Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | jk
On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel jointly launched a massive military strike against Iran. The operation aimed to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile systems, and military leadership, and publicly declared an intention to overthrow the current Iranian regime. Airstrikes covered cities including Tehran and Isfahan, with reports claiming that Supreme Leader Khamenei is dead, and at least 200 people have died in Iran.
Iran immediately launched a large-scale retaliation, firing missiles and drones at Israel and seven Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE, and announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The iconic Palm Island in Dubai caught fire due to missile interception debris, and evacuations were ordered at the Burj Khalifa, while multiple Middle Eastern countries closed their airspace. Reports indicate that Khamenei and the Iranian president have both been moved to secure locations. The EU, Oman, and other nations called for restraint as the international community widely feared the conflict would escalate into a full-scale regional war.
Background: Long-standing Grievances Explode
Since late December 2025, Iran has witnessed the largest nationwide wave of protests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The catalyst for the protests has been the ongoing collapse of the Iranian rial and the worsening economic crisis, with demonstrations rapidly spreading to over a hundred cities, and some citizens openly calling for the overthrow of the current regime. The Iranian government responded with violent repression, with estimates of fatalities ranging from 3,000 to 32,000, showcasing significant disparities.
At the same time, tensions between the U.S. and Iran have been escalating diplomatically. On January 2026, U.S. President Trump publicly supported the Iranian protesters and announced the deployment of a large naval force to the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers. On February 6, U.S. and Iranian representatives held indirect nuclear negotiations in Muscat, Oman. However, just hours before the attack occurred, the Omani foreign minister stated that significant progress had been made in the negotiations.
On February 24, Trump accused Iran during a State of the Union address of "restarting its nuclear weapons program" and claimed that Iran was developing long-range missiles that threaten the U.S. homeland, warning that the U.S. would take action if necessary. It is reported that Israel's operation had been secretly planned for months, with the specific date of the attack confirmed weeks in advance, and Iran's negotiating parties were not notified beforehand.
The U.S. and Israel Launch Large-scale Airstrikes
On February 28, 2026 (Saturday) local time in the morning, Israel and the United States jointly launched a massive military strike against Iran. Israel named the operation “Operation Roaring Lion,” while the U.S. Department of Defense referred to it as “Operation Epic Fury.” The attack took place on the first day of the Iranian workweek, with millions of Iranian citizens encountering airstrikes while commuting to work or taking their children to school.
The airstrike targets spanned multiple cities, including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, Karaj, and Kermanshah. The U.S. focused on Iranian ballistic missile facilities and nuclear program-related targets while Israel directed its strikes at Iran's military and political leadership. Reports indicated that the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was directly hit by seven missiles at his residence in Tehran, with satellite images showing significant destruction to the complex. Israeli military officials stated that several high-ranking Iranian officials had been killed in the first round of strikes, but final confirmation is still pending.
Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated that Khamenei and President Raeisi have been safely relocated to a secret location and are currently out of danger. However, according to senior Israeli officials, “Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in Israel's airstrikes against Iran,” while Reuters reported that Khamenei’s body had been found. As of the time of publication, both parties are asserting conflicting claims.
Trump announced in an eight-minute video on Truth Social that the U.S. has undertaken "significant military operations" against Iran, with the goals of "eliminating the direct threat to the American people from the Iranian regime," "destroying Iran's missile industry," and declared intentions to "completely eliminate" Iran's navy. He also addressed members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, calling on them to lay down their weapons in exchange for "full immunity." Trump further addressed the Iranian citizens, stating: “Your moment of freedom has arrived… After we are done, take over your government; it will belong to you. This may be your only chance in generations.”
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that the joint strike operation will continue for "as long as necessary." Unlike the limited strikes in June 2025, this operation is expected to last for several days. Iranian state media, citing Red Cross data, reported that at least 201 people have died in attacks across 24 provinces as of the report's publication.
Iran Launches Full-scale Retaliation, Multiple Middle Eastern Countries Affected
In retaliation, Iran launched a large number of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel and several Arab countries hosting U.S. military bases. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard stated that “all Israeli and U.S. military targets in the Middle East have been strongly hit by Iranian missiles," declaring that "the operations will continue until the enemy is thoroughly defeated."
In Israel's direction, air raid sirens sounded in multiple locations, with the northern region reporting explosions. The Israeli “Iron Dome” defense system intercepted incoming missiles over Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
In the Persian Gulf region, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE confirmed missiles hit their territories, while Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and Qatar reported successful interception of incoming missiles. The Bahrain government confirmed that the location of the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet Command in Manama was struck by missiles and condemned this act as “a blatant violation of Bahrain's sovereignty.” An Iranian drone hit a residential building near the capital of Bahrain, with footage showing the building engulfed in flames.
The traces left by the defense systems and penetrating missiles over Israel. Source: AFP
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard also fired missiles at the Udeid Air Base in Qatar. At the same time, the Houthi forces in Yemen announced they would resume attack operations against the Red Sea. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, and the Revolutionary Guards announced through radio broadcasts that all ships are prohibited from passing. The airspace over the Middle East was subsequently paralyzed, with countries including Iran, Israel, Iraq, the UAE, Jordan, and Qatar closing their airspace, resulting in a cancellation of approximately 24% of flights in the Middle East direction.
Dubai's Palm Island Hit by Missile Debris, Burj Khalifa Evacuated
In Iran's comprehensive retaliatory operation, the iconic landmark in Dubai, Palm Jumeirah, became the focus of global attention. Although Palm Jumeirah was not directly hit by an Iranian missile, after the UAE's air defense system successfully intercepted the missile in the neighboring waters of Palm Island, the debris from the destroyed missile immediately fell into the Palm Island area, igniting a building in the five-star Fairmont The Palm hotel.
Witnesses described the scene as highly chaotic, with thick black smoke rising from the direction of the hotel, and multiple ambulances speeding toward the scene. Several Chinese individuals on social media platforms recorded the scene.
The struck hotel. Source: X
Earlier that day, the world's tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, was evacuated due to safety concerns. Residents in Abu Dhabi received emergency alerts on their phones, advising them to stay away from windows and immediately seek shelter in safe locations, as the U.S. Al Dhafra Air Base is located within the city and had become a primary target for Iranian strikes. The UAE Ministry of Defense announced that the air defense systems had successfully intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones "with high efficiency," condemning such attacks as “a blatant violation of national sovereignty and international law.”
Polymarket Probabilities Skyrocket, Bets Exceed Thirty Million Dollars
The outbreak of this military action left an exceptionally rare historical trend in the prediction market. Several related markets on Polymarket experienced a vertical surge immediately after the airstrikes occurred, with the price curves nearly forming a straight line toward the top.
In the market of “Will Khamenei step down as Supreme Leader before March 31?”, the probability jumped from the previously stagnant range of about 20% to 30% to 95% following today's airstrikes, with a single-day increase of as much as 87 percentage points, and a total trading volume of $29.31 million, indicating that significant capital has rushed in to bet on a regime change following the news of the airstrikes.
Another longer-term market, “Will the Iranian regime fall before June 30?” also showed dramatic fluctuations, with probabilities soaring from about 16% to 55%, reflecting a single-day increase of 39 percentage points, with a trading volume of $2.37 million.
Screenshot of the Polymarket market. Source: Polymarket
Meanwhile, the market probability related to “Will the U.S. strike Iran?” has risen to 100% and has entered a settlement process, as short positions betting that strikes would not happen have entirely collapsed.
Odaily Planet Daily will continue to track the latest developments and provide timely reports.
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