions such as Europe and Asia would face greater exposure than the United States. Historically, geopolitical shocks have tended to weigh on markets only temporarily unless they evolve into broader economic disruptions, reinforcing the case for diversified portfolios across equities, commodities, fixed income, currencies, and alternatives.

• How does UBS expect oil prices to react to the US-Iran conflict?
  UBS expects any initial spike in oil prices to partially reverse if supply disruptions prove temporary.
• Why is UBS recommending commodities exposure now?
  UBS sees further upside in broad commodities, particularly metals, and views them as a hedge against geopolitical risk.
• What role does gold play in UBS’s portfolio strategy?
  UBS believes a modest allocation to gold can enhance diversification and buffer portfolios during geopolitical shocks.
• Which regions face the greatest economic risk from higher oil prices?
  Oil-importing regions such as Europe and Asia are viewed as more exposed than the United States.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。