📈 Event Review

During a trading session on February 15, the price of ETH experienced a dramatic fluctuation. The market quickly shifted from a high position to a low position within a short period and then showed some rebound. Initially, the price of ETH plummeted from about $2060 to $2017, then continued to decline, reaching $2009, before finally rebounding to about $2024.49 at 21:24. Meanwhile, some heavily invested institutions and whale funds in the market showed increased activity, with the known whale address 0x28eF withdrawing approximately 7,301 ETH from the exchange in nearly 8 hours, amounting to around $15.14 million. This series of events sparked widespread discussion in the market about risk exposure adjustments and profit-taking, while also intensifying the pressure of narrowing liquidity.

⏰ Timeline

• 20:45: The price of ETH started to plummet, dropping from about $2060 to $2017 in 11 minutes, a decline of 2.10%.
• 20:49: Key heavy positions showed movement, with whale address 0x28eF withdrawing 7,301 ETH (approximately $15.14 million) from the exchange, suspected to be for risk adjustment or profit-taking.
• 21:00: The price of ETH further dipped, falling from $2017 to $2009, totaling a decline of about 0.39%.
• 21:24: The market showed some rebound, with the price of ETH rising to about $2024.49, and the market temporarily stabilized.

🔍 Reason Analysis

The sharp fluctuation in the market is mainly attributed to two aspects:

1. Capital Movement
   Institutions and whale funds have frequently adjusted their positions recently, with a typical case being the large ETH withdrawal operation by whale address 0x28eF. Such actions are often interpreted by the market as profit-taking or a reduction of risk exposure, leading to a rapid contraction in liquidity and exacerbating downward pressure in the market.

2. Macro Economic and Regulatory Uncertainty
   Recent U.S. employment and CPI data, along with the ongoing discussions around increasing crypto regulations globally, have resulted in a decline in overall market risk appetite. In this context, investors are becoming more cautious, further driving the drastic price fluctuations.

📊 Technical Analysis

Based on the observation of the 45-minute K-line chart of Binance's USDT perpetual contract from the ETH/USDT trading pair, the current technical indicators show the following characteristics:

• Clear Oversold Signal

• The RSI value has fallen below 30, indicating the market has entered the oversold zone, potentially providing conditions for a rebound in the short term.

• The price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, and the %B indicator has fallen below 0.0, suggesting that the current price is at an extreme low level.

• Indicators Show Panic Selling

• The KDJ indicator is in the oversold area and shows convergence, suggesting that selling pressure may weaken in the short term.

• The OBV indicator shows an increase in selling power, further supporting the signs of capital outflow.

• Trade volume surged nearly 480%, coupled with price declines, forming a strong panic selling signal. Even though some moving average configurations suggest a possible short-term rebound, overall, the bearish arrangement remains apparent.

• Moving Average System and Momentum Indicators

• The price has consistently stayed below MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50 moving averages, all showing a bear arrangement, confirming the downward trend.

• The MACD histogram continues to shrink, indicating an increase in bearish momentum.

In summary, while the technical pattern in the 45-minute cycle shows some rebound potential in the oversold area, overall, the market still faces considerable downside risks in the short term.

🔮 Market Outlook

In the short term, as technical indicators indicate that the market is in an oversold state, if buying gradually resumes, it may trigger a brief rebound. However, considering the recent significant repositioning by institutional funds, narrowing market liquidity, and uncertainties in the macroeconomic and policy environment, investors need to remain highly vigilant.

In the medium to long term, if the macroeconomic environment or crypto market regulations have positive changes, the risk appetite is expected to improve, and ETH may have an opportunity for stabilization and rebound. However, under the current circumstances, volatility remains the dominant theme in the market, and investors are advised to closely monitor institutional movements and key technical indicators, reasonably allocate positions, and guard against potential risks.

Overall, ETH in this round of fluctuations has demonstrated signals of oversold-induced rebounds while also exposing concerns about excessively high risk exposure in the market. Only by confirming a complete warming of market sentiment and recovery of liquidity should cautious observation and gradual adjustment of positions remain the current more prudent operational strategy.

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