Bitcoin fluctuated and rose during yesterday's trading session. In the evening, a significant rise in the U.S. stock market propelled Bitcoin to continue its upward trend, reaching the 70,000 mark in the early hours of today, successfully recovering nearly half a month's decline. However, Bitcoin quickly fell back, hitting a low of 67,500 in the morning, and is currently stabilizing around 68,000. Ethereum's performance is similar to that of Bitcoin; after breaking the 2,000 mark last night, it accelerated to 2,150 in the early hours today, successfully making up for nearly half a month's decline, followed by a pullback, and the current price is stabilizing around 2,050.
From a macro perspective, market sentiment has eased to some extent. The U.S. President's State of the Union address was relatively moderate, not bringing new shocks to the market. Additionally, the strong performance of U.S. tech stocks and the weakening of the dollar also provided support for the crypto market. The cryptocurrency market has experienced a short-term "relief bounce," recovering the previous decline. Market sentiment is gradually warming up, but still faces certain adjustment pressures, especially under the guidance of macroeconomic data and statements from the Federal Reserve, where uncertainties in the market still persist.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's previous decline touched the lower bound of the daily chart, gaining support and initiating a rebound; it has now returned to the midline area. The four-hour chart shows that after the price rebounded, it reached the upper bound, and this position is expected to form some technical resistance. In addition, the RSI indicator has entered the oversold area and is starting to turn around, while the MACD on the hourly level is also showing increased bearish strength. Therefore, in the short term, Bitcoin's price may face the risk of a pullback for correction. The current short-term support level is in the midline area of 66,000 on the four-hour chart, as well as around the lower bound of 65,000 on the hourly chart. If these support levels are breached, it may trigger a deeper correction. The short-term resistance to watch is the upper bound ranging from 69,000 to 70,000; if these areas are broken, Bitcoin is expected to strengthen further.
Similar to Bitcoin, although Ethereum's rebound is strong, its technical aspect also faces upward resistance. The daily chart shows that after the price rose to the upper bound around 2,150, it encountered some pressure and is currently undergoing a correction. In the short term, Ethereum's support level is concentrated around the midline of 2,000; if this area can hold as support, the price is expected to continue challenging higher levels. If it fails to hold the 2,000 support, a further pullback may occur, retesting the lower support level of 1,900.
Today, the focus of the market will be on the reversal and recovery efforts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, as well as the speeches from senior Federal Reserve officials and the initial jobless claims data that may bring market volatility. If the economic data falls short of expectations or the comments from the Federal Reserve are hawkish, it may impact market sentiment and further increase the risk of corrective pullbacks.
In summary, both Bitcoin and Ethereum remain in the stage of corrective rebound in the short term, with technical aspects and macro environment influencing market trends. As market sentiment warms up, crypto assets are expected to rebound further, but attention should still be paid to the potential impact of changes in macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve policies on the market.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jane Crypto (follow in real-time on WeChat public account: Jane Crypto), representing personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's push, the above views or suggestions are not real-time and are for reference only; for more real-time guidance, please contact me!
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