The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is crowded, all for profit! Hello everyone, I am your friend Old Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to relay the most valuable information about the cryptocurrency market to all coin friends. I welcome the attention and likes from all coin friends, and reject any market smokescreens!
BTC has always struggled to break through the 70,000 mark, and currently, even reaching 69,000 is very difficult. This critical point is of great importance to Old Cui; in terms of the crypto circle, during last year’s review, Old Cui mentioned that President Trump’s tenure might create the last wave of significant growth in the crypto space. The current phase of the bull market may have already generated a main upward wave in phases 24-25. This wave of trend is the easiest to predict and the easiest to profit from, while the current trend, even incorporating future trends, is becoming increasingly difficult to decipher. Frankly speaking, the crypto circle at this stage is becoming more formalized, with the backing capital almost overlapping with traditional financial giants, making our competitors stronger. It's no longer the era when Grayscale dominated the world. Therefore, we must also innovate our strategies. Everyone can think from a different perspective; if last year's giants were still second-tier investors like Grayscale, during the interest rate cut phase, they would not experience a downturn as there wouldn’t be much leverage to control the market.
As time passes, financial markets are interconnected. If you look at gold, the same applies; basically, the users Old Cui has are exceedingly diverse, including gold investors, Old A, and even U.S. stocks. Among last year's overall gains, Old Cui has a clear understanding of various markets. The users with the highest returns mostly came from U.S. stocks, followed by gold, and Old A's returns also surpassed those of the crypto market. This is the current situation and a fact. Under these returns, how will you, as investors, choose to invest? Fortunately, the old year has passed, and in the new year, Old Cui still has great confidence in the crypto circle. How much further can the continuous decline go? Compared to traditional financial industries, the downsides of the crypto space can indeed be magnified infinitely. How can you demand a market that has been around for less than a few decades to compete with markets that are over a hundred years old? This line of thought is very extreme; we need to give it time to grow.
Influenced by Buffett, many friends look at the crypto circle through the lens of value, always thinking that the cryptocurrency market resembles fraud, holding no value. Previously, I mentioned that channels are where value lies; it is also a matter of consensus. For example, the gold market is inherently a classification of precious metals; due to its scarcity, all consensus supports it, making its value enormous. The emergence of Bitcoin was also intended to replace it because of its convenience, non-replicability, and scarcity—these are qualities that existing currencies cannot achieve, hence its value skyrocketed. Back in the real world, you should have heard of the concept of everything on the blockchain and everything interconnected; that chain is blockchain. The so-called everything on-chain previously relied more on the Ethereum network due to its stability and the absence of downtime incidents. Perhaps in the future, household appliances like televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, and dryers will be on-chain; that is value.
Why do companies promote these appliances being on-chain? The greatest value currently is that companies can regulate them directly. The entire industry chain, starting from production, remains under controllable limits. In the future, with supportive technology, once you purchase an appliance, you can utilize blockchain technology to trace the entire production process. For companies, the biggest assurance is anti-counterfeiting, allowing the realization of direct sales from manufacturers. This aligns with the WEB3 theory; in the future, there may not be intermediaries to profit from price differences, only direct transactions between buyers and sellers. However, this concept has deviated when applied to the crypto circle. The notion of a platform does not exist in the creation of blockchain technology. It was only with the need for platform promotion in the early stages that the concept of a platform was introduced; after studying Satoshi Nakamoto's theoretical framework a few years ago, Old Cui recognized the real value of the crypto circle; he is indeed a genius.
It is not just a technical aspect; it also deeply understands human nature. Only when there are interests in place does market promotion occur. Therefore, for all investors, if you are investing in the cryptocurrency market, you should not only focus on digital currencies as targets. You must know whether the technology behind this token can be realized. For instance, the previously popular metaverse concept—didn't META also fail? Having technology does not meet the concept of everything interconnected; hence, SOL links emerged. If SOL links can achieve stability, perhaps the emergence of SOL could realize the concept of the metaverse, but perhaps the founders of SOL did not focus on this track; or perhaps the technology of SOL itself is extreme, unable to prioritize both speed and stability, making it a double-edged sword. Currently, the only available link that can achieve this concept is Ethereum. According to Ethereum's theories, Zuckerberg has already failed; we will see who else can push this path forward.
Once again, I remind everyone, the failure of the metaverse is not a conceptual issue but a real technological problem. Many outsiders believe the metaverse concept has failed entirely; they see it as a money-grabbing system. Zuckerberg's investment was real and not just a gimmick. In reality, AR and holographic projections cannot eradicate weight issues or specific locations. Such problems remain unresolved, rendering it in a state of non-popularity. For the concept, it cannot engage ordinary people, hence failing to control costs. Identifying these tracks means that confidence will not diminish in the crypto circle. Only Bitcoin cannot be measured by value because, among all technologies, it is impossible to use Bitcoin as a channel. Its technology and concepts, under current conditions, Old Cui also thinks are somewhat outdated. The introduction of DEFI was initiated by the trial of Ethereum. Bitcoin's current advantage is that it has greater consensus and a higher degree of decentralization compared to other coins. Subsequent cryptocurrencies are more dependent on the involvement of giants, while Bitcoin does not require too much investment; it is more like gold, with support from scarcity and consensus, lacking significant practical application value but cannot be deemed completely worthless.
Old Cui summarizes: Once you identify the value, do not dwell on whether the crypto circle will collapse; even if we want it to vanish, Trump will not allow it to go down that path. If you believe there is still value in this market, then for Bitcoin, even if it can dip around the 60,000 mark, the spike will not touch the 50,000 range; the appearance of new lows can only be spikes, and the subsequent recovery will certainly be stronger than the previous round's six thousand level. Of course, there will definitely be lower positions than current prices, and further short positions may arise. Old Cui only reminds you not to always think about lower positions. If you believe in the value of the crypto circle, subsequent rises will occur; any entry price is not too high. This year, Old Cui estimates that there will be new highs, and if there are still certain holdings at the current price, Bitcoin is the optimal choice, as its performance and returns this year will be notable. Over the next month or two, do not hold too high expectations; it is highly likely to maintain steady fluctuations, and gradual upward movement is the likely outcome.
Original creation WeChat public account: Old Cui Talks about Coins. For help, please contact directly.
Old Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess. A master can see five, seven, or even several dozen moves ahead, while a novice can only see two or three moves. The skilled consider the overall situation and the grand trends, not fixating on one piece or one square, with the ultimate goal of winning, while the unskilled will fight for every inch of territory, frequently switching between bullish and bearish, focused only on short-term gains, leading to frequent struggles.
This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute a trading suggestion. Any trading based on it is at your own risk!
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