Markets opened the week on edge, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq sliding roughly 1.5% and bitcoin dropping to an intraday low of $62,500 on Tuesday, as renewed tariff tensions and geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment. Gold, meanwhile, climbed above $5,200, reinforcing its haven appeal.
During the TDLR interview, Soloway told Lin that the stock market’s recent sideways movement masks what he views as institutional distribution. “For the last few months, I’ve been bearish on the stock market, mainly because the charts have been telling me that there is downside,” he said, pointing to narrowing price action that often precedes broader declines.
His near-term target for the S&P 500 sits around 6,100, roughly 10% below current levels, with the potential for a deeper slide toward 5,600 over time. Even more sobering, Soloway floated the possibility that U.S. equities could resemble Japan’s post-1980s peak experience.
“We may not see new all-time highs in the stock market for literally 20 plus years,” he warned, adding that retirement planning assumptions built on steady equity gains may prove overly optimistic. Soloway’s statements come as artificial intelligence (AI) disruption has rattled the market.
Oil, however, remains one of his favored trades. After entering near $55 per barrel late last year, Soloway said he remains bullish despite taking partial profits. He cited the waning U.S. shale boom and geopolitical tensions as supportive factors, with $100 oil within reach over the next couple of years.
On bitcoin, Soloway struck a notably different tone than his prior thesis at the start of 2024, which turned out to be wrong. While he expects the broader bear cycle to persist, he sees a powerful short-term setup driven by extreme pessimism and technical support near the 2021 breakout zone.
“I’m unbelievably bullish on bitcoin here,” he explained during the interview with Lin, citing a bullish inside-bar pattern and deeply negative sentiment readings as contrarian signals. He anticipates a relief rally toward $80,000 to $85,000, potentially delivering gains of 20% to 30% before another leg lower.
Longer term, he still expects bitcoin to eventually dip below $50,000, but views the current setup as an opportunity for swing traders willing to act on probability rather than narrative.
Gold continues to benefit from uncertainty surrounding tariffs, inflation and U.S. fiscal stability. Soloway sees upside toward $5,400 in the near term, though he is not aggressively adding at current levels. Silver, by contrast, remains trapped in what he described as a bearish range, with major support significantly lower.
On the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, Soloway acknowledged growing global diversification away from dollar-denominated assets. He pointed to declining foreign participation in Treasury markets and a long-term trendline in the dollar that, if broken, could signal structural weakness rather than a fleeting correction.
For retirement planning, Soloway emphasized diversification across metals, bitcoin, and select dividend-paying equities. With inflation eroding purchasing power over decades, he argued that a modest 3% to 5% annual return may be sufficient to preserve wealth going forward, though unlikely to generate outsized gains.
His broader message: focus on probability, respect technical signals, and abandon the assumption that the stock market will reliably deliver double-digit annual returns in the years ahead.
- What is Gareth Soloway’s outlook for the stock market?
He expects a continued downtrend with potential declines toward 6,100 and possibly 5,600 on the S&P 500. - Why is Soloway bullish on bitcoin short term?
He cites extreme bearish sentiment and a bullish chart pattern that could trigger a relief rally toward $80,000 to $85,000. - What is his view on oil prices?
Soloway remains bullish, warning that oil could reach $100 per barrel within the next couple of years. - How does he suggest preparing for retirement?
He recommends diversification across metals, bitcoin and dividend-paying stocks to preserve purchasing power.
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