Original Title: "Accurate Entry in the First 71 Minutes! Six Mysterious Accounts Bet on U.S. Airstrikes Against Iran, Earning $1.2 Million, Trump Campaign Plunged into 'Insider Trading Suspicion'"
Original Author: Dong Jing, Wall Street Journal
The news of the U.S. military strikes against Iran has shaken global markets, but before the explosions began, there were already quiet bets being placed in the prediction markets.
According to a recent disclosure from blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps, six suspicious insider accounts on the Polymarket platform concentrated bets on "yes" a few hours before the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, totaling approximately $1.2 million in profits. All these accounts were registered in February, with most wallets completing deposits only within 24 hours before the attacks, and there were no other transaction records apart from the aforementioned bets.
This incident has sparked strong attention in the market regarding regulatory loopholes in prediction platforms. Meanwhile, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) just issued a warning last week concerning insider trading issues in prediction markets, indicating rising regulatory pressure.
According to an article from Wall Street Journal, the U.S. and Israel launched a massive joint military strike against Iran on February 28. According to CCTV News, Trump posted a video on the "Truth Social" platform that day, confirming that the U.S. military had launched "significant military operations" against Iran, and he addressed Tehran, saying, "After the operations are over, we will take over your government."
After the news broke, the price of Bitcoin fell, while oil futures on the Hyperliquid platform rose due to expectations of escalated regional conflicts. The trading volume in this derivatives market approached $90 million on February 28, and since last December, the cumulative trading volume of contracts related to the date of U.S. strikes against Iran has exceeded $529 million, reflecting the market's high attention to this geopolitical event.
Six Accounts Accurately Bet, Making $1.2 Million
According to an analysis report released by Bubblemaps on the social platform X, the six Polymarket accounts concentrated their purchases on the contract market of "Will the U.S. strike Iran before February 28, 2026" buying "yes" shares, making a total profit of about $1.2 million after the market settled at $1.
One of the accounts bought over 560,000 "yes" shares at about $0.108 each, ultimately profiting nearly $560,000; another account bought nearly 150,000 shares at $0.20, similarly recording a six-figure profit.
The visual map released by Bubblemaps shows clear connections among the six wallets, with highly similar funding sources.
The aforementioned accounts were all created in February, and most completed their first deposits within 24 hours before the attacks, with no other trading activities recorded in the accounts' histories apart from this bet. This behavioral pattern highly resembles typical insider trading characteristics.
Additionally, according to a post by Mike Levin on the social platform X, among the six accounts, one named "Magamyman" made a profit of $515,000 in a single day, with its first trade occurring 71 minutes before the news coverage became public.
At that time, the probability pricing in the market for U.S. strikes against Iran was only 17%. The account entered the market with about $87,000, raking in more than $500,000 overnight.
Notably, Mike Levin also pointed out in his post that Donald Trump Jr. is currently a member of the Polymarket advisory board, and his company invested tens of millions of dollars into the platform last year.
Moreover, both the U.S. Department of Justice and CFTC had previously launched investigations into Polymarket, but these investigations were withdrawn after Trump took office. He called on relevant parties to provide explanations regarding this matter and push for transparency and regulatory follow-up.
Regulatory Pressure Intensifies, Insider Trading Issues in Prediction Markets Surface
As this incident occurred, U.S. regulatory agencies are increasing scrutiny on insider trading behaviors in prediction markets.
Kalshi, a competitor platform to Polymarket, announced this week that it has suspended and penalized two users suspected of insider trading, one of whom is a visual effects editor for MrBeast's show "Beast Games," accused of trading on non-public information related to the show's results, receiving a two-year ban and fines exceeding $20,000; another case involves a political candidate betting on a contract related to his own election.
Kalshi stated that it has investigated approximately 200 cases, with over ten cases remaining in active investigation stages.
The CFTC subsequently issued a notice warning that insider trading on event contracts may violate U.S. law, with Chairman Mike Selig positioning the trading market as the "first line of defense."
At the same time, insider trading issues on the Polymarket platform are not new. Blockchain investigator ZachXBT teased last week that he would release an investigative report on a certain crypto platform, which immediately sparked market speculation and led to the creation of a Polymarket contract betting on "which company will be named."
According to Lookonchain, there were 12 wallets that had heavily bet on Axiom before the results of the investigation were announced, with employees of the company accused of trading on non-public information.
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